investor presentation - nutrien · 2018. 5. 17. · investor presentation . bmo capital markets 13....
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Investor Presentation BMO Capital Markets 13th Annual Farm to Market Conference May 2018
May 15, 2018
2 Forward Looking Statements Certain statements and other information included in this presentation constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under applicable securities laws (such statements are often accompanied by words such as "anticipate", “forecast”, "expect", "believe", "may", "will", "should", "estimate", "intend" or other similar words). All statements in this presentation, other than those relating to historical information or current conditions, are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: Nutrien's 2018 annual and first half guidance, including expectations regarding our diluted earnings per share and EBITDA (both consolidated and by segment); expectations regarding net proceeds to be realized from the on-going sale of equity interests; capital spending expectations for 2018; expectations regarding performance of our business segments in 2018; our market outlook for 2018, including potash, nitrogen and phosphate outlook and including anticipated supply and demand for our products and services, expected market and industry conditions with respect to crop nutrient application rates, planted acres, crop mix, prices and the impact of currency fluctuations and import and export volumes; expectations regarding completion of previously announced expansion projects (including timing and volumes of production associated therewith) and acquisitions and divestitures; and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp, including timing thereof. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements. All of the forward-looking statements are qualified by the assumptions that are stated or inherent in such forward-looking statements, including the assumptions referred to below and elsewhere in this document. Although Nutrien believes that these assumptions are reasonable, this list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the forward-looking statements and the reader should not place an undue reliance on these assumptions and such forward-looking statements. The additional key assumptions that have been made include, among other things, assumptions with respect to Nutrien's ability to successfully integrate and realize the anticipated benefits of its already completed (including the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp) and future acquisitions, and that we will be able to implement our standards, controls, procedures and policies at any acquired businesses to realize the expected synergies; that future business, regulatory and industry conditions will be within the parameters expected by Nutrien, including with respect to prices, margins, demand, supply, product availability, supplier agreements, availability and cost of labor and interest, exchange and effective tax rates; the completion of our expansion projects on schedule, as planned and on budget; assumptions with respect to global economic conditions and the accuracy of our market outlook expectations for 2018 and in the future (including as outlined under “Market Outlook”); the adequacy of our cash generated from operations and our ability to access our credit facilities or capital markets for additional sources of financing; our ability to identify suitable candidates for acquisitions and divestitures and negotiate acceptable terms; ability to maintain investment grade rating and achieve our performance targets; assumptions in respect of our ability to sell equity positions, including the ability to find suitable buyers at expected prices and successfully complete such transactions in a timely manner; the receipt, on time, of all necessary permits, utilities and project approvals with respect to our expansion projects and that we will have the resources necessary to meet the projects’ approach. Events or circumstances that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: general global economic, market and business conditions; the failure to successfully integrate and realize the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp, including within the expected timeframe; weather conditions, including impacts from regional flooding and/or drought conditions; crop planted acreage, yield and prices; the supply and demand and price levels for our products; governmental and regulatory requirements and actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government policy, government ownership requirements, changes in environmental, tax and other laws or regulations and the interpretation thereof; political risks, including civil unrest, actions by armed groups or conflict and malicious acts including terrorism; the occurrence of a major environmental or safety incident; innovation and security risks related to our systems; the inability to find suitable buyers for our equity positions and counterparty and transaction risk associated therewith; regional natural gas supply restrictions; counterparty and sovereign risk; delays in completion of turnarounds at our major facilities; gas supply interruptions at our Egyptian and Argentinian facilities; any significant impairment of the carrying value of certain assets; risks related to reputational loss; certain complications that may arise in our mining processes; the ability to attract, engage and retain skilled employees and strikes or other forms of work stoppages; and other risk factors detailed from time to time in Agrium, PotashCorp and Nutrien reports filed with the Canadian securities regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States, including those disclosed in Nutrien’s business acquisition report dated February 20, 2018, related to the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp. The purpose of our expected diluted earnings per share, consolidated EBITDA and EBITDA by segment guidance range is to assist readers in understanding our expected and targeted financial results, and this information may not be appropriate for other purposes. Non-IFRS Financial Measures Advisory We consider net (loss) earnings from continuing operations before finance costs, income tax (recovery) expense and depreciation and amortization("EBITDA") and adjusted net earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA, all of which are non-IFRS financial measures, to provide useful information to both management and investors in measuring our financial performance and financial condition. Refer to the disclosure under the heading “Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations” included in our press release dated May 7, 2018 announcing our first quarter 2018 results, as filed on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and EDGAR at www.sec.gov under our corporate profile, for a reconciliation of these non-IFRS measures to the most directly comparable measures calculated in accordance with IFRS and for a further discussion of how these measures are calculated and their usefulness to users including management. Non-IFRS financial measures are not recognized measures under IFRS and our method of calculation may not be comparable to that of other companies. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. The purpose of our expected diluted earnings per share, consolidated EBITDA and EBITDA guidance range is to assist readers in understanding our expected and targeted financial results, and this information may not be appropriate for other purposes. Nutrien disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this document as a result of new information or future events, except as may be required under applicable U.S. federal securities laws or applicable Canadian securities legislation.
