india pulses supply & demand outlook mr. sudhakar tomar
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Review Of Pulse Markets: MIDDLE EAST with reference to INDIA-MIDDLE EAST Pulses Trade
INDIAPULSES SUPPLY & DEMAND OUTLOOK
Presented by
Sudhakar TOMARManaging Director
Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar1
IPGA PULSES CONCLAVE19th 21st February, 2014, Goa , India
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Area of Interest
Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar2
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Indias Growing Food Needs(1991 = 100)Courtesy - www.statpub.com
As average age and incomes rise food needs will grow
Know your INDIACovers population of 1. 22 Billion and area of 3.28 million sq km roughly the size of 1/3rd of CanadaEconomy 4.7 Trillion ( 3rd by PPP)18% of worlds population ( > 60% under 30 )2 % of worlds land (60% agricultural /30% irrigated) less than 3.5% of world renewable fresh water (Canada has 7% )Average per capita income : US$ 3851.00 (140th by PPP)Food Import bill US$ 25 Billion ( 5% of total imports)Employs >60% of work force in small scale agriculture
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Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar5India The fight between Nutrition Vs Calories
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Know your INDIAPulses area : 25-27 Million Hectares 87% Rainfed with average annual rainfall of 1000 mm ( almost double of AAP of Saskatchewan)
Two Crop CyclesRabi ( Winter Crop) Harvesting - March/April ( 65%)Major Crops Chickpea , Lentil , PeaMajor Growers M.P (33 %) UP (19% ) , AP (11%) ( Maharashtra ( 9%)
Kharif (Monsoon Season) Harvesting Sept /October ( 35%)Major Crops : Mung Beans ,Pigeon Peas ,Black MatpeMajor Growers : Maharashtra (24%) Rajsthan (15%), UP(13%) , MP (10%)Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar6
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Global Pulses Calendar7
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Pulses growing regions in India
Pulses value chain
How does India consume Pulses ?
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How does India consume Pulses ?Versatile Flour Purees Sauces Salted & Sweet Snacks Drinks Breads CakesExtremely Versatile & Diversified usage : 11000 + DishesGoogle search yields >2.2 Million resultsPulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar11
From CANADA to KOLKATAPulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar12
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Area Yields - ProductionPulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar13
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Pulses | Imports in first 9 months of 2013-14 season ( 000 MTs)
Pulses Second Advance Estimate Released on Valentines Day 14/02/2014
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INDIA Supply & DemandPulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar18
Source : Stat Publishing Canada
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The great Indian Pulses Matrix Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar19India is the largest exporter of Kabuli Chickpeas @ 175,000 MTs
The ever Devaluing Indian Rupee ( INR)Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar20
52% Fall in 5 Years
AU$ 30% Fall in 5 Years
CA$ 18% Fall in 5 Years
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Pulses | How much is too much ?
* The Great Indian Pulses Plan *To grow 32 Million MTs in 2030
Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar22Masters of the gameIndian Institute of Agricultural Research (ICAR)Indian Institute of Pulses Research (IIPR)All IndiaCoordinated Research Projects (AICRPs) on Chickpeas, Pigeonpeas, Lentils & Beans How will they do it ?Crop Development SchemesNational Food Security Mission - Pulses(NFSM-Pulses),Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY) - National Agri Development SchemeMacroManagement of Agriculture (MMA),Integrated Scheme ofOilseeds, Pulses, Oil Palm & Maize (ISOPOM)Accelerated Pulses Production Program (A3P)2013-2014 Legume Cultivation Scheme for Gram Mono Crop Areas ( Budget 2013-2014 US$ 60 Million)
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India Projected Pulse requirements 2012-2030 Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar23
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* The Great Indian Pulses Plan *To grow 32 Million MTs in 2030
Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar24How really ?QuoteTo meet the projected requirement for 1.68 Billion Indians the productivity needs to uplift at 1361 kg per ha and about 3.million ha additional area has to be brought under pulses besides reducing the post-harvest losses.Unquote Increasing government procurement prices ( MSP) in realityBringing additional 3-5 Million Hectares under Pulses cultivation Improving yield from 700 Kg/Ha to 1361 Kg/Ha
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Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar25Estimating Supply & Demand Pulses in IndiaDISCLAIMERWARNINGBusiness is unpredictable and unsafe. The Internet is dangerous. Many blogs have been written about these dangers, and theres no way we can list them all here. Read the blogs.The Internet is covered in slippery slopes with loose, slippery and unpredictable footing. The RIAA can make matters worse. Patent trolls are everywhere. You may fall, be spammed or suffer a DOS attack. There are hidden viruses and worms. You could break your computer. There is wild code, which may be vicious, poisonous or carriers of dread malware. These include viruses and worms. E-mail can be poisonous as well. We dont do anything to protect you from any of this. We do not inspect, supervise or maintain the Internet, blogsphere, ISPs or other features, natural or otherwise.Real dangers are present even on the Web. E-commerce is not the mall. It can be, and is, steep, slippery and dangerous. 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Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar26How do we estimate Supply & Demand numbers for Pulses in India
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Domestic Retail Prices (Jan 2013-2014) Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar27
Lentils Up Pigeon Peas UpMung Beans UpUrad Marginally UpYellow Peas & Chickpeas Down
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Price OutlookPulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar28
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Price OutlookPulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar29
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Price OutlookPulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar30
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Emerging Trends 1. Farmers globally- will not grow pulses unless they can make as much or more money than growing other crops Battle for Acres will keep prices volatile
2. South Asian consumers will not buy more pulses unless they are as cheap or cheaper than other foods (or they become Fashionable / Desirable)As a result, all crops will follow same price pattern
3. Developing countries will improve average yields & reduce losses at farm and in logistics & storage chain
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Emerging Trends 2
5. Changing ownership.Glencore + Viterra + ABBCargill + AWBAGT + Australian Milling Group + variousLegumex-Walker and so onArcher Daniels Midland $2.3 billion bid for Graincorp
6. Global supply chain getting shorter
( Example : India - 18 Large Exporters to India run their own Origination & Distribution in India )7. Intense Competition for market share
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Emerging Trends 3
7. New Competitors. Ukraine, Russia other CIS countriesEmergence of North and East Africa (Ethiopia, Tanzania)= still emergent but catching up fast.8. Changing MarketsGrowing Indian middle class demanding quality Dramatic changes in ChinaHealth and Nutrition New Usage of Pulses pulses as quality and healthy Ingredient to food industry seems the new Mantra= Changed demand patterns33
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AND SPECIAL MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION
Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar34
So what is in it for me ? what
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AND SPECIAL MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION
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Grow more Pulses Eat more Pulses Trade more PulsesPROMOTE PULSESHelp Fight Hunger & Protein MalnutritionHelp Marginal FarmersGive way to Healthy livingSave your soil & environmentCombat Climate Change
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AcknowledgementsCGIAR/ICARDAPulse Canada / Gordon BaconCommodity India / ForetellUSDABRIAN CLANCEY / STATPUBFAOSTAT /FAOWFPCICILS-IPTIC / Gavin Gibson The Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Department of Agriculture, Government of India, New DelhiRetail Price Section, Directorate of Economics & Statistics,Ministry of Agriculture Government ofIndia, New Delhi.P K Joshi, Devesh Roy and P Kumar, K Inbasekar, R Chanda, A Negi, G Tripathi, V Sonkar, N Datta, B Mishra and P Parthasarty Raoof International Food Policy Research InstituteGlencore India / Pravin Dongre / Saurabh Bhartia / Anurag Tulshan / Dharmendra Vijaywargi / Anand Mandan / Sandip Burman Ray / Shahwar Khan 36
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Thank you very much
Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar37
HAKAN AGRO DMCC34th Floor , Tower BB2Mazaya Business AvenueJumeirah Lakes TowersP O Box 31489Dubai ( UAE)Email : sudhakar.tomar@hakanfoods.comWebsite : www.hakanfoods.com
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