inland waterways and extreme weather – ewent and · pdf fileinland waterways and extreme...

Aus Datenschutzgründen wurde das automatische Herunterladen dieses Bilds von PowerPoint gesperrt.

Juha Schweighofer, D.Sc.

PIANC PTGCC Meeting, Koblenz, October 4th, 2012

Inland waterways and extreme weather – EWENT and ECCONET projects‘ results

Source: Aker Arctic

© via donau I 2

Content

• via donau

• EWENT - ECCONET

• Extreme weather effects on inland waterway transport

• Climate change projections

• Adaptation measures

© via donau I 3

� Priority Project 18: "Rhine/Meuse-Main-Danube"

The Rhine/Meuse-Main-Danube waterway as TEN-T axis

North Sea

Black Sea

Rhine

Main

Main-Danube Canal

Danube

© via donau I 4

via donau sites & course of Austrian Danube

350 km Danube9 Danube locks9 Company locations270 Employees

Passau

Wachau

Bratislava

east of Vienna

• Founded in 2005 on the legal basis of the Austrian Waterway Act

• 100% ownership by the Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology

Lock

Head office

Site

Office

78% impounded sections2 free-flowing sections

© via donau I 5

EWENT – Example Danube

© via donau I 6

ECCONET

• Effects of climate change

on the inland waterway networks

• Funded within FP7 by the European Commission

• Duration: 2010 – 2012

• Website: www.ecconet.eu

© via donau I 7

ECCONET - Consortium

© via donau I 8

Water regime

Based on Moser, presentation given at Kongress der Zentralkommission

für die Rheinschifffahrt, 2009, Bonn.

Source:

via donau

© via donau I 9

Drought – capacity utilisation

• Reduced cargo capacity utilisation

• Duration long (2003, 2011)

Draught [m]

Dea

dw

eig

ht

[t]

Draught [m]

Dea

dw

eig

ht

[t]

Source: DST

© via donau I 10

Drought – sailing times

• Increase

• Increased fuel conumption

Source: Modified after DST

Low water Sufficient water

Ship speed [km/h]

De

live

red

po

we

r P

D[k

W]

800 KW

© via donau I 11

Drought – specific costs

• Increase

• Small vessels

less sensitiveYear

Water depth GMS specific costs Gustav Königs specific costs

Year

Water depth GMS specific costs Gustav Königs specific costs

Development of the specific transport costs of a large motor cargo vessel (GMS)

and a small motor cargo vessel (Gustav Königs) as a function of the water depth.

Transport of bulk cargo from Rotterdam to Basel. Source: DST.

Large vessel Small vessel

© via donau I 12

Drought – accidents

• Grounding

Development of grounding events on the Upper and Middle Rhine within 2002 and 2010. Based on WSD Südwest.

© via donau I 13

High water – suspension of navigation

• When HNWL reached

• Depending on area

• Often short lasting phenomenon

Austrian stretch

© via donau I 14

High water – river morphology

• Sedimentation • Aschach on the Danube:

• 13.8.2002: 1 800 000 m3

• Total in 2002: 5 000 000 m3

• Aggradation

• Damage of towpaths

• Damage of banks and flood protection installations

• Recent example: August 2002

• Costs e.g.:

Austrian Danube: 3 Mill EUR (2002)

and 2 Mill EUR (2003)

Total transport infrastructure: 110 Mill EUR

Changes in the river cross-section geometry of the Danube

at river kilometre 1887.1 in 2002, being partly caused by the flood

in August.

9.1.2002 4.4.2002 10.10.2002

© via donau I 15

Ice (1)

• Prevented operation of locks

• Damage of navigation signs

and installations on banks

• Suspension of navigation

• Impact locally different

Ice occurrence in locks on the Danube preventing

their operation. Source: via donau.

© via donau I 16

Ice (2)

Rhine: no suspension due to ice since 1970!

0 0DAYS

DAYS

© via donau I 17

Ice (3)

Austrian stretch

Main-Danube Canal

© via donau I 18

Other weather phenomena

• Wind, storms:

• Increased requirements on maneuverability and

course stability

• Main cause for accidents due to environmental

reasons

• Reduced visibility

• Reduced speed or interruption of navigation

© via donau I 19

Climate change in Europe – hydrology (1)

• Floods (end 21st century)

• Finland, Russia,

South Spain:

• 100-year return levels

of river discharge

(floods): decrease

• Rest of Europe:

• almost no changes

or increase of floods

⇒ Consideration of floods

will gain importance

Source: Peseta

© via donau I 20

Climate change in Europe – hydrology (2)

• Rhine

• Low water NM7Q

• Summer:

• almost no change till 2050 for all relevant gauges (KLIWAS, ECCONET)

• Significant decrease by 42% by KNMI06 W+ at Lobith

• Winter:

moderate increase in discharge

• Mean discharges: no clear tendency

• 100-year return levels of discharge:

• No changes till 2100 by Peseta

• No suspension of navigation due to ice on the Upper and Central Rhine since 1970!

Source: ECCONET Del. 1.3, 2012

© via donau I 21

Climate change in Europe – hydrology (3)

• Upper Danube (till 2050)

• Annual discharge: slightly decreasing

• Maximum discharge: slightly decreasing

• Minimum discharge: almost no change

• Till 2100 changes become significant

• 100-year return levels (floods, Peseta):

• Upper and Central Danube:

No change (A2) or moderate increase (B2)

• Lower Danube:

No change (A2) or significant increase (B2) Source: ECCONET Deliverable 1.3

Danube at Vienna 2021 - 2050

© via donau I 22

Climate change in Europe - glaciers

• Glaciers – influence of melting ice on discharge:

• Currently most significant in August 10 % (Achleiten, Glowa Danube)

• Vienna most significant in August 2% (Pöyry Energy GmbH)

• Vanishing glaciers only little or negligible influence on discharge of Danube

• Ice occurrence decreasing

Tem

per

atu

re[°

C]

Tem

per

atu

re[°

C]

Air and water temperature of the

Danube in Austria increasing

© via donau I 23

Climate change in Europe – visibility and wind

• Reduced visibility clearly decreasing for most airports in Europe

• Indication for better visibility conditions in IWT

• Wind gusts till 2050:almost no change in the Rhine-Main-Danube corridor Source: ESSL- European Severe Storms Laboratory

(Pieter Groenemeijer), EWENT Deliverable 2.1

© via donau I 24

Effects of climate change on navigation (qualitative)

Source: ECCONET, Deliverable 1.4, 2012

© via donau I 25

Waterway adaptation - strategic issues (1)

RLWL+0,5

• Measures with significant effect on nature problematic

• Integrative approach recommended (e.g. Joint Statement)

• First measures to be taken now (improved maintenance)

• High potential for improvement related to waterway management and usage of ICT

• On medium and long term:

• infrastructure measures (e.g. groynes)

• local framework conditions

© via donau I 26

Waterway adaptation - strategic issues (2)

RLWL+0,5

• Commitment by the EC related to promotion of IWT /TEN-T projects)

• Internationally agreed standards are to be fulfilled =>

• Inland waterway transport will benefit from infrastructure measures

• Fairway conditions expected to be better than today

• Provision of determined fairway conditions allows the economical usage of the current fleet as well as the proper design of the future fleet as framework conditions are known

• High water occurrence and floods need to be considered more in detail

© via donau I 27

Summary

RLWL+0,5

• Extreme weather events problem today

• Uncertainties are still high

• Floods are not projected to decrease for European waterways (except Finnland, Russia and South Spain)

• Low water: No convincing evidence for increase in severity till 2050

• Ice occurrence is decreasing

• Visibilty is impoving

• Wind activity in the Rhine-Main Danube corridor: almost no change

• Rhine-Main-Danube corridor:• No decrease in the performance of inland waterway transport due to

climate change till 2050

• Research need: Central and Lower Danube

• First adaptation measures: infrastructure

© via donau I 28

Is there something positive about climate change?

© via donau I 29

Juha Schweighofer, D. Sc., MRINAvia donau – Österreichische Wasserstraßen-Gesellschaft mbH

A-1220 Wien, Donau-City-Straße 1Tel +43 50 4321 1624, Fax +43 50 4321 1050juha.schweighofer@via-donau.org, www.via-donau.org