introducing planitulsa, a presentation by john fregonese

PLANiTULSA: PLANiTULSA: Tulsa Comprehensive Plan Tulsa Comprehensive Plan

UpdateUpdate

Implementing the Community’s Implementing the Community’s VisionVision

People Turning 65 AnnuallyPeople Turning 65 Annually1996-20251996-2025

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Y e a r

0

5 0 0

1 ,0 0 0

1 ,5 0 0

2 ,0 0 0

Th

ou

san

ds

Pe

op

le T

urn

ing

65

in Y

ea

r

Growth in Households without KidsGrowth in Households without Kids

Household TypeHousehold Type ShareShare

With ChildrenWith Children 12%12%

Without ChildrenWithout Children 88%88%

Single-PersonSingle-Person 34%34%

SourceSource: Adapted and extrapolated by Chris Nelson from Martha Farnsworth : Adapted and extrapolated by Chris Nelson from Martha Farnsworth Riche, Riche, How Changes in the Nation's Age and Household Structure Will How Changes in the Nation's Age and Household Structure Will Reshape Housing Demand in the 21st CenturyReshape Housing Demand in the 21st Century, HUD (2003)., HUD (2003).

Approaching labor Approaching labor shortagesshortages

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

(in m

illio

ns)

Annual change in US working age populationAverage annual job creation since WWII

Source: TIP Strategies; US Bureau Labor Statistics; US Census Bureau

quality of place

knowledge

More Jobs

Buildings

Land

2010

2000

1990

1970

1980

evolutionary scale

evolutionary scale

evolution of ED goalsevolution of ED goals

Source: TIP Strategies

What We Can Expect?What We Can Expect?Oil costs will continue to riseOil costs will continue to rise

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

What About Climate Change?What About Climate Change?

The future will not be like the past, nor the The future will not be like the past, nor the presentpresent

Demographic Shifts

Growth concentrated in 55+ ages Growth concentrated in 55+ ages and 15-34 – Different housing and 15-34 – Different housing demanddemand

These shifts will result in more These shifts will result in more multi family and mixed use growth.multi family and mixed use growth.

What We Can Expect?What We Can Expect?Oil costs will continue to riseOil costs will continue to rise

Concern for climate change will Concern for climate change will lead to scrutiny of carbon lead to scrutiny of carbon

emissionsemissions

TrendsTrendsStrong forces will put a premium Strong forces will put a premium

on:on:1.1. Energy Efficient, sustainable Energy Efficient, sustainable

citiescities

2.2. Shorter TripsShorter Trips

3.3. Effective TransitEffective Transit

4.4. Great LivabilityGreat Livability

5.5. More Options for Travel, More Options for Travel, Housing and WorkHousing and Work

The Emerging American The Emerging American VisionVision

Many cities will compete to be Many cities will compete to be great places to live & workgreat places to live & work

Open Spaces and ParksAmenities near work

Tulsa Population TrendsTulsa Population Trends

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Population – City of Tulsa Population – City of Tulsa

367,302

393,049

381,780

350,000355,000360,000365,000370,000375,000380,000385,000390,000395,000

1990 2000 2006

Where People WorkWhere People Work

Travel Time to WorkTravel Time to Work

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000

Lessthan 5

5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 ormore

ZoninZoningg

3D - TAZs3D - TAZs

NorthNorth

DowntownDowntown

Households 2000Households 2000

NorthNorth

Households 2030Households 2030

NorthNorth

Households DeltaHouseholds Delta

NorthNorth

Employment 2000Employment 2000

NorthNorth

Employment 2030Employment 2030

NorthNorth

Employment DeltaEmployment Delta

NorthNorth

Traditional Planning Traditional Planning ApproachApproach

DDecide – through analysis and ecide – through analysis and researchresearch

EEducate – the public about the ducate – the public about the solutionsolution

AAnnounce – the plannnounce – the planDDefend – the planefend – the plan

Traditional Planning Traditional Planning ApproachApproach

DD EE AA DD

Improved ProcessImproved Process

PLANPLAN

FUNDFUND

BUILDBUILD

Improved ProcessImproved Process

VALUES VALUES (What do people want?)(What do people want?)

VISION VISION (How will our City provide (How will our City provide it?)it?)

STRATEGY STRATEGY (How do we (How do we implement?)implement?)

PLANPLAN

FUNDFUND

BUILDBUILD

Team Organization ChartTeam Organization Chart

Information Gathering and Kick-off Meeting

Get to know the city through the Get to know the city through the eyes of Tulsa residents. eyes of Tulsa residents.

Land Use: Visual analysis Land Use: Visual analysis of land use typesof land use types

Housing: Housing market Housing: Housing market analysisanalysis

Economic AssessmentEconomic Assessment

Polling and Stakeholder Polling and Stakeholder InterviewsInterviews

50 In Depth Interviews50 In Depth Interviews 1,000 Phone Interviews1,000 Phone Interviews 1,000 Web Based Poll1,000 Web Based Poll 30 “Person on the Street” 30 “Person on the Street”

Working with Staff and Working with Staff and StakeholdersStakeholders

Advisory CommitteeAdvisory Committee

Community WorkshopsCommunity Workshops

3

2

Two Scales – City and Two Scales – City and NeighborhoodNeighborhood

NeighborhoodNeighborhoodCityCity

Workshop MapsWorkshop Maps

Each table’s Each table’s plan is plan is

analyzed analyzed and and

recorded…recorded…

….and all notes and comments are recorded

Traditional ApproachTraditional Approach

The PresentThe Present The FutureThe Future

Scenario ApproachScenario Approach

Plausible stories Plausible stories about the futureabout the future

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

SF Det SF Att MF SF Det SF Att MF

Year 2000 Vision 2030

Owner Renter Year 2000

43%

57%

Modeling the Scenarios

Transportation AnalysisRoadway Impact

Ridership

Market ConstraintsDevelopment ProgramCommercial Demand

Housing Needs

Land Use ScenarioDevelopment

Vision 2030

52%

48%

Sustainability Urban Design

Existing ConditionsExisting Conditions

Scenario AScenario A

Scenario DScenario D

Indicators for Scenario Indicators for Scenario EvaluationEvaluation

Total Infrastructure Cost (2005-2050)

Regional Highway

Infrastructure

(local roads, storm water,

electrical)

Regional Transit

$58.2B

$42B

$34B

Billions of 2007 Dollars

$49

$31

$19

$9

$5

$2

$6

$13

$0.2

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Option A Option B Option C

Infrastructure CostsInfrastructure Costs(Louisiana Speaks)(Louisiana Speaks)

$0

$200,000,000

$400,000,000

$600,000,000

$800,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,200,000,000

Trend Vision

New Revenue

Existing Revenue

Fiscal Model ResultsFiscal Model ResultsCity Sales Tax Revenue Increase - 2000 City Sales Tax Revenue Increase - 2000

DollarsDollars

Broad Outreach and Broad Outreach and Multiple Opportunities for Multiple Opportunities for

ResponseResponse

What We’ve LearnedWhat We’ve Learned

VisionVisionWithout actionWithout actionIs HallucinationIs Hallucination

Lessons from Scenarios and Lessons from Scenarios and Outreach Used to Develop Plan and Outreach Used to Develop Plan and

ProductsProductsComponentsComponents

Vision Vision

Comprehensive PlanComprehensive Plan

Development StrategiesDevelopment Strategies

Implementation and Implementation and Financial StrategyFinancial Strategy

5555

Implementation Plan & Implementation Plan & Funding StrategiesFunding Strategies

Monitoring SystemMonitoring System

72

Upcoming EventsUpcoming Events June - Community Values June - Community Values September - City Wide WorkshopsSeptember - City Wide Workshops January - Community WorkshopsJanuary - Community Workshops April - ScenariosApril - Scenarios June - VisionJune - Vision September – Draft Plan & ImplementationSeptember – Draft Plan & Implementation Adoption Hearings – October - DecemberAdoption Hearings – October - December

Thank YouThank You