Nutrien Announces Sales of SQM A Shareholdings
Definitive Agreement with
Tianqi for A Shares of SQM
@ $65/sh
Subject to Customary
Closing Conditions & Regulatory Approval
Nutrien Retains
Ownership of B Shares and
Expects to Divest in Due
Course
Expect to Close Sale in 2018
May 17, 2018 FOOTNOTES
3
“This agreement marks another key integration milestone for Nutrien, at an excellent valuation. With growing free cash flow, combined with the significant proceeds from this sale, this will further enhance our balance sheet and liquidity, and places us in a strong position to
execute on our capital allocation priorities.”
Nutrien expects to receive ~$4.1 billion in gross proceeds from the sale of the A shares
Represents an approximate 15% premium on shares
Expect to divest NTR’s remaining 20.2 million B shares in due course – current market price ~$58/sh
Presentation Outline
May 17, 2018
4
1 Nutrien Overview and Vision
2 Fundamentals and Outlook
3
Capital Allocation 4
1
Strategy and Opportunities
Our Vision is to be the Leading Global Agribusiness Company
May 17, 2018
5
$500 million in run rate synergies expected to be achieved by the end of 2019; $150 million run rate achieved as at March 31, 2018
Leading ag platform provides earnings stability & multiple avenues for growth (geographic, product and technology) 1
2
Significant free cash flow and strong balance sheet provides opportunity for meaningful shareholder returns and growth 3
Significant potential upside to a recovery in crop nutrient markets; $25/mt increase in fertilizer prices expected to generate ~$650M in additional EBITDA 4
Nutrien Has a Unique Global Footprint and Well Positioned Assets 6
May 17, 2018
LEGEND:
RETAIL
POTASH
NITROGEN
PHOSPHATE
ESN®
GRANULATION
LOVELAND PRODUCTS AND AFFILIATED FACILITIES
AGRICHEM
INVESTMENTS AND JV’S
OFFICES
South America North American Integrated Footprint
Australia
>26Mmt Combined sales tonnes of potash,
nitrogen, phosphate & sulfate1
$500M Expected annual
synergies by end of 2019
$1.60 Annual dividend
per share2
~1,600 Retail locations in 7 countries
5% NCIB in place
through February 2019
NOTE: European distribution and our ownership stakes in Sinofert and the MOPCO nitrogen facility are not included on these maps.
