intro to reliability management

Introduction toReliability Management

Fred SchenkelbergReliability Consultant

fms@fmsreliability.comwww.fmsreliability.com

(408) 710-8248

What have you done for me lately?

What is your value??

What is your scope?

Or entire industry?

Goals

Estimates

PredictionsTesting

Field

Returns

Goals and Feedback

Specifications

Responses

Score!

Goal!

Back of the Net!

How do you talk about reliability?

As good as or better ….

Make it “reliable”

Do your best.

5 year life

None should ever fail.

www.nomtbf.com

How do those around you talk about reliability?

Four elements

• Function– Primary– Side of box– performance

• Probability– % surviving– Chance of

surviving– No distribution

• Environment– Weather– Stresses– Use profiles

• Duration– Early Life– Warranty period– Useful Life

Practice

• What is the function?

Practice

• What is the environment?

Coffee mug

Practice

• What is the probability and duration?

Practice

• What is another probability and duration?

Brew coffee daily in US home environment 99% reliability over 1 year warranty period and 95% reliability over useful life of 5 years.

System goal of 90% Reliability in 2 years.

Sys

Sub 1 Sub 2 Sub 3 Sub 4 Sub 5

Coffee Machine

Reservoir Heater Plumbing Controls Carafe

97%

Home Coffee Machine95% over 5 years

98% 99% 99% 98%

Sys

Sub 1 Sub 2 Sub 3

Sub 3.1

Sub 3.2

Sub 4 Sub 5

Coffee Machine

Reservoir Heater Plumbing Controls Carafe

97%

Home Coffee Machine95% over 5 years

98% 99% 99% 98%

99% 99% 99% 99% 99%Goals – straight line method

Feedback

• Did you do well?

• Are you on track?

• Corrections?

Concept Design Development ManufacturingField Use

Will

it w

ork?

Will

it w

ork?

Will

it w

ork?

Will

it w

ork?

Did it

wor

k?

Concept

Design

Developme

nt

Manufacturi

ng

Field UseW

ill it

wor

k?W

ill it

wor

k?W

ill it

wor

k?W

ill it

wor

k?Did

it w

ork?

Concept

Design

Developme

nt

Manufacturi

ng

Field Use

FRACAS

Multiple systems

Overbearing Enforcement

Rewards for numbers

Typical early life failuresProduct does not meet design specifications

Material or component characterization

Process characterization

Assembly characterization

Process control – focus on what’s important

Prediction of ELFsNot commonly possibly for unknown variation

Design in some margin

Derating

Safety factor

Determine margin

If variation is know, determine probability of failures – still difficult to know when though.

Hit by a big hammer

Some stress is too large to accommodate

Lightening

Vehicle accident

Meteor strike

Hurricane

Possibly foreseen or expected, and not economical to design the ability to withstand

Prediction of overstress

Not commonly possibly

Design errors

Environment

Unexpected use

When significant adverse consequence may occur explore mitigation or fail safe approaches

Wear out and related

Everything fails – eventually

Understand failure mechanisms and environment

It is a race to cause

the failure

Call Centers

First contact with failure

What do you collect?that is actionable?

What is the main focus?

VALUE

Return on Investment

• Cost or Investment

What do you spend to accomplish the task?

• Return or Benefit

What you realize as a result?

Common to expect at least a 10 to 1 ROI

Given a FET that costs 10 cents, a new procurement engineer finds a new FET vendor that only charges 5 cents.

Switch?

What else to consider?

Given a FET that costs 10 cents, a new procurement engineer finds a new FET vendor that only charges 5 cents.

$0.05 FET has MTBF of 50,000 hours

$0.10 FET has MTBF of 75,000 hours

1000 hours of operationShipping 1000 unitsCost to repair unit $250

Total Cost of $0.10 FET

#Failed = (1-0.987) 1000 units = 13.25

Cost of Repairs = 250*13 = $3250

Total Cost = $3250+0.10*1000 = $3350

987.01000 000,75

1000

10.0

eR

FETCost

RepairCost

TotalCost

$0.10 $325075,000 hrs

$3350

$0.05 $500050,000 hrs

$5050

$0.50 $2500100,000hrs

$3000

How else can we find value?

Summary

• Set goals

• Break goals down

• Create feedback

• Create value

Introduction toReliability Management

Fred SchenkelbergReliability Consultant

fms@fmsreliability.comwww.fmsreliability.com

(408) 710-8248