inga blaziene boguslavas gruzevskis vilnius-brussels, 2012 economic and social situation in baltic...
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Inga Blaziene
Boguslavas Gruzevskis
Vilnius-Brussels, 2012
Economic and social situation in Baltic countries: LITHUANIA
INSTITUTE OF LABOUR AND SOCIAL RESEARCH
CONTENTCONTENT
Evaluation of Lithuanian economic potential (GDP);
Unemployment developments;
Population income and living standards;
Emigration and demographic perspectives in Lithuania;
Conclusions.
Treaty on European UnionTreaty on European Union
The Union […] shall work for the sustainable development of Europe based on balanced economic growth and price stability, a highly competitive social market economy, aiming at full employment and social progress […].
It shall combat social exclusion and discrimination, and shall promote social justice and protection […].
It shall promote economic, social and territorial cohesion, and solidarity among Member States.
(Treaty on European Union, Title 1, Article 3)
GDP per capita in PPP in GDP per capita in PPP in 20120111 (E (EU27U27 = 100%) = 100%)
274131
129127126125
120118
116108107
10199
92848382
8077
73676665
6258
4945
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
LuxembourgNetherlands
AustriaIreland
SwedenDenmarkGermanyBelgiumFinland
United KingdomFrance
ItalySpain
CyprusSlovenia
MaltaGreece
Czech RepublicPortugalSlovakiaEstonia
HungaryPoland
LithuaniaLatvia
RomaniaBulgaria
Annual GDP growthAnnual GDP growth (% (%))
3,2
0,3
-4,3
1,5
6,8
10,3 9,8
2,9
-14,8
5,9
3,32
2,5
1,41,3
2,2
2
1,4
7,87,87,4
6,7
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
EU-27 Lithuania
Unemployment indicators in LithuaniaUnemployment indicators in Lithuaniain 2004–20in 2004–201111
69,0
248,5
291,1
225,1
94,389,3
132,9
184,4
20,7 13,7 12,022,1
46,7 52,7 45,331,0
11,4
8,35,6
4,35,8
13,7
17,8
32,9
29,2
13,4
8,29,8
15,7
22,5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40Unemployed, thous.
Young unemployed (15-24 years), thous.
Unemployment rate, %
Youth unemployment rate, %
%Thous.
35,1
15,6
Unemployment rate in EU in 201Unemployment rate in EU in 20111 (%) (%)
Source: „Eurostat“
21,7
17,7
16,215,4
14,413,6
12,912,511,310,9
9,79,68,48,28,07,97,87,67,57,47,2
6,76,55,9
4,84,44,2
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sp
ain
Gre
ece
Lat
via
Lit
hu
ania
Irel
and
Slo
vak
ia
Po
rtu
gal
Est
on
ia
Bu
lgar
ia
Hu
ng
ary
Po
lan
d
Fra
nce
Ital
y
Slo
ven
ia
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Cy
pru
s
Fin
lan
d
Den
mar
k
Sw
eden
Ro
man
ia
Bel
giu
m
Cze
ch R
epu
bli
c
Mal
ta
Ger
man
y
Lu
xem
bou
rg
Net
her
lan
ds
Au
stri
a
%
Youth unemployment rate in EU in 2011 (%)Youth unemployment rate in EU in 2011 (%)
Source: „Eurostat“
46,444,4
33,532,931,030,129,429,1
26,125,825,023,722,922,922,422,321,120,118,718,1
16,415,714,213,8
8,68,37,6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Spa
in
Gre
ece
Slo
vaki
a
Lit
huan
ia
Lat
via
Por
tuga
l
Irel
and
Ital
y
Hun
gary
Pol
and
Bul
gari
a
Rom
ania
Fra
nce
Sw
eden
Cyp
rus
Est
onia
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Fin
land
Bel
gium
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Lux
embo
urg
Slo
veni
a
Den
mar
k
Mal
ta
Ger
man
y
Aus
tria
Net
herl
ands
%
Average annual gross earnings in business Average annual gross earnings in business economy in EU ineconomy in EU in 2009-2010 2009-2010 (euro)(euro)
5604449316
4520744412
4240040008
3919738047
3413233384
2916026316
252511735217168
1131210777
101009712
85968399
72345891
4085
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
DenmarkLuxembourg
IrelandNetherlands
GermanySwedenFinland
United KingdomFranceAustriaGreece
SpainCyprus
PortugalSlovenia
Czech RepublicSlovakiaHungaryEstoniaLatvia
PolandLithuaniaRomaniaBulgaria
531654605145284
42382
3870038659
3771636871
3611432413
234062131021150
1534514625
1166990718952
84008119
674566906417
48282626
6745
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
DenmarkUnited
LuxembourgGermany
IrelandNetherlands
BelgiumAustria
SwedenFinlandFrance
ItalyCyprus
SpainPortugalSlovenia
MaltaCzech
HungarySlovakia
PolandLithuania
LatviaEstonia
RomaniaBulgaria
Average annual gross earnings in business Average annual gross earnings in business economy in EU ineconomy in EU in 2006-2006-20020077 (euro)(euro)
Average gross monthly wages and salaries in Average gross monthly wages and salaries in Lithuania inLithuania in 2001-2011 2001-2011
2001 2005 2007 2010 2011
Average gross monthly wages and salaries (LTL)
982,3 1276,2 1802,4 1988,1 2042,0
Growth of average gross monthly wages and salaries (%)
101,2 111,0 120,5 96,7 102,7
Real growth of average gross monthly wages and salaries (%)
99,6 106,8 117,0 95,7 98,5
Average monthly income in Lithuania in the 1Average monthly income in Lithuania in the 1stst quarter, 2012quarter, 2012
LTL per month Euro per month
Average gross wage 2138 620
Average net wage 1662 482
Average old age pension 815 236
