iwt scenario 1 - albany cstarcstar.cestm.albany.edu/iwt/fall2014/scenario1.pdf · scenario 1 –...

IWT – Scenario 1

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Integrated Warning Team Workshop

National Weather Service Albany, NY

October 31, 2014

Scenario 1 – Timeline

November 23-27 2

3

Sun

24

Mon

25

Tue

26

27

Wed Thu Thanksgiving

Day

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Sunday, Nov. 23 @ 430 pm

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IWT – Scenario 1

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NWS Albany Weather Update

Monday Nov 24, 2014 5 AM

IWT – Scenario 1

Mon, Nov. 24 @ 5 am

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Overview (From Area Forecast Discussion): A storm system will track from the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday up the spine of the Appalachian Mountains to southern Quebec near Montreal by Friday. This storm is expected to bring a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall to the Albany forecast area covering eastern NY and western New England: Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day.

Monday, Nov. 24 @ 5 am

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Similar thinking at this point

Forecast Discussion continues to mention heavy rain event with deep fetch of Gulf and Atlantic moisture coupled with strong dynamics to system.

IWT – Scenario 1

Mon, Nov. 24 @ 5 am

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Total Rainfall Forecast 1 PM Wednesday Through 1 PM Friday (1.5-2.5 inches)

Two Day

IWT – Scenario 1

Mon, Nov. 24 @ 5 am

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Summary: A large storm system is expected to bring a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall to the Albany forecast area Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. Impacts: Significant river rises with the possibility of a few river forecast points reaching flood stage. Localized urban, street and poor drainage flooding is possible. No conference calls planned at this time. We will update around 5 PM this evening.

Morning Social Media Update

Cold Rain Expected Wednesday into

Thanksgiving Day

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Expected Rainfall Totals 1 pm Wed through 1 pm Fri

1.5” to 2.5”of rain expected across the entire area Urban and poor drainage flooding can be expected with isolated river flooding possible as well Stay tuned for more updates throughout the week

IWT – Scenario 1

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NWS Albany Weather Update

Monday Nov 24, 2014 5 PM

IWT – Scenario 1

Mon, Nov. 24 @ 5 pm

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Overview: A storm system will track from the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday to northern New England by Friday. This storm is expected to bring widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to the Albany forecast area Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. Note: Some snow is possible over the higher terrain.

IWT – Scenario 1

Mon, Nov. 24 @ 5 pm

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Total Rainfall Forecast 1 PM Wednesday Through 1 PM Friday

IWT – Scenario 1

Mon, Nov. 24 @ 5 pm

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Total Snowfall Forecast 1 PM Wednesday Through 1 PM Friday

Monday, Nov. 24 @ 5 pm

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Snow possibilities starting to increase!!!

IWT – Scenario 1

Mon, Nov. 24 @ 5 pm

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Summary: A large storm system will track from the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday to northern New England by Friday. This storm is expected to bring widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to the Albany forecast area Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day with some snow possible over the higher terrain. Impacts: Significant river rises with the possibility of some river forecast points reaching minor flood stage. Localized urban, street and poor drainage flooding is possible. No conference calls planned at this time. We will update around 5 AM tomorrow.

Afternoon Social Media Update

Rain & Mountain Snow Wednesday into

Thanksgiving Day

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Storm Total Expected Precipitation

Heavy Rain is still expected to impact the region between Wednesday & Thanksgiving Model guidance is now indicating the rain may change to a heavy wet snow over the high terrain, mainly over 1500 feet Stay tuned for more updates throughout the week

Storm Total Expected Snowfall

Several inches of snow possible across the Catskills, Berkshires & Greens

IWT – Scenario 1

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NWS Albany Weather Update

Tuesday Nov 25, 2014 5 AM

IWT – Scenario 1

Tue, Nov. 25 @ 5 am

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Overview: A storm system will track from the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday to northern New England by Friday. This storm is expected to bring widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to the Albany forecast area Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. Some heavy wet snow is possible over the higher terrain. Snow may stick better at night and when precipitation is heavier.

IWT – Scenario 1

Tue, Nov. 25 @ 5 am

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Total Rainfall Forecast 1 PM Wednesday Through 1 PM Friday

IWT – Scenario 1

Tue, Nov. 25 @ 5 am

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Total Snowfall Forecast 1 PM Wednesday Through 1 PM Friday

IWT – Scenario 1

Tue, Nov. 25 @ 5 am

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Summary: A large storm system will track from the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday to northern New England by Friday. This storm is expected to bring widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to the Albany forecast area Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day with some snow possible over the higher terrain. Impacts: Significant river rises with the possibility of some river forecast points reaching minor flood stage. Localized urban, street and poor drainage flooding is possible. No conference calls planned at this time. We will update around 5 PM today.

