is longevity affordable? presentation at the institute for ethics and emerging technologies pre-...

Is Longevity Affordable?

Presentation at the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies pre-

conference, Chicago July 23, 2007

Pro-mortalism 1

“Life extension seems to me a perfect example of something that is a negative externality, meaning that it is individually rational and desirable but it has costs for society that can be negative."

-- Francis Fukuyama, AAAS, 2003

Pro-mortalism 2

“The worst possible way to resolve (the question of life extension) is to leave it up to individual choice. There is no known social good coming from the conquest of death.”

-- Daniel Callahan, Hastings Center, 2000

Pro-mortalism 3

“The finitude of human life is a blessing for every human individual, whether he knows it or not.”

--Leon Kass, First Things, “L’Chaim and Its Limits: Why Not Immortality,” 2002

“The Coming Death Shortage,” The Atlantic Monthly, May 2005

"Pushing the outer limits of lifespan will force the world to confront a situation no society has ever faced before: an acute shortage of dead people.”

-- Charles Mann

Benefits v. Costs of Longevity

-- Benefits of increased lifespan easily outweigh costs

--Longevity treatments are likely to be affordable

--Longevity will help solve social and economic problems

Life expectancy at birth and age 50, United States, 1900-2000

Cumulative value of longevity gains since 1900: Men and Women

Aggregate Economic Gains From Reductions in Mortality,1970-2000

Estimated Gains Net of the Increase in Health Expenditures 1970-2000

Is medical spending to increase longevity worth it?

“Between 1970 and 2000 increased longevity yielded a ‘gross’ social value of $95 trillion, while th capitalized value of medical expenditures grew by $34 billion, leaving a net gain of $61 trillion.”

Are we spending enough on mortality reduction research?

Value of a 10% reduction in all cause mortality is worth $18 trillion dollars.

Federal health research was $28 billion in 2005.

Capitalizing this expenditure at 3%, it is roughly equal to $1 trillion value of a 1% reduction in mortality from cancer and heart disease.

What is the value of increasing healthspan?

“In Pursuit of the Longevity Dividend” by Olshansky, Perry, Miller, & Butler

“We envision a goal that is realistically achievable: a modest deceleration in the rate of aging sufficient to delay all aging-related diseases and disorders by about seven years.”

Can we afford future anti-aging treatments?

“In higher income countries, there appears to be little room for optimism that the social benefits of an anti-ageing breakthrough will exceed the societal costs.”

--Charles McConnell & Leigh Turner, EMBO Reports, 2005

Can we afford future anti-aging treatments?

2005 Death Shortage -- $15,000 x 80 million oldsters = $1.2 trillion

2075 EPF– total U.S. GDP $128 trillion

$1.2 trillion is 1% of GDP

2075 -- $15,000 x 480 million Americans = 7.2 trillion. Still less than 7% of GDP

Consumption Trends in U.S. 1875 compared

to 1995, -- Robert Fogel, 1998

Share of Population of Working Age--East Asia

and Sub-Saharan Africa, 1950-2050

Longevity Soon?

“I would be disappointed if we were all born one generation too early.”

-- David Sinclair, co-founder, Sirtris Pharmaceuticals, July 2005