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21 – 22 February 2018 Houston, TX
Copyright 2018, Letton Hall Group. This paper was developed for the UPM Forum, 21 – 22 February 2018, Houston, Texas, U.S.A., and is subject to correction by the author(s). The contents of the paper may not necessarily reflect the views of the UPM Forum sponsors or administrator. Reproduction,distribution, or s torage of any part of this paper for commercial purposes without the written consent of the Letton Hall Group is prohibited. Non-commercial reproduction or distribution may be permitted, provided conspicuous acknowledgment of the UPM Forum and the author(s) is made. For moreinformation, see www.upmforum.com.
Intelligent Energy: The Synergy between Computers and Oil & Gas
Michael Nikolaou
Intelligent Energy?
Need to Spend Energy to Get EnergyUS
Domestic Oil
1930
US Domestic
Oil 1970
US Domestic
Oil 2005
US Imported
Oil 1970
US Imported Oil
2005
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Hyd
ro
Firewood
Ener
gy R
etu
rn o
n In
vest
me
nt
(ER
OI)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Wind
PV-solar
Biodiesel
Tar Sands
10 20 30 100
Total Energy(Quad Btu)
Source: C.A.S. Hall, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3810US
Domestic Oil
1930
US Domestic
Oil 1970
US Domestic
Oil 2005
Pivotal Technologies for Oil & Gas
• Key technologies:– 3D seismic– Horizontal drilling– Hydraulic fracturing
• A key supporting enabler:– Computers
Intelligent Energy
• Upstream– Drilling:
• Managed pressure drilling (MPD)
– Cementing: • Reverse-circulation cementing• Avoid natural gas leaks (Zonal isolation)
– Fracturing: • Optimal geometry and placement
– Production:• Abnormal situation detection, diagnosis, and correction
• Midstream– Transportation of natural gas as CNG
Intelligent Energy
• Upstream– Drilling:
• Managed pressure drilling (MPD)
– Cementing: • Reverse-circulation cementing• Avoid natural gas leaks (Zonal isolation)
– Fracturing: • Optimal geometry and placement
– Production:• Abnormal situation detection, diagnosis, and correction
• Midstream– Transportation of natural gas as CNG
Managed Pressure Drilling (MPD)
Riser
Rock
Annulus
Maintain Downhole Pressure When Drilling
What Could Go Wrong?
MPD and the Need for Automation
Extraction pump
(variable-speed)
Trip tank
Choke
(variable-
opening)
Check
valve
Kill tank
Kill pump
(variable-speed) Blow-out
preventer
(BOP)
On/Off
Variable
opening
Well control line
Main pump
(variable-speed)
On/Off
Stand pipe
On/Off
Back-pressure
pump (variable-
speed)
Drain
On/Off
Return pump
(variable-speed)
Supply
tank
Injection pump
(variable-speed)
Isolate pump
(variable-speed)
On/Off
Additives
Model Predictive Control (MPC)
Time
Target
History Matching (?)
