identification of current research gaps dr nem vaughan tyndall centre for climate change research...

Identification of current research gaps

Dr Nem Vaughan Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

University of East Anglia

LWEC geoengineering meeting - Friday 20 May 2011

Dr Nem VaughanLWEC geoengineering meetingFriday 20th May 2011

Slide 1 of 10

Outline

1. Work to date

2. General

Dr Nem VaughanLWEC geoengineering meetingFