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Understanding the polls: Ipsos MORI’s electionBPC ENQUIRY 19 JUNE
Before we start1. LOSE BATHWATER, KEEP BABY2. FOCUS ON WHAT HAPPENED IN OUR
POLLS 3. STILL AT DIAGNOSIS STAGE – MORE TO
LEARN FROM OUR/BPC REVIEW
Reminder of our approach
• Telephone RDD (c 80% landline, 20% mobile), GB adults 18+
• Quotas on age, gender, region, work status, social grade
• Weights on age x gender, work status x gender, region, ethnicity, tenure, car in h/hold, public/private sector, social grade
• Two-part voting intention: “How would you vote in a General Election tomorrow”, and “Which party are you most inclined to support” to undecided/refuseds
• Publish two voting intention figures: headline based on all absolutely certain to vote (10/10 on a ten-point scale) and all voters
• Further additions to final poll: small number of recalls, exclude non-registered, include postal voters, re-allocate refusals according to newspaper readership
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4
Our final poll – all parties less than 2% points away from actual – except Labour, overestimated
Base: 862 British adults who are registered and certain to vote 5 th -6th May 2015
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/Ipsos MORI calculations from BBC reports
36%
35%
11%
5%8%5%
Ipsos MORI final poll GB final result
Conservative lead = +1 Conservative lead = +6.5
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
37.7%
31.2%
12.9%
3.8%8.1%
6.4%
5
‘Shy Tories’ not our problem – instead over-claim among LabourHOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Base: 1,186 British adults 18+, 5th – 6th May 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/Ipsos MORI calculations from BBC reports
Cons
Lab
11.3
9.3
12.5
12.2
Implied from final poll ActualVotes
(millions)
Turnout lower than we predicted. Normally c10 percentage points lower than claimed, but 16 percentage points in 2015
6
-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 050
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
2015
2010
2005
Days before election
% certain to vote
-9ppt
-11ppt
-16ppt
Difference between actual turnout and certainty to vote
2005
2010
30%
33%
39%
32%
Q. Which party do you think has the best policies on managing the economy: the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?
Not a new issue of course – and in previous elections certainty of voting filter was successfulIPSOS MORI FINAL POLLS – RAW (WEIGHTED) AND FINAL PREDICTIONS
All with voting intention Final projection% certain to vote
2005
2010
33%
36%
38%
29%
7682
7485
The increase in claimed turnout came mainly from Labour supporters – question worked in 2010, but less successful in differentiating in 2015?
Actual Turnout
Certain to vote - Labour
Certain to vote - Conservative
Certain to vote
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
65.3
74
85
76
66.4
86
84
82
20152010
Bas: All registered adults 18+ (1,096) 5-6 May 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/House of Commons
HOW LIKELY WILL YOU BE TO VOTE IN AN IMMEDIATE GENERAL ELECTION, ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10? 8HOW LIKELY WOULD YOU BE TO VOTE ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10?
IF HAD THE SAME DIFFERENTIAL IN 2015 AS IN 2010, WOULD HAVE HAD CONSERVATIVE 38% LABOUR 32%
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The gap between Labour and Conservative supporters’ certainty to vote closed just after the 2010 election% OF SUPPORTERS “ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO VOTE”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Jan
11
May
11
Sep
11
Jan
12
May
12
Sep
12
Jan
13
May
13
Sep
13
Jan
14
May
14
Sep
14
Jan
15
May
150%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.840.86
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
2010 General Election
Predicting voter turnout one of the key issues facing pollsters worldwide….
10
11
If we had taken more account of past voting behaviour (using experimental questions from Ipsos’ international experience)?
Base: 862 British adults who are registered and certain to vote 5 th -6th May 2015809 British adults who are registered, always/usually/depends vote in GEs and 9/10 certain to vote
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
36%
35%
11%
5%8%5%
Final poll – all ‘absolutely certain to vote’ Based on those who always/usually depends vote in general elections and 9/10 certain to vote
Average error = 1.7 Average error = 0.8
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
37%
32%
11%
5%9%
6%
Although will continue to explore other angles – and look forward to hearing findings from this enquiry!
• Further refinements on turnout
• Late swing
• Question order/wording
• Sampling/weighting improvements
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Thanks for listening
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