1 Excluding sales tonnes from Conda and North Bend
2 Based on Nutrien quarterly dividend declared February 20, 2018. Future dividends subject to board discretion.
~33%
~25% ~7%
~35%
Diversified Portfolio Provides Stability and Multiple Avenues for Growth
May 17, 2018
7
Retail
Phosphate and Sulfate Nitrogen
Potash
2017 Adjusted Combined EBITDA Split1,2
1 Adjusted EBITDA is calculated as net (loss) earnings from continuing operations before finance costs, income tax (recovery) expense and depreciation and amortization, Merger and related costs, and impairment losses 2 Reflects adjusted combined EBITDA, which is derived from historical financial information of PotashCorp and Agrium and do not include the effects of a) intersegment eliminations, b) the equity earnings and operating results of completed or anticipated divestitures in connection with the merger, or c) the impairment charge related to Phosphate, and merger-related costs. Determination of Adjusted Combined EBITDA required allocation of historical amounts on a basis consistent with how Nutrien will report financial information in the future. This information does not purport to project the future operating results of Nutrien, and is not necessarily indicative of what Nutrien’s results of operations would have been had the merger been completed on January 1, 2017. 3 Cash provided by operating activities from continuing operations excluding the impact of net changes in non-cash working capital less sustaining capital expenditures. 4 Calculated as (EBITDA less sustaining capital)/ EBITDA. 2018F based on mid-point of guidance as of May 7, 2018. 5 Based on Nutrien quarterly dividend declared February 20, 2018. Future dividends subject to board discretion.
USD billions (unless otherwise noted)
2017 Adjusted Combined
Revenue $18.2
EBITDA1 $2.9
Free Cash Flow 3 $1.3
Sustaining Capital $1.0
Free Cash Flow Conversion4
66% (2017) ~70% (2018F)
Annual Dividend per Share5 $1.60
Summary Financial Performance
~20% increase in 2018 annual EBITDA guidance versus combined 2017
Fundamentals and Outlook
INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 17, 2018
Supportive U.S. Grower Economics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450Corn Soybeans Wheat Cotton
U.S. Cash Grower Margins1
US$/Acre
Prospective 2018 cash margins for major crops have improved over the past quarter
Source: USDA, Green Markets, CME Group, Nutrien 1 2017/18 margins are based on spot cash crop prices and estimated average fertilizer costs; 2018/19 margins are based on new crop 2018 futures prices less estimated basis and estimated spot retail fertilizer prices
May 16, 2018
9
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Relatively Tight Potash Supply & Demand 10
May 17, 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Demand Growth @ 3.0%/yrDemand Growth @ 2.8%/yrOperational Capability
Global Potash S&D Million Tonnes KCl
Global Utilization Rate1 Percent
Expect demand growth and capacity closures to offset capacity additions; operating rates expected to be at or above historical average
Demand Growth @ 2.8%/yr* Demand Growth @ 3.0%/yr*
Source: CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien 1 Based on estimated operational capability * Demand growth based on 20 year CAGR 2002 to 2022
Tightening Global Nitrogen Supply & Demand 11
May 17, 2018
Global Nitrogen S&D Million Tonnes Nitrogen
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180 Demand Operational Capability
Forecast improvement in nitrogen capacity utilization expected over the medium-term
Global Utilization Rate1 Percent
Source: CRU, Nutrien 1 Based on estimated operational capability. Adjusted for idled capacity in China and Eastern Europe. * Demand growth based on 20 year CAGR 2002 to 2022
Demand Growth @ 2.0%/yr*
Consistent growth in EBITDA margins achieved through Operational Excellence initiatives including proprietary product growth and footprint optimization
Retail: Long Term Growth of Margins and Earnings
May 17, 2018
12
$769 $951 $986
$1,119 $1,033 $1,091 $1,145 7.5%
8.3% 8.3% 8.6% 8.5%
9.3% 9.5%
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F
EBITDA Retail EBITDA Margin $1.2-1.3B
Retail EBITDA Margin Percent
Retail EBITDA Millions
Source: Nutrien
Strategy and Opportunities
INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 17, 2018
Progress on Strategic Priorities
May 16, 2018
14
• $150 million synergy run-rate achieved as at March 31, 2018. On track for expected $250 million run-rate by the end of 2018 and $500 million by the end of 2019