IWT – Scenario 1

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NWS Albany Weather Update

Tuesday Nov 25, 2014 5 PM

IWT – Scenario 1

Tue, Nov. 25 @ 5 pm

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Overview: A storm system will track from the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday to New England by Friday. This storm is expected to bring widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to the Albany forecast area Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. Note: Some snow is now possible over our entire forecast area with heavier accumulations possible over the higher terrain.

IWT – Scenario 1

Tue, Nov. 25 @ 5 pm

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Total Rainfall Forecast 1 PM Wednesday Through 1 PM Friday

IWT – Scenario 1

Tue, Nov. 25 @ 5 pm

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Total Snowfall Forecast 1 PM Wednesday Through 1 PM Friday

IWT – Scenario 1

Tue, Nov. 25 @ 5 pm

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Summary: A large storm system will track from the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday to New England by Friday. This storm is expected to bring widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to the Albany forecast area Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day with some snow now expected in all areas and heavier snow possible over the higher terrain. Impacts: Higher elevations may see enough accumulation of heavy wet snow for isolated to scattered power outages. Localized urban, street and poor drainage flooding is possible (lower elevations). Larger river flood threat is diminished.

IWT – Scenario 1

Tue, Nov. 25 @ 5 pm

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Conference Calls: We will hold conference calls for New York at 11:30 AM tomorrow, and for New England at 12:00 PM.

IWT – Scenario 1

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NWS Albany Weather Update

Wednesday Nov 26, 2014 11 AM

IWT – Scenario 1

Wed, Nov. 26 @11 am

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Overview: Heavy snow now expected for the Albany Forecast Area late Tomorrow into Thanksgiving Day. Winter Storm warning has been issued for the entire Area except northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties. Winds 15-25 MPH will cause blowing and drifting of snow. Heavy wet snow may cause power outages across far southern part of forecast area.

IWT – Scenario 1

Wed, Nov. 26 @ 11 am

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Surface Map: 7 am Thursday Major coastal low just south of Long Island

Wednesday, Nov. 26 @ 11 am

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http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=1&ftype=probabilities

IWT – Scenario 1

Wed, Nov. 26 @ 11 am

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Winter Storm Warning in most of area, except Winter Weather Advisory in the southern Adirondacks

IWT – Scenario 1

Wed, Nov. 26 @11 am

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IWT – Scenario 1

WED, Nov. 26 @ 11 am

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Total Snowfall Forecast 1 PM Wednesday Through 1 PM Friday

Heavy, wet snow. Possible power outages.

IWT – Scenario 1

Wed, Nov. 26 @11 am

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Summary: Heavy snow now expected for the Albany Forecast Area late Tomorrow (busy travel day) into Thanksgiving Day. Winter Storm warning has been issued for the entire Area except northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties. Winds 15-25 MPH will cause blowing and drifting of snow. Heavy wet snow may cause power outages across far southern part of forecast area. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches possible in heavy bands

IWT – Scenario 1

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What happened?

Troy, NY, Friday, Nov 26 The Times Record

IWT – Scenario 1

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What happened?

IWT – Scenario 1

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Record November snowfall at Albany, NY – 22.5 inches (1971) .

30 inches of snow reported at some locations in Albany forecast area. Thousands of stranded motorists in hundreds of cars on area roads including Interstates on Thanksgiving day. Airports closed. Snow was generally light and fluffy (13+:1 ratio at Albany)

Blowing and drifting was a problem – large drifts and whiteouts at times.

Heavy wet snow from Orange County, NY across southern Dutchess County, NY to Litchfield County, CT where numerous power outages were reported (~100,000).

Final Snowfall Totals

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IWT – Scenario 1

Discussion

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Weather Prediction Center:

Probabilistic Snowfall Graphics: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=24&ptype=snow

Probabilistic Freezing Rain (Glaze) Accumulation Graphics: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=24&ptype=icez

Probabilistic Rainfall Graphics: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pqpf/conus_hpc_pqpf.php

NWS Albany Winter Weather Page:

http://www.weather.gov/aly/EMwinter

NWS Mobile Weather http://mobile.weather.gov

NWS Chat https://nwschat.weather.gov/live/