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Copyright Linux International 2015 1 of 49
Innovation In Computers:And How Things Came About
by
Jon "maddog" HallExecutive Director
Linux® International®
Copyright Linux International 2015 2 of 49
Who Am I?● Half Electrical Engineer, Half Computer Software, Half Business
● In the computer industry since 1969
– Mainframes 5 years
– Unix since 1980
– Linux since 1994
● Companies (mostly large): Aetna Life and Casualty, Bell Labs, Digital Equipment Corporation, SGI, IBM
● Programmer, Systems Administrator, Systems Engineer, Product Manager, Technical Marketing Manager, Educator, Author
● Extremely large systems to extremely small ones
● Pragmatic
● Vendor and a customer
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Warning!
Highly Opinionated Substance Follows!
Copyright Linux International 2015 4 of 49
What Is Innovation?
“A New Idea, Method or Device”
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Where Does It Come From?USA
● ~ 86% of non-agriculture, non-govt GPD comes from small to medium business (SMB)
● ~90% of patents come from SMB● ~2/3 of SMB only last two years
– Bankruptcy– Grow– Bought out
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PatentsCreated To Allow Collaboration
● Bartolomeo Cristofori
– 1703-1709– No music!
● Patent...or not?● Eventually
“samples” given– Bach– Mozart
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First Programmable Machines
● Music boxes● Jacquard Loom
WHY did they do THAT?
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Jacquard Loom - 1801
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Player Pianos1860-1880
● 61 notes● No “standard”● Few sold
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Player Pianos1880-1929
● 88 note standard– 88 notes– Sustain hole
● 2.5 million pianos sold in USA alone
● “reproducers”
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Player Pianos1880-1929
● 88 note standard– 88 notes– Sustain hole
● 2.5 million pianos sold in USA alone
● “reproducers”– FAILED
WHY did they do THAT?
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First Computers● Charles Babbage (1791-1871)
– Analytical Engine (and printer)– Difference Engine #2 (seven orders)– Augusta Ada (nee Byron) King (1815-
1852) – Countess (Lady) Lovelace
● Georg (1785-1873) & Edvard (1822-1881) Scheutz
– Three orders of difference– Two machines produced
● First books of tables calculated and printed by machinery
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“On Computable Numbers”Alan Turing - 1935
● Alan Turing (1912-1954) interested in having a machine (a table of behavior) duplicate a human mind
– A certain situation (state)
– A certain input
– Took you to a new situation (state)● A finite set of states and inputs would get you to the
same problem that a human might compute
● The “Turing Machine” - a state machine
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Unix – 1969PDP-7
● Ken Thompson – Multics and Space Travel
– Dennis Ritchie– Douglas McIlroy– Brian Kernighan– Joe Ossanna
● Assembly language● Ported to PDP-11 in 1970 ● Rewritten in “C” in 1972
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Also In 1969
ARPANET was started
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Also in 1969
● A university student● Cost of software was high
– No “shrink-wrap”– No “computer stores”– No “bulletin boards”
● User groups– Share– DECUS
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Unix Escaped
● Universities● Large government labs● Some commercial companies
– DEC – support of hardware– Sun Microsystems
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Unix Features
● Time sharing– Security
● Multi-processing– Stability
● Lightweight processes● Portable across hardware vendors
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Various Other Systems
● Atari● Kim -1 – 1976 – about 500 USD● Commodore PET - 1977● Tandy (Radio Shack) TRS-80 – 1977 –
600 USD● CP/M
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Apple
● 1976 Apple I – 666.66 USD● 1977 – Apple II
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IBM 5150 – August 1981Charlie Chaplin for 20K USD
● 5.25 Floppy disks● Mostly for “professional” work● clones
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Software Overtook Hardware In Cost
● Software by contract– Meet with customer– Write software to customer's needs
● Software as a product– Design to “average” needs– Print on “printing press”
● No such thing as “commodity problem”
● Readers of books assumed intelligent
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Unix In 1981
● Many universities using it on mini-computers
– Expensive for non-research entities
● Sun Microsystems– Binary version
● DEC and others followed
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Nothing GNU – 1984rms started GNU project
● Completely free OS– Started with emacs
● Portable code ran on many OS● Distributed development● Free Software Foundation
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Computer Stores(Microwave Oven Stores)
● Apple II and IBM PC (and DEC Rainbow)● Three software programs
– Word processor– Spreadsheet– Modem program
● Binary software lowered costs for a while
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Copyrights and Patents applied to software1983-1986
What Was Developed Before That Time?
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Before Software Copyright And Patents
● Computer theory itself
● Real time
● Time sharing
● Batch
● Language Theory
● Client-Server Computing
● Graphics
● Mouse● Word Processing● Databases● Internet (but not
WWW)● High Level
Languages● Unix
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After Software Patents and Copyrights
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And “Clippy” Is Coming Back!
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Innovation Is More Than “Just” Genious:Technology and Balance
● Capability vs cost– Is it affordable?– Is it worthwhile?
● Speed of CPU vs– I/O speeds– Memory size– Bus speeds
● Network capability (including cost)● What are the barriers to innovation?
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Barriers
● Lack of information● Cost of Development systems
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Standards And Their Importance
● Standard interfaces– Improve above– Improve below
● What if Apple designed a bathroom?
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Ken Olsen
“Standards are as interesting as a Russian truck.”
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What He Meant
● I am an engineer● I get bored arguing about standards● I know they are important● Once developed, I implement them:
– faster– smaller– more scalable– for less money
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Sony Betamax vs VHS
● Betamax “better” but proprietary● VHS licensed out
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Sony Walkman
● Audio used to be:– AM stationary radio
● AM portable radio
– FM stationary radio● FM portable radio
– Recording definitely stationary
● Sony Walkman changed that– Sony “lost” to “clones”
● Apollo, Wang, DEC, Compaq, Nortel, RIM
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Inertia and MarketplaceApple vs Microsoft (and Android)
● Takes time to change● Volume is everything
– Attracts application development– Attracts services
● Apple may be very successful at high end market
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Marketplace Today
● 2.0 billion desktops– 7.3 billion people
● 90% desktops – Microsoft– Apple 8%– Linux 2-3%
● Linux outselling Apple on Desktop● Apple iPhone more installed base
– Andoid outselling iOS on devices
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View Of Computers Changing● High Performance Computing becoming
more prevalent– Computing itself demystified
● Embedded computing more prevalent– Not just specific purpose “controllers”
● “Cloud”, “Wireless”, IoT computing are buzzwords of the day
● Your smartphone may also be your laptop AND your desktop
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Small, Cheap Computers Allowing the Other 99% to
Innovate● Worldwide collaboration is now possible
– 15 year old entrepreneurs
● Free Software means you do not start at zero
● Business models are changing● Marketing models are changing● Distribution models are changing● Time to market and volume market
now more critical
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Innovation
May be as much or more in the Financing, Development, Marketing, Distribution and Support
models as in the product itself.
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Summary
● Volume is (almost) everything● Nothing is forever● High end markets can be very
lucrative, but low-end volume markets even more lucrative
● Portability and Standards are key to survival as a customer
● Innovation is important, but widespread collaboration is also important
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Questions?
“Genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration” - Thomas Edison
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