international model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade (impact model) impact...

International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT Model)

IMPACT Development Team

IMPACT Beginnings

• Early 1990s – IMPACT development begins– Lack of consensus about policies needed to feed the world

requires new analytical tools• 1993 – 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture and the

Environment Initiative. • 1995 - First published results using IMPACT

– Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment (Rosegrant, Agcaoili-Sombilla and Perez, 1995)

– Considers the effects of population, investment, and trade on food security and nutrition in developing countries

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IMPACT Timeline• 1998-2002 – The Food Model integrates a water simulation model

(IWSM)– Water availability becomes a driving variable on agriculture

productivity– Food model has to disaggregate regionally to integrate the IWSM

correctly moving from 36 countries to 281 Food Production Units• 2000-2005 – Expansion to 40 commodities• 2005-2010 – Continued commodity refinement

– Oilseed and Sugar modules Added– Fish Dropped

• 2010-2013 – Update to new version of the model (IMPACT 3)– Base data updated to 2005– Expansion to 56 commodities– Geographical disaggregation to 159 regions, 154 basins, and 320 FPUs

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IMPACT Model - Basic Idea

• The IMPACT model is designed to examine alternative futures for global food supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security.

• The IMPACT model allows IFPRI to provide both fundamental, global baseline projections of agricultural commodity production and trade and malnutrition outcomes along with cutting-edge research results on quickly evolving topics such as bioenergy, climate change, changing diet/food preferences, and many other themes.

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IMPACT Model - Schematic

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IMPACT Model - Briefly• Disaggregated agricultural commodities (56 commodities)

• Disaggregated spatial allocation of crop production at sub-national level (159 countries, and 320 food production units)

• Details on physical use of land and water, trade policies, with resulting trade

• World food prices are determined annually at levels that clear international commodity markets

• Iterative year-by-year demand and supply equilibration

• Output indicators – calorie availability, malnutrition measures, share at risk of hunger, water consumption, yield growth and total production, area

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IMPACT Model - Briefly• Food production is driven by both economic and environmental factors

and has both extensive and intensive components (area x yield)

• On the production side the model also accounts for the presence of irrigation and for exogenous technological change

• Food demand is a function of commodity prices, income, and population

• Feed demand is a function of livestock production, feed prices, and feeding efficiency

• Other demand changes proportionally to food and feed demand

• Biofuel demand an exogenous calculation of demand for feedstock from different commodities (sugar, oils, maize, other) to meet a share of mandates in major countries

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IMPACT Spatial Resolution

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159

• Countries

154

• Water Basins

320

• Food Production Units