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Industry ReviewEconomics, Transportation
&Commercial Vehicles
ACT Research StaffWebinarJanuary 14, 2020
Webinar Overview
• Introduction - Steve Tam• Economy - Sam Kahan• Freight Transportation – Jim Meil• Class 8 – Kenny Vieth• Used Trucks/Classes 5-7 - Steve Tam• Trailers - Frank Maly• Q&A/Wrap-up - All
2
3
4
5
Economic Overview
• US economy decelerating further, but recession avoided
• Manufacturing, Retail, Energy, and Transportation remain vulnerable
• Inflation: headline slightly below 2%; core slightly above 2%
• Federal Reserve comfortable with current policy of 1.50% to 1.75%
• List of risks and uncertainty long, but with low probability of occurrence
6
U.S. Real GDP (2015 – 2021)(% change, annualized)
GDP growth:2018 = 2.9%2019 = 2.3%2020 = 1.8%2021 = 2.0%
GDP: Consumption strong, trade deficit drag. Business investment positive even as it slows.
Vulnerable sectors: Manufacturing, freight, retail, energy.
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Percent
real GDP
forecast
lower bound
upper bound
Trend(10-17)
7
Non-Farm Employment (2015-2019)(Q/Q % annualized)
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2015Q4 2016Q2 2016Q4 2017Q2 2017Q4 2018Q2 2018Q4 2019Q2 2019Q4
% c
han
ge
Trucking
Manu
total employ
Since mid-2018 manufacturing employment has weakened. It turned negative toward end of 2019.
Trucking, with a lag, has followed suit.
Little, so far, to suggest that a recovery or even a flattening has occurred.
8
Consumer Price Index (Total, Core) (2015 to 2021),(% Change, Y/Y)
Headline inflation likely to be below the 2% mark, while core rate is above 2%.
Swings in energy and commodities are major source of price volatility.
Tariffs are likely to impact price numbers in early 2020.
Wage increases moderate and manageable.
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
2014Q4 2015Q4 2016Q4 2017Q4 2018Q4 2019Q4 2020Q4 2021Q4
CPI
CPI,forecast
CPI,core
Core,forecast
2% Line
9
Federal Funds Rate(2015 – 2020)
Current fed funds target is 1.50% to 1.75%.
Federal Reserve Policy moderate and measured. Currently comfortable with its stance.
FOMC policy, if necessary, will tend to ERR on the side of caution.
Steady policy unless a significant weakness occurs. FOMC won’t tighten until inflation is over the 2% benchmark and economic activity robust.0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20
Inte
rest
Ra
te
Federal Funds Rate
10
Uncertainty and Risks
• Tariff and Trade• Spill-over from manufacturing and associated sectors• Election (presidential) uncertainty• Slow growth in global economy, especially Europe and China
- Brexit
• Financial market and/or credit weakness• Fiscal Policy: potential for activism absent• Geopolitical• Federal Reserve errors
11
Transportation and Freight
• 2019 downtrend in manufacturing slowed freight growth• Not enough offsetting strength in consumer/retail/distribution ….• As freight slows, trucking capacity saw fastest growth in 20 years• Supply outstrips demand
- Pricing power migrates to shippers from carriers (asset-holders)• Correction started in 2019, will last into 2020• QUESTION OF THE YEAR – Equilibrium by December 2020?• SHAMELESS PLUG: ACT FREIGHT FORECAST was spot on in 2019
12
Manufacturing Trends
Durables
Nondurables Durables Nondurables
Latest 12 Months (1.3) (1.5)
CAGR since June 2009 2.2 0.5
Growth Trends
Manufacturing declines in 2019
After two strong years in 2017-18
13
Freight Trends
Durables
Nondurables
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
88
94
100
106
112
118
124
130
136
142
148
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
10 =
100
(SA,
3 m
o m
ov a
vg) ATA Tonnage
CassShipments
Index
ACTFor-Hire
ATA Tonnage
Cass Shipmts
ACT For-Hire