Minimum monthly wage (gross) 800 232
Average unemployment social insurance benefit
556 161
Social benefit (for single person) 130 38
Price level index of selected consumption goods Price level index of selected consumption goods and services in Lithuania and EU-27 inand services in Lithuania and EU-27 in 2010 2010 ((%%))
ES-27 Lietuva
Clothing and footwear 100 99
Electronical appliances 100 97
Personal transport equipments 100 92
Household appliances 100 91
Electricity, gas and other fuels 100 80
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 100 77
Furnishings and household equipment 100 77
Food and non-alcoholic beverages 100 72
In work at-risk-of-poverty rateIn work at-risk-of-poverty rate in EU in in EU in 2010 2010 ((%%))
17,213,8
12,712,3
11,410,6
9,79,7
9,47,7
7,67,2
6,96,8
6,56,56,5
6,25,75,7
5,35,3
5,15
4,53,73,7
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Romania Greece
Spain Lithuania
Poland Luxembour
Latvia Portugal
Italy Bulgaria
Ireland Germany
Cyprus United
Denmark Estonia Sweden France Malta
Slovakia Hungary Slovenia
Netherlands Austria
Belgium Czech
Finland
%
Austerity measuresAusterity measures
increased VAT (from 19% to 21%);
decreased old age pensions;
decreased unemployment social insurance benefits;
tighten conditions for payment of unemployment social insurance benefits;
decreased salaries of public sector employees (by 4-12%);
low minimum monthly wage was not increased, etc.
Unemployed and unemployed receiving Unemployed and unemployed receiving unemployment benefits in Lithuania in 2008-2010unemployment benefits in Lithuania in 2008-2010
307100
268838
209911
175273
12493894984
3264268000
74100792566895642804
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
December2008
January 2009 March 2009 June 2009 January 2010 March 2010
Unemployed Unemployed, receiving unemployment social insurance benefit
Recipients of sRecipients of socialocial benefits in benefits in Lit Lithhuuania inania in 2005-2011 (t2005-2011 (thoushous.).)
54
38 37 37
76
181
221
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Declared eDeclared emigramigration fromtion from Balti Baltic countriesc countries ( (personspersons))
21970
83157
53863
1701510702
60077388
52944406 4658
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2008 2009 2010 2011
LithuaniaLatviaEstonia
Persons, emigrated from Lithuania:
2004–2011 – 330 thous.
1990–2011 – 668 thous.
Acceleration of demographic ageing in some Acceleration of demographic ageing in some EU countries in 2006-2011 m. (%)EU countries in 2006-2011 m. (%)
0,0
0,0
2,9
3,9
7,7
9,7
13,2
18,3
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Ireland
Estonia
Italy
Greece
Latvia
Poland
Germany
Lithuania
LLithuanian population by gender and age inithuanian population by gender and age in 20102010 and forecasts for and forecasts for 2060 2060
050001000015000200002500030000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95+
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
Men, 2010
Women, 2010
20601
in 2060 – 2 million 548 thous. (by 697 thous. less comparing to 2011)
1
1
LitLithuanianhuanian perspe perspectivesctives
in 2060 Lithuania:
will have 2,5 million residents,
out of them youth (15-29 years) – 339,6 thous. (13%)
Social Social iinsurance nsurance sstatisticstatistics in in Lithuania Lithuania in 2006-2011 in 2006-2011
At the end of 2012 m. State social insurance fund debt will reach LTL 12 billion(3,5 billion euro).
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Insured population (thous.) 1421 1467 1463 1309 1253 1303,4
Pension and benefit payments recipients (thous.)
1785,8 1921,6 1943,3 1792,6 1613,0 1580,0
Old-age pensions (thous.) 591,0 590,9 595,0 597,9 598,8 599,2
Revenue of the State Social Insurance Fund Board (million)
7800 9759 11217 11357 10487 5226,7
Expenses of the State Social Insurance Fund Board (million)
7245 92830 12654 14236 13268 6492,3
Net result of the current year (million)
555 476 -1437 -2879 -2781 -2650,6
Causes of such a situation include:Causes of such a situation include:
low labour productivity and low wages;
low living standards and “poverty trap”, high rate of economic inactivity;
decrease in number of enterprises (especially – large, small and medium) and low technological level of production;
imbalances in vocational education and training and structural unemployment (in 2011 as much as 11% of large enterprises declared shortage of qualified labour force);
unattractiveness of the national labour market comparing to the EU one.
ConclusionsConclusions
the fastest depopulation in the EU;
the fastest ageing society in the EU;
decreasing economic capacity/potential of the country (number of enterprises and economic activity of the population);
increasing poverty;
inefficient social security policy;
huge distrust in public authorities (especially – the Parliament and the Government).
WHO IS WHO IS RESPONSIBLERESPONSIBLE??????
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