impacts of climate change in the british isles dr john e. thornes reader in applied meteorology...

Impacts of Climate Change in The British Isles

Dr John E. ThornesReader in Applied Meteorology

University of Birmingham

WM Baseline Climate 1961-90

• Mean Temperature: 9.5 deg.C• Mean Rainfall: 719 mm • Mean Sunshine: 1400 hours• No of Frost days: 36• No of Rain Days: 180• No of days Snow Lying: 18• No of Gale Days: 11• Mean Cloud Cover: 70% (5 or 6 Octas)

Scenarios

• Values quoted with respect to 1961-90• 2011 – 2040 2020s• 2041 – 2070 2050s• 2071 – 2100 2080s• Low Emissions: Widespread Clean and Efficient

Technologies• High Emissions: Very Rapid Economic Growth

WM Baseline Climate 2080s 1961-90 2071-2100

• Mean Temperature: 9.5 deg.C 11 – 14 deg.C• Paris - Marseille• Mean Rainfall: 719 mm 690 mm ? (Corsica)• Mean Sunshine: 1400 hours 1500 hrs ?• No of Frost days: 36 30 ?• No of Rain Days: 180 160 ?• No of days Snow Lying: 18 9 ?• No of Gale Days: 11 12 ?• Mean Cloud Cover: 5 or 6 octas 5 ?

• Plus More Extremes of Climate? Gales, Tornados, Floods, Droughts

Example Impacts in UK

• Water Resources: More Winter Flooding?• : More Summer Drought?• Agriculture : More Pests?• : Change Crops Biofuels?• Energy : Less Winter Fuel?• : More Summer Cooling?• Tourism : Better UK Summers?