iraq/iran as case studies
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Iraq/Iran as Case Studies
JOGMEC Seminar 2018
Big CaveatThis is my “Guess” – not “Fact”
No One Can Predict the Future
Trump Likes to Be Unpredictable
Your Guess is as Good as Mine!
Table of ContentsUS Policy = Trump Policy
Domestic Drivers of Trump Policy
Regional Voices on Trump Policy
Policy Results for Iraq
Policy Results for Iran
Too Few Hands4,000 Political Appointee Positions
1,200 Need Senate OK – 635 Key Positions
116 at State Dept; 53 at Defense Dept.
22 at Energy; 27 at Treasury; 11 at USAID
As of January 2018 – 245 Confirmed (38%)
146 Waiting (22%); 242 Not Nominated
Key Positions at 12 Months
0%
50%
100%
Trump Obama Bush Position Confirmed Position Empty
Policy People Missing
Trump’s Response
"Let me tell you, the one that matters is me, I'm the only one that matters.
Because when it comes to it that's what the policy is going to be.”
3 November 2017
Trump’s Policy Reactive Not Proactive – 壁打ち Not 将棋
No Strategic Vision – “Make America Great Again”Changes Daily – Delivered by TweetKey Factor is Trump’s Personal Image - and “Winning”Defined as Better/Smarter than Obama/Bush/Hillary
Input from Cable TVNo Interest in History; Does Not Read
Keyed to Supporter-Base IssuesGoal to Preserve, Not Expand Support
IsraelAIPAC (American Israeli Public Affairs Committee) “The mission of AIPAC is to strengthen, protect and
promote the U.S.-Israel relationship in ways that enhance the security of the United States and Israel.”
March 2016 – 4 of 5 Presidential candidates at AIPAC conference: Trump, Clinton, Cruz and Kasich. Only Bernie Sanders missing. Only Sanders is Jewish.
Trump promises to move US Embassy to Jerusalem. Calls Iran “biggest sponsor of terrorism in the world.”
Saudi ArabiaMoney Behind Many DC-Think TanksSaudi American Public Relations Affairs Committee The Arabia Foundation - Arab Gulf States InstituteMiddle East Policy Council - Middle East Institute
US-Saudi Arabian Business Council – “Who’s Who”Exxon, Chevron, Boeing, Lockheed, GE, Bechtel, FluorMorgan Stanley, Citigroup, Dow Chemical, Ford, Pepsi
Shares with Israel a “Common Threat” in Iran; Partners in Trump’s “Ultimate Deal” for Middle East
Now Let’s Look at Iraq/Iran
Iraq
2,5003,050 3,400 3,700
4,087
6,812
8,890
0
5,000
10,000
Jan-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Dec-16 Dec-17*
US Military Returns to Iraq
Peak (2007): 170,000
With Troops Come Contractors
250600
1,400
2,0282,485
2,9923,592
2,300
3,0503,400
3,7004,087
4,5655,165
0
2000
4000
6000
Jan-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Oct-16
US Defense Contractor Growth in Iraq
US Contractors US Troops
But US Companies Stay Away BP (United Kingdom) CNOOC (China) CNPC (China) Crescent Petroleum (UAE) Dana Gas (UAE) Daqing (China) Dragon Oil (UAE) Eni (Italy) ExxonMobil (US) Gazprom (Russia) Geo-Jade Petroleum (China) Itochu (Japan) JSOC Bashneft (Russia)
Kogas (South Korea) Lukoil (Russia) ONGC Videsh (India) Pakistan Petroleum (Pakistan) Pertamina (Indonesia) Petronas (Malaysia) Shell (Netherlands/UK) Sinopec (China) Schlumberger (US) UEG (China) Total (France) Zarubezhneft (Russia) Zhenhua Oil (China)
Mosul – November 2015
Mosul – July 2017
Destruction Widespread
$100 Billion – From Where?PM Abadi – $100 Billion Needed – “We cannot
provide it from our own budget” – 25 January 2018
Total US Aid since 2014 totals $1.7 Billion – $600 Million in 2017 called “short term focus” (anti-ISIS)
USAID Budget for 2018 – 32% Cut Expected
“For the long term, Iraq is going to have to provide these services” – USAID Counselor, December 2017
2017 – Hello Riyadh!
With US ApplauseUS Secretary of State Tillerson “This new reopening of relations between Saudi Arabia
and Iraq is extremely important to stability of the region and to the future of Iraq. There will be new economic opportunities created from the Saudi-Iraqi agreement.”
Saudi Foreign Minister Al-Jubeir “Saudi Arabia and Iraq have historic, familial, and
economic ties. We are neighbors sharing a long border. We have similar ambitions, we are both oil producers, and we are both Arab countries.”
US Policy – Bullets OK; Aid NOGive US Military Free Hand to Defeat ISISEstimates of 1,000 ISIS fighters still active
Don’t Repeat Mistakes of Past PresidentsBush – “Nation Building”; Obama – Disengagement
Oppose Iran’s Influence; Support Saudi TiesKeep PM Abadi in Power (May 2018 Election)Prevent Return of former PM Maliki (“Iran's Puppet”)
But No US Aid Money – No “Soft-Power”Let Saudis Pay for Reconstruction – “America First!”
Now the Hard One - Iran
Iran – As the EU Sees It
For Good Reason
30%28%
21%
8%5%
8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
China EU India Japan South Korea Other
Iran Oil Exports: Nov - Dec 2017
No US Business Lobby
0
5
10
15
20
25
2014 2015 2016 2017 (Jan - Nov)*
Billi
on U
SD
Iran Imports and Exports: US vs EU
US Total Trade EU Total Trade
Breakdown of US NumbersIran total 2017 trade with US - $130 Million,
down from $172 Million in 2016
2/3rds - US exports of agricultural goods, particularly soybeans/soybean oil
US imports from Iran - almost 100% art work and carpets (Persian rugs)
No Fortune 500 names! No Lobby Power!
But What About Boeing?Boeing Contracts for 110 Commercial Aircraft – worth
$20 Billion – and “Tens of Thousands” of Jobs (Boeing Claims in 2016)
License Still Under Review – Chances Look Dim
But, Boeing Stock Rose 107% in Last 12 Months
Prospects of Higher Defense Spending Offset Iran?
“As the government provides us details and guidance, we will adjust our activities if required” (Boeing)
Boeing Not Worried - 107% Up
Meanwhile – New SanctionsUS Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Iran 10 times in last 12 months:
Jan 12, 2018 – Human Rights Jan 04, 2018 – Missile Program Nov 20, 2017 – IRGC and Counterfeit Currency Oct 13, 2017 – IRGC and Global Terrorism Sep 14, 2017 – Cyber-Crime Jul 28, 2017 – Missile Program Jul 18, 2017 – Transnational Criminal Activity May 17, 2017 – Missile Program Apr 13, 2017 – Human Rights Feb 03, 2017 – Missile Program
JCPOA - Nuclear Deal“Certification” – Every 90 daysTrump “Certified” Twice – 18 April 2017, 17 July 2017Trump “De-Certified” Last Time – 13 October 2017Congress Failed to Take Action under 60-day windowCertification Due Again in Mid-March – if not, so what?
“Sanctions Waiver” – Every 120 daysTrump “Waived” 3 Times – 17 May, 14 Sept, 12 Jan 2018 Next Deadline – 12 May 2018 – Trumps says ‘Not Again’Refusal to waive would re-impose severe sanctions
Nuclear Deal = Obama-CarePrimary Aim – Undo Obama “Success”Encouraged by Anti-Iran Base and Regional Voices
Calls Both a “Bad Deal” – “Tear-Up!”But No Replacement; Doesn’t Want ResponsibilitySeek to Undo Both Programs Indirectly
In Iran Deal, this Means:Encourage Iran Itself to Withdraw by Other PressureDiscourage Foreign Investors by Continued Uncertainty
Policy Result – Hostile But Unclear
Near-Term “Guess” No Clarity on JCPOA or Nuclear Sanctions
Impede Iranian Access to Global Market
Increase Non-Nuclear Sanctions
Encourage Internal Protests as Possible
Hope for Favorable Internal Changes
Bottom LineNo One Can Predict Future US Policy
Don’t Expect Certainty – Won’t Come
Make Choices Based on “Best Guess”
Don’t Use PowerPoint for that Guess!
Only Easy Questions Please!
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