interreg iiib measure 3: co-operation in the field of natural risks meteorisk - an alpine wide...

Interreg IIIB Measure 3: Co-operation in the field of natural risks

METEORISK - An Alpine wide project to enhance collaboration between weather services

michael.staudinger@zamg.ac.at

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John Kenneth Galbraith: convential wisdom

(The Affluent Society 1958)

“We associate truth with convenience, with what most closely accords with self-interest and personal well-being or promises best to avoid awkward effort or unwelcome dislocation of life. We also find highly acceptable what contributes most to self-esteem.”

Economic and social behavior, are complex, and to comprehend their character is mentally tiring. Therefore we adhere, as through to a raft, to those ideas which represent our understanding.”

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convential wisdom – weather risks?

Basis for a risk analysis:

which groups are familiar with these risks:

Thunderstorms / floodings / storms / heat waves . . . .

tourists local population professionals (mountain guides, civil protection)

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convential wisdom – weather risks?

risk analysis

which groups are familiar with these risks:

Thunderstorms / floodings / storms / heat waves

tourists local population professionals (mountain guides, civil protection)

very extreme events often surprise all groups!

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What and how should warnings be?

Warnings often fail to reach the people concerned

Reactions to warnings are not appropriate

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What and how should warnings be?

Warnings often fail to reach the people concerned

distribution too low due to technical & organisational handicaps false alarm rate too high unclear systems (danger levels)

Reactions to warnings are not appropriate

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What and how should warnings be?

Warnings often fail to reach the people concerned

unclear systems (services involved, danger levels) false alarm rate too high distribution too low due to technical & organisational handicaps

Reactions to warnings are not appropriate no emotional impact no clear advice no „know how“ about the consequences of extreme situations

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What and how should warnings be?

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Is everybody neutral?

False alarm rate & probability of detection (Haechler 2003)

POD 1

FAR 1

x x x x x x

x x x x x x

(now)

(future)

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Is everybody neutral?

False alarm rate & probability of detection

POD 1

FAR 1

x x x x x x

x x x x x x

(now)

(future)XXXXXX(media, other services)

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Why and how should Weather services cooperate?

Fractioned producers / users in Europe and the Alps

unproportional high number of user live in boarder aereas

and hear warnings from neighbouring services

Coordinated warnings reduce the FAR and increase the POD

Commonly used warning systems draw more public attention

Communities in certain areas (like the Alps) develop strong

common sense about natural dangers (conventional wisdom)

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Is language a problem?

Yes! e.g.

12 words in order of arousal strength (Wolgater and Silver 95)

Note Notice Prevent Alert Alarm Harmful Warning Urgent Severe Poison Fatal Deadly

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What and how should warnings be?

Suggestions:

danger levels as uniform as possible (Alpine, EU wide)

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What and how should warnings be?

Suggestions:

danger levels as uniform as possible (Alpine, EU wide)

danger levels damage orientated (earthquake scales)

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What and how should warnings be?

Suggestions:

danger levels as uniform as possible (Alpine, EU wide)

danger levels damage orientated (earthquake scales)

distribution responding to customer preferences and possibilities

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What and how should warnings be?

Suggestions:

danger levels as uniform as possible (Alpine, EU wide)

danger levels damage orientated (earthquake scales)

distribution responding to customer preferences and possibilities

parallel to the warnings structured PR work and offers for learning

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What and how should warnings be?

Suggestions:

danger levels as uniform as possible (Alpine, EU wide)

danger levels damage orientated (earthquake scales)

distribution responding to customer preferences and possibilities

parallel to the warnings structured PR work and offers for learning

clear interfaces with other services in case of indirect meteorological dangers

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What could METEORISK contribute?

• Homogenisation of forecasting work (warning levels etc.)

• Seminars and real time exchange of forecaster Know How

• Densification of observation network

• Common interpretation of model output

• Improved information of civil protection authorities

• Improved information of the public

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Forecasting extreme weather

Severe weatherphenomena

in e.g. 24h

Weather service

Observations Forecasts

Civ. prot. / other servicesauthorities / media

recommendations

Society /

/ Behaviour

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coping with extreme weather

Severe weatherphenomena

present

Weather service

Observations Forecasts

Society

Damages / Behaviour

Civ. prot. / other servicesauthorities / media

recommendations

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Standardisation of alarm levels

Area related treshholds (e.g. wind in cities)

How often / extreme?

Damage What to do?

green - - - no danger

yellow > 60 km/h > 10 per year exposed objects

be alert

orange > 80 km/h 2-10 per year frequent damages

be very alert

red >100 km/h less or 1 per year

large scale damages

follow the advice

of authorities

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Common observational network

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Visualisation software

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Exchange of CERAD - external radar data

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forecasters discussion forum

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forecasters discussion forum

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Comparison of model behaviour (P. Bertolotto)

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GIS tool

SOLUTION 1

SOLUTION 2 SOLUTION 3

METEORISK

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GIS tool

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Statistical tool

Rain: ~2378Snow: ~1643Shortrain: ~ 420

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Statistical tool

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Statistical tool

1 day period

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Statistical tool

1 day period

15 day period

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Homogenisation of forecasting work

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Internal – external communication

Questions / problems:

• How can individually structured weather services be coordinated?

• How can user requirements be integrated?

(civil prot. – media – public)

• PR work is necessary inside and outside the net

• warnings (alert levels) have to be clear and concise enough

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Internal – external communication

• was it all worth it?

The enemy of conventional wisdom is not ideas, but the march of events

(K. Galbraith 1958)

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Internal – external communication

• Answers

• METEORISK brought more attention to individual weather services and the meteorological community

• links to NMS proved to be succesful

• homogenized individual informations for different user groups were feasible

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Resume

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Resume

make best use of all the data!