• Completed the divestment of ICL, announced buyer and purchase price for SQM A shares and progressing on APC
• Advanced production and distribution optimization plans across all business segments
Integration / Synergies
• Declared quarterly dividend (27 percent increase) and payout target of 40-60% of free cash flow after sustaining capital
• NCIB initiated and one-third complete. $500 million shares repurchased as of May 7, 2018
• Acquired 29 retail locations with estimated revenues of approx. $280 million
• Acquired Agrichem Brazil, a leading specialty nutrition and plant health company
• Launched an Integrated Digital Platform for growers
Capital Allocation
Significant Value Creation from Merger Synergies 15
$52 $150 $98
$42
$24
$32
$350
$83
$76
$93
$150
$125
$100
$125 $500
Distribution/Optimization
ProductionOptimization
Procurement SG&A 2019 Target EOY
Achieved run-rate synergy as at March 31, 2018 Balance of synergy target
Highly confident in the full realization of synergies by the end of 2019
++
+
May 16, 2018
Run-Rate Synergies US$ Millions
Source: Nutrien
One integrated portal streamlining access to all of Retail’s digital services and solutions
Offering leading-edge crop planning capabilities and precision ag tools
Allows growers to plan, order and receive product on one omni-channel
Future functionality under development; partnering with others to extend reach
May 16, 2018
Launched Nutrien Ag Solutions Digital Platform
Designed to augment our industry-leading distribution network, agronomic advice and services
Increase ease of use, save time for both grower and agronomist
Increase services offerings
Increase customer retention
Acquire new grower customers
16
Capital Allocation
INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 17, 2018
Multiple Levers to Generate Strong Free Cash Flow
May 17, 2018
18
Capture Identified Synergies
Stable and Growing
Retail Base
Equity Investment
Sales
$500M/year 1 Expect $50-$140M of EBITDA / Yr
~$4-5B estimate net of tax
Fertilizer prices are more than $100/mt lower than mid-cycle
(8 year avg prices)
Within Nutrien’s Control
External Factors: Leverage to Upside
If fertilizer prices rise $25/mt = ~$650M EBITDA If fertilizer prices rise $100/mt = ~$2.6B EBITDA
Capital Priorities
Value Adding Growth
• Increase share in existing markets (N.A & Australia)
• Focus on growing in Brazil • Expand proprietary
business; digital ag
Enhance Shareholder Returns
• Announced 5% NCIB • Potential to further
increase dividend (40-60% of FCF)
Enhance Balance Sheet
• Maintain investment grade credit rating
1 Full $500M per year expected to be achieved by the end of 2019.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2018E 2018E + Full Synergies @ 8 yr Avg. Nutrient Prices @ Replacement Cost Nutrient Prices
$3.6 – $4.0B EBITDA
$6.5 – $7.0B EBITDA
$10 – $11B EBITDA
Proceeds of ~4.5B
expected from equity stake sales
Significant Upside Potential for Free Cash Flow per Share 19
May 17, 2018
(1) (2)
2018E Sustaining Capex
Incremental EBITDA
1 Assumes synergies of $500MM per year by end of 2019 2 Assumes 2018 sales volumes at Average of 8-Year (2010 – 2018) prices for: US Cornbelt MOP ($437/mt), Tampa DAP ($482/mt) , and NOLA urea ($361/mt) 3 Replacement cost nutrient prices assumed are: US Cornbelt MOP ($605/mt), Tampa DAP ($540/mt) , and NOLA Urea ($480/mt) 4 Free Cash Flow defined as: Cash flow from continuing operations before net changes in non-cash working capital less sustaining capital. Assumes 643M shares.
Potential mid-cycle free cash flow per share provides tremendous near & long-term opportunity for shareholders
Nutrien EBITDA & FCF Sensitivity to Nutrient Price Increases US$ Billions
>$3 FCF/sh(4)
>$7.50 FCF/sh(4)
(3)
>$12 FCF/sh(4)
Nutrien Provides Unique Investment Opportunity in the Agriculture Sector
May 17, 2018
20
Leading position in both retail/distribution (stable & growing earnings base) and crop nutrient production
Unmatched upside to a recovery in crop nutrient markets - $25/mt improvement in nutrient prices expected to generate ~$650M in EBITDA
Clear line of sight on expected $500M in annual operating synergies; $150 million run rate achieved as at March 31, 2018
Significant free cash flow expected to provide opportunity for meaningful shareholder returns
Thank you!
INVESTOR PRESENTATION
May 17, 2018
For further information please visit Nutrien’s website at: www.nutrien.com Follow Nutrien on:
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