12 month rate of change 3.3 -5.2 0.1CAGR since June 2009 4.0 1.6 3.1
Recent Activity Trends (Annualized %)
In 2019 freight indicators were
mixed
Likely the trend was flattish
14
Truckload Equipment CapacityUS Class 8 Tractor Population (U-11)
•
Biggest increase in
Class 8 population in
20 years
15
DAT Trendlines: Spot Rates (ex FSC)
Weak pricing environment
confirms adverse trends in freight and
capacity
16
DAT Spot Rates & ACT Spot Leading Indicator: Dry Vans (ex FSC)
Green shoot:Our lead indicator
detects early signs of a change
in direction
17
Outlook
• 2019 Story: too little freight, too many trucks• 2020 Story: supply & demand back in balance by Dec
▪ For Sure: Class 8 sales drop, excess supply tamed▪ More speculative: Freight resumes growth
• Consumer solid• Housing rebounds (low interest rates)• Mfg comeback (USMCA, China deal)
• Spot freight rates bottom in H1, increase in H2
18
Track Record for Freight Forecast
•
First year of the Freight Forecast –
scary close, sets a high standard
19
ACT Research Class 8 Tractor Dashboard
Metric Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19
Green Minus Red Tally 9 10 8 9 6 9 8 6 5 2 2 -4 -6 -5 -5 -8 -10 -10 -11 -8 -6 -5 -3 -4 -3Positive Indicators (Green) 9 10 9 10 8 9 9 7 8 6 6 3 3 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 3 3 4 4 4Neutral Indicators 6 5 5 4 5 6 5 7 4 5 5 5 3 2 4 5 5 5 4 5 3 4 4 3 4Negative Indicators (Red) 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 3 4 4 7 9 9 8 9 10 10 11 9 9 8 7 8 7
Markit PMI Index 53.9 55.1 55.5 55.3 55.6 56.5 56.4 55.4 55.3 54.7 55.6 55.7 55.3 53.8 54.9 53.0 52.4 52.6 50.5 50.6 50.4 50.3 51.1 51.3 52.6Non-Auto Durables Mfg Output** 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.3 3.6 3.2 2.3 1.7 0.8 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6Consumer Spend, Goods only** 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.0 5.2Residential Const Expend (real) ** 3.7 3.7 3.6 4.8 5.2 5.1 4.5 2.6 0.3 -2.4 -4.9 -8.7 -11.8 -13.0 -14.0 -14.5 -13.4 -12.8 -11.6 -10.3 -8.7 -5.8 -3.1 -0.2 1.2Dow Jones Trucking Stock Index 765.1 784.1 832.7 820.8 832.2 800.4 849.2 812.1 833.9 860.1 878.8 774.9 799.0 700.0 769.0 812.4 780.4 759.6 692.5 761.4 812.5 816.3 836.2 839.7 852.1
ATA TL Loads** 5.6 6.1 6.0 6.5 6.3 5.7 5.1 4.8 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 3.5 4.8 4.6 4.0 4.0DAT Loads/Truck 6.1 7.9 11.8 7.3 6.5 5.9 5.8 7.2 5.2 4.7 3.9 2.8 3.7 4.0 3.8 3.5 2.3 2.1 2.1 3.2 2.9 3.3 2.9 2.3 3.2DAT Aggregate Contract/Spot Spread 2 -3 -13 3 3 5 8 -3 8 19 19 25 22 22 32 37 38 41 41 31 33 35 31 35 34DAT Dry Van Spot Rate* 21.3 21.7 34.3 28.4 28.5 26.7 24.0 26.0 23.4 17.3 8.2 0.1 -1.3 -2.7 -12.8 -9.8 -13.2 -16.4 -18.5 -19.2 -19.0 -15.8 -14.1 -13.1 -12.2ATA TL Loads/US Cl8Tractor Pop Growth Gap -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -1.4 -2.0 -2.5 -3.5 -5.5 -6.9 -7.9 -8.6 -9.9 -10.1 -10.9 -11.1 -9.2 -8.5 -7.8 -5.2 -3.4 -3.1 -3.1 -2.6
Cl 8 Cancellations (SA) 1599 2034 2819 3953 4536 2910 4899 4383 6162 7390 7085 6534 6976 5589 4887 5566 2420 2578 3645 6394 4599 3182 3363 1023 1358Cl 8 I/S ratio (SA) 2.48 1.93 2.64 2.04 2.27 2.26 2.40 2.21 2.41 2.45 1.89 2.36 2.38 2.10 2.50 2.29 2.47 2.66 2.88 2.63 2.98 3.23 2.43 3.49 3.33Class 8 Inventory Level (000 SA) 55.5 51.5 54.6 55.2 56.0 56.3 53.7 56.6 62.9 62.1 61.2 59.7 61.9 62.6 69.5 70.4 73.2 75.5 78.2 80.3 82.4 84.6 78.9 78.4 79.3Class 8 Net Orders to Build (6mma,SA) 1.10 1.17 1.34 1.44 1.56 1.57 1.65 1.69 1.72 1.81 1.79 1.77 1.62 1.44 1.18 0.92 0.72 0.59 0.51 0.49 0.47 0.45 0.45 0.48 0.53ACT For Hire - Volume less Capacity 67.4 69.7 63.4 61.1 47.3 59.6 60.9 54.0 56.6 55.2 50.5 55.5 46.0 45.3 45.6 42.7 46.7 45.3 42.1 41.4 58.6 50.4 62.4 52.7 51.9
All measures are levels, except *=Year/Year %
Change and **=12 month CAGR Rate of Change
HD Demand Always Lags the Freight Cycle& Dashboard leads US Tractor orders by ~4 months
Order ramp
begins
Peak C8 build rates & INV cycle begin
Capacity imbalance emerges
INV cycle ends, build cuts imminent
20
Current Market Conditions
Headwaters of demand stream
looking increasingly tired
Order trend stabilizing, if at
low levels
Backlogs shed 179k units y/y
Nov.
Mid and downstream
metrics tip over the precipice
Build rates falling, inventories remain high
Retail sales fall y/y in Q4
Relative measures
heading in wrong directions
BL/BU from 11 to ~5
IN/RS from 2 to ~3
21
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Units (000s)Actual 6MMA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
January 2010 - November 2019
Class 8 Tractor with Day Cab: N.A. Net Orders
As BL Cushion Fades, Orders Rebound
22
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Units (000s)Actual 6MMA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
January 2010 - November 2019
Class 8 Straight Truck with Day Cab: N.A. Net Orders
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Units (000s)Actual 6MMA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
January 2010 - November 2019
Class 8 Tractor with Sleeper: N.A. Net Orders
Despite Collapse, Some Support Remains
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
BL/BU Ratio (Months)Units (000s)BL/BU Ratio Backlog SA BL/BU Ratio
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
January 2000 - November 2019
Total Class 8: N.A. Backlog & BL/BU Ratio
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
BL/BU Ratio (Months)Units (000s)BL/BU Ratio Backlog
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
January 2010 - November 2019
Class 8 Straight Truck with Day Cab: N.A. Backlog & BL/BU
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
50
100
150
200
250
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
BL/BU Ratio (Months)Units (000s)BL/BU Ratio Backlog SA BL/BU Ratio
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
January 2000 - November 2019
NA Class 8 TRACTOR: Backlog & BL/BU Ratio
23
Too Many Unfilled
95.9 90.4
48.8
16.9
38.926.1
15.125.5
1.9
32.7
33.241.9
68K72K
59K 57K
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Beyond
Units (000s)
Empty/ForecastFilledBuilt
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
November 2019 Ending
Class 8 Backlog Fill/OEM Build Plans
Nov.-EndingOpen Build Slots (%)
10 Yr. Avg NovQ1 65% 54%Q2 37% 38%
24
12mma = 15,100
25
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45Units (000s)
Build Net Orders 12MMA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
January 2001 - November 2019
Total Class 8 N.A.: Net Orders 12 Mo. Avg. & Build
Build BUPDQ1’19 89.4k 1,418Q2 95.9k 1,499Q3 90.4k 1,459Q4 62.8k 1,064Tot. 340k
Q1’20 65.0k 1,016Q2 57.5 913Q3 52.5 847Q3 49.5 839Tot. 224k
Stock Drawdown Impedes Builds
0
1
2
310
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
IN/RS Ratio (Months)Units (000s)Inventory Inventory SA Retail SalesRetail Sales SA IN/RS Ratio IN/RS Ratio SA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
January 2010 - November 2019
Total Class 8: N.A. Inventory/Retail Sales Ratio
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90Units (000s)
Inventory ActualRS Based Target Inventory
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
January 2010 - November 2019
Total Class 8: N.A. Inventory Actual & Target
26
Different Shapes, Different Outcomes
27
US C8 Tractor Retail Sales: Past 8 Years/Past 15 Years
1990 - 2024
ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2448
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66Percent
US C8 Truck Retail Sales: Past 10 Years/Past 20 Years
1990 - 2024
ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2442
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60Percent
Very young tractor fleet gives truckers latitude to stop buyingVocational fleet well balanced across population distribution
Used Class 8 Trucks
Average retail at $47,600 in November➢ -1% m/m, -14% y/y, +3% ytd
Miles (as of late) and age trending upInventory plateaued, for nowSoft demand now limiting factor for salesExports making valiant year-end effort – motivated sellers, softer USD
➢ November -5% m/m, +26% y/y, -8% ytd
28
Are Prices Finding a Bottom?
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
10
20
30
40
50
60
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Y/Y % ChangeTotal ($000)
Class 8: U.S. Used Truck Average Sale Price
Y/Y % Chg. Monthly 6MMA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
January 2009 - November 2019
-40
-20
0
20
40
6030
40
50
60
70
80
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Y/Y % ChangeTotal Reported Price ($000)Y/Y % Chg. Monthly 6MMA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
January 2009 - November 2019
Class 8: U.S. 4 to 5 Year Old Used Truck Average Sale Price4 to 5 year old, 400-500,000 miles legacy
29
Miles Tick Up, Age Continues to Rise
-20
-10
0
10
20
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Y/Y % ChangeTotal (000s)
Class 8: U.S. Used Truck Average Miles
Y/Y % Chg. Monthly 6MMA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
January 2009 - November 2019
72
78
84
90
96Total (Months)
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
January 2009 - November 2019Class 8: U.S. Used Truck Average Age
30
Exports Lower, but Growing
13.514.4
15.0
22.1
15.4
11.813.0
22.7
16.415.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19Source: ITC, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
2010 - 2019(Actual through November 2019)
Used Class 8 Tractor Exports
Units (000s)
31
Medium Duty
BL/BU ratio moderatingIN/RS ratio on target; inventory rolls over
- OEM build peaked− Q3’19 = 1,251, Q4’19 = 927, Q1’20 = 985
− November sales softest in three yearsMarket will see lower build and sales in 2020Key MD truck demand drivers staying between the linesHigh volume buyers cutting back
32
N.A. Classes 5-7 Order Distribution(Data through November 2019, annualized)
Classes 5-7 Orders
Truck (000s)
Bus (000s)
RV (000s)
Total* (000s)
Past 12 Mo. 177.5 40.8 16.5 244.2
Past 6 (AR) 159.3 32.3 13.2 213.5
Past 3 (AR) 148.1 30.2 12.5 198.0
November (AR) 128.7 29.6 14.8 185.0
Nov SAAR 183.4
Dec (P) SAAR 219.8* Total includes Step Vans
33
Backlog/Build Pressuring Diminished
1234
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
BL/BU Ratio (Months)Units (000s)BL/BU Ratio Backlog SA BL/BU Ratio
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
January 2010 - November 2019
Total Classes 5-7: N.A. Backlog & BL/BU Ratio
34
Inventory Persistently High
1
2
3
4
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
IN/RS Ratio (Months)Units (000s)IN/RS Ratio Inventory Retail Sales SA IN/RS Ratio
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
January 2010 - November 2019
Total Classes 5-7: N.A. Inventory/Retail Sales Ratio
35
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000Cl 5-7 Truck Sales (SAAR)Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR)
Source: BEA, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
Light Vehicle Sales vs. Cl 5-7 Truck Sales
LIGHT VEHICLE RS Cl 5-7 TRUCK RS Poly. (LIGHT VEHICLE RS) Poly. (Cl 5-7 TRUCK RS)
36
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20RV 12 12 13 15 17 18 21 22 22 16 17Bus 27 27 32 34 37 38 41 43 43 41 44Truck 79 127 143 153 172 181 171 184 208 219 192Total 119 167 188 202 227 237 233 249 273 277 253
119
167188
202227
237 233249
273 277253
0
50
100
150
200
250
300Units (000s)
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
2010 - 2020
N.A. Classes 5-7 Production
37
U.S. Trailer Market Update – Nov ‘19
• After acceptable October, November orders disappointed- Down 38% m/m
• Inventory drawdown continues, but still very high- Factory +25% y/y and dealer channel reported flush
• BL off 3% m/m, down sequentially 10 of 11 months• BU slowing, but still outpacing order placement• BL/BU remained steady• Large fleets quiet…small to medium players silent
38
A Slow Order Season Underway
• Fleets balancing financials, equipment needs
• Recent huge equipment acquisitions
• Investment plan reassessment
• November well under seasonal expectations0
10
20
30
40
50
60
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Un
its
in ‘0
00
s
NOVEMBER 2019NET TRAILER ORDERS
19,813 UNITS
2019 2017 2018
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC Copyright 2020
39
Backlog Stumbles into Q2’20
• BL/BU n/c versus Oct• Production slot availability• 2019 urgency…gone• True equipment need?• Fleets aware of conditions• Expect BU rate moderation
to continue0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Materials
Nov'19Oct'19Sep'19Aug'19Jul'19
Jun'19May'19Apr'19Mar'19Feb'19Jan'19Dec'18
U.S. Total Trailer Backlog in Months
40
BL/BU Almost Continually Shrinking
• Pressure off materials and component supplies since mid-summer
• Build continues to outpace orders
• Expect further production softening (days/rates)
• Likely open slots in Q1’20• Large fleet order pattern
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Materials
Nov'19Oct'19Sep'19Aug'19Jul'19
Jun'19May'19Apr'19Mar'19Feb'19Jan'19Dec'18
U.S. Total Trailer Backlog in Months
Months
41
Orderboard Now Half of Last Year
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Thou
sand
s
Y/Y%Ch (Right) Backlog (Left)• October wiggle• Down y/y since July• Expect further
softening in Dec• Potential price
pressures• Advantage - Fleets
42
Expect Further Production Adjustments
• The “Normal” pattern• Lower rates• Days/Shifts• Staffing last resort
• No indication of order rebound to offset needed changes
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Y/Y % ChangeUnits
Total Trailers: Build Per Day
Build/Day Y/Y % Change
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
January 2010 - May 2020Year Over Year Percent Change
43
Dec’19 U.S. Trailer Market Thoughts
Still waiting on some players, but initial results indicate…
• Orders will continue to disappoint• Two more days (available) in production schedule m/m
- Don’t expect they were used• BU will ease versus November• Inventory drawdown will occur, but half of seasonal expectations• BL will close down sequentially
44
2020 Forecast Lower, but Still Solid
• 2019 will still set an all-time record
• 2020 forecast revised• 2015-2019 were 5 of Top 6• Flood of new equipment• Young, efficient fleet
• Youngest since 2000
• Still fleet growth in 2020'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Dry Vans 62 120 128 135 155 181 181 183 194 204 140Reefer Vans 28 34 34 36 39 47 47 43 46 50 38Flatbeds 8 15 24 22 26 31 20 24 35 32 22All Others 29 39 45 42 48 50 40 42 48 48 40Total 127 209 231 235 268 308 288 291 323 333 239
127
209231 235
268
308288 291
323 333
239
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400Units (000s)
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2020
2010 - 2020
U.S. Trailer Production
45
Build Forecasts
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NA Class 8 (000s)
228.3 255.6 324.5 338.5 224.5
NA Classes 5-7 (000s)
232.9 248.7 272.7 276.5 252.5
US TrailerTotal Trailers (000s)
287.5 291.0 323.0 333.4 239.0
46
47
4440 Middle RoadColumbus, IN 47203
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