Target
Target
Target
MPD Case Study:Dual-Gradient Drilling
Model-Predictive Control for Managed Pressure Drilling: MPC for MPD
• Manipulated inputs:
𝐮 =
𝑢1𝑢2𝑢3
=
𝑞pump
𝑞sub𝑣ds
=
𝑞pump
𝑞sub𝑣ds
• Controlled outputs – Keep at setpoint:
𝐲 =𝑦1𝑦2
=BHP
Hook position
• Additional objective – Keep at setpoint:𝑞pump = 𝑞pump
SP
• Constraints:𝑦1,min ≤ 𝑦1 ≤ 𝑦1,max
𝑦2,min ≤ 𝑦2 ≤ 𝑦2,max
Δ𝑦2,min ≤ Δ𝑦2 ≤ Δ𝑦2,max
Δ𝐮min ≤ Δ𝐮 ≤ Δ𝐮max
Operating Scenarios
Symbol Mode Observed maximum
drill string velocity
No MPC
1 pump 1000 / minˆu q l
ds 12 [m/min]
ds 19 [m/min]
ds 24 [m/min]
ds 28 [m/min]
MPC
set set
1 pump 1000 / minˆu q l
ds 12 [m/min]
ds 19 [m/min]
ds 24 [m/min]
ds 28 [m/min]
Drill String Velocity(Tripping into the well)
Hook Position
Main Mud Pump Flow Rate
Subsea Pump Flow Rate
Bottomhole Pressure (BHP)
Insight
• Computers and automation can improve long entrenched practices
• …as long as 𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠 is maintained
Intelligent Energy
• Upstream– Drilling:
• Managed pressure drilling (MPD)
– Cementing: • Reverse-circulation cementing• Avoid natural gas leaks (Zonal isolation)
– Fracturing: • Optimal geometry and placement
– Production:• Abnormal situation detection, diagnosis, and correction
• Midstream– Transportation of natural gas as CNG
Reverse-Circulation Primary Cementing (RCPC)
Drilling Offshore Wells
Riser
Rock
Annulus
Offshore RCPC
RCPC Simulator Development
• Visualize T, P
• Develop simulator in COMSOL
RCPC Simulator Development
Insight
Intelligent Energy
• Upstream– Drilling:
• Managed pressure drilling (MPD)
– Cementing: • Reverse-circulation cementing• Avoid natural gas leaks (Zonal isolation)
– Fracturing: • Optimal geometry and placement
– Production:• Abnormal situation detection, diagnosis, and correction
• Midstream– Transportation of natural gas as CNG
Natural Gas: A “Bridge” Fuel
Avoiding Natural Gas Leaks
Data Source: Howarth RW, R Santoro, and A Ingraffea, Climatic Change (2011) 106:679–690
Ingredients for Recipes to Cement a Well Well
Casing design
• Internal casing diameter
• Casing weight/length
• Centralization
• Casing and hole diameters ratio
Cement design
• Slurry density
• Free water content
• Spacer
• Cement flow rates
• Cement additives: i.e. accelerator, retarder, fluid loss, gas migration etc.
Rheological Properties
• Gel strength
• Plastic viscosity
• Yield stress
Other Factors
• Bottom hole circulation temperature (BHCT)
• Bottom hole static temperature (BHST)
How to Model Outcomes of Recipes?
• Cement job evaluation (45 wells)
– Sustained casing pressure (SCP)
• Categorical data: Leak/No-Leak (19/26 wells)
• Classification Model: PLS/DA
• Cross-validated correct classification: 81%
– Estimates of conclusive or inconclusive cases
– Ranking of variables in order of importance
Ranking of Variables
Similar and Different Wells
Insight: How to Avoid Leaks
Insight
• Recipes and Rules-of-Thumb:– Cold water leads to poor mixing
– High gel-strength development in short time span desirable for good a cementing job
– High volume of mixing water not good for a cementing job
– Use of extenders in case of high water to cement ratio
– Use of fluid loss cement additive to reduce fluid losses from cement slurry
– Low (but not too low) mud-weight to cement density ratio for better mud displacement
Intelligent Energy
• Upstream– Drilling:
• Managed pressure drilling (MPD)
– Cementing: • Reverse-circulation cementing• Avoid natural gas leaks (Zonal isolation)
– Fracturing: • Optimal geometry and placement
– Production:• Abnormal situation detection, diagnosis, and correction
• Midstream– Transportation of natural gas as CNG
Fracture Design for Horizontal Wells in Low-Permeability Reservoirs
The Unified Fracture Design Method
• Given– Proppant mass, 𝑀𝑝
– Formation permeability, 𝑘– Pay-zone thickness, ℎ– Fracture height, ℎ𝑓– Fracture volume, 2𝑉𝑓
• Define
– Dimensionless fracture conductivity: 𝐶𝑓𝐷 ≜𝑘𝑓𝑤𝑓
𝑘𝑥𝑓
– Proppant number: 𝑁𝑝 ≜4𝑘𝑓𝑉𝑓
𝑘ℎ𝑓𝑥𝑒𝑦𝑒
– Drainage area aspect ratio: 𝑦𝑒𝐷 ≜𝑦𝑒
𝑥𝑒
– Penetration ratio: 𝐼𝑥 ≜2𝑥𝑓
𝑥𝑒
Optimal fracture:
𝑥𝑓,opt =𝑘𝑓𝑉𝑓
𝐶𝑓𝐷,opt𝑘ℎ𝑓
𝑤𝑓,opt =𝐶𝑓𝐷,opt𝑘𝑉𝑓
𝑘𝑓ℎ𝑓
𝐶𝑓𝐷,opt = 𝜙(𝑦𝑒𝐷 , 𝑁𝑝)
Optimal Fracture Designs
Insight
Drained
region
Undrained
region
Low pN
Fracture
High pN
Low eDy
High eDy
Extended to Economic Optimization
Production Estimation
Module
( ), ( )q t Q t
Objective Function
NPV
Input Variables:
Reservoir/ Well Properties
Fluid properties
Proppant type
Outer
(Economic)
Optimization
Optimal Design opt
wn , opt
fn , opt
pM , opt opt opt
, ,f f fh x w
Fracture Design Module
UFD + PKN + P3D
, , ,f f f treath x w p
Design Variables:
No. of wells, w
n
No. of fractures, fn
Mass of Proppant, pM
Bounds on
wn , fn , pM
Design
Constraints
Inner
(Physical)
Optimization
GLOBAL
Intelligent Energy
• Upstream– Drilling:
• Managed pressure drilling (MPD)
– Cementing: • Reverse-circulation cementing• Avoid natural gas leaks (Zonal isolation)
– Fracturing: • Optimal geometry and placement
– Production:• Abnormal situation detection, diagnosis, and correction
• Midstream– Transportation of natural gas as CNG
Electric Submersible Pumps (ESP): Key for Artificial Lift
• ESP– Second most common artificial-lift
technology– Biggest market share in cost
• Most common ESP concerns:– High workover costs – Low system run life
Image Sources: Spears & Associates, 2009; http://www.chemtech-online.com/O&G/Priyanka_april_may12.html
What Could Go Wrong?
• Causes
• Failures
Design related
Equipment capacity
Material selection
System configuration
Leaking Failed pressure test Stuck Burst Bent Broken Disconnected
Mechanical
Burn Corroded Worn Melted Overheated
Material
Plugged with solids Contaminated fluid
Others
Short circuit Open circuit Faulty power
Electrical
Fabrication
Manufacturing problem
Improper quality control
Reservoir
Reservoir fluids Reservoir
performance
Operational
Normal wear and tear
Inadequate training
Installation
Assembly procedure Installation
procedure
Storage/ Transport
Improper storage Improper
transportation
Source: GE
Standard ESP Monitoring vs. Data-Driven
• Limited to Δpower due to
– Fluid density
– Flow rate
Real-Time Decision Variables
Flowline Pressure
Wellhead Pressure
Wellhead Temp
Motor Current A
Motor Current B
Motor Current C
Discharge Pressure
Intake Pressure
Intake Temperature
Leakage Current
Motor Temperature
Vibration
Water Cut
P Pump
P Choke
P ESP to Wellhead
Free Gas Intake
Overall System Efficiency
Pump Fluid Density
Pump Head
Total Liquid Flowrate
Total Pump Head
ESP Analytics Workflow
Prescription of Preventive action
Determine stable operation range
Reset variables based on ranking
Compute statistics and match patterns
Diagnosis of Potential Cause
Ranking of Variables Plot Contribution Charts
Prediction of Failures
Determine Decision Variables Robust PCA Modeling Pattern Recognition
1
2
3
Case Study
• Major oil-field in Middle-East
• Data from downhole and surface gauges
• Analysis for five events
• Data over 2 years
– Data frequency: 1 minute
• Analysis performed on Matlab
Development of Monitoring System
ESP Health Detection
Principal Component 1 Principal Component 1
Prin
cip
al C
om
po
nen
t 2
Prin
cip
al C
om
po
nen
t 2
Prin
cip
al C
om
po
nen
t 2
Prin
cip
al C
om
po
nen
t 2
ESP Health Prediction Patterns
ESP Health Diagnosis
0.000
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
1.200
1.400
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n
Decision variables
Trip 1
ESP Health Correction
0
50
100
150
200
250
Op
erat
ing
Val
ue
(%)
Decision Variables
Parameter behavior identification
Stable Zone Trip 1 Trip 2
ESP Health Correction
ESP Analytics in a Nutshell
Intelligent Energy
• Upstream– Drilling:
• Managed pressure drilling (MPD)
– Cementing: • Reverse-circulation cementing• Avoid natural gas leaks (Zonal isolation)
– Fracturing: • Optimal geometry and placement
– Production:• Abnormal situation detection, diagnosis, and correction
• Midstream– Transportation of natural gas as CNG
Monetizing Natural Gas:Conversion Strategies
• Gas to wire (GTW)
• Gas to liquids (GTL)– Chemical reactions– 10 bcf/d ~ 1MMb/d
• Liquefied natural gas (LNG)– Freezing (-162ºC, -260ºF)
• Compressed natural gas (CNG) – Compression (150-250 atm)– Possibly chilling
LNG or CNG?
LNG or CNG?
• Cost structure difference– LNG
– CNG
Fleet Terminals
0% 100%40%
Term.Fleet
0% 100%80%
Conclusions
• Marine LNG or CNG?
– Key factor: Distance, L• Short distance: CNG
• Long distance: LNG
– Secondary factor: Amount of gas transported, q
– Gas price not important (for choice between the two)
– Composite CNG containers have economic merits
0 2 4 6 8 100
100
200
300
400
500
Distance , L kmiles
Gas
rate
,q
Bcf
y
Lines of NPVCNG NPVLNG
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Established International Trade
Source: BP Statistical Review (2011)
Potential Marine CNG Markets
Insight
• CNG distribution patterns:
– Hub and spoke
– Milk run
CNG for the Caribbean: The Big Four
CNG for the Caribbean: The Small Ones
Insight
• Marine CNG: "𝑆𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑎𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑓𝑢𝑙"
Insight
• LNG vs. CNG
– Primary differentiator: Distance, L
CNG Metal LNGCNG Metal LNG CNG Composite LNG
Quick Look Under the Hood
Quick Look Under the Hood
Quick Look Under the Hood
Quick Look Under the Hood
Quick Look Under the Hood
At the End of the Day…
Closing Thoughts
• Computers for both number crunching and insight
• Data is key, but no longer the bottleneck
– “Without data you’re just a person with an opinion.”W. Edwards Deming, perennial
– “Without An Opinion, You're Just Another Person With Data”Milo Jones and Philippe Silberzahn, Forbes, 2016
• Cross-fertilization from related industries
Acknowledgements
• Funding– IRIS, Statoil– RPSEA– Anadarko, Weatherford, Chesapeake– Halliburton– XGas
• Collaborators– MPC for MPD
• Drs. Gerhard Nygaard, Oeyvind Breyholtz, Jan-Einar Gravdal(IRIS/University of Stavanger)
• Dr. John-Morten Godhavn (Statoil)
– Cementing Well(s)• Kyle Macfarlan (UH, Sim2TheMax)• Shyam Panjwani, Shobhit Misra (UH)• Jessica McDaniel (CSI)• Crystal Wreden, Matt Schinnell (Weatherford)
– Hydraulic Fracturing Design• Dr. Srimoyee Bhattacharya (UH, Shell)
– ESP Monitoring• Supriya Gupta (UH)• Dr. Luigi Saputelli (UH, Frontender)• Dr. Cesar Bravo (Halliburton)
– Marine CNG• Dr. Xiuli Wang (UH, XGas)
• Prof. Michael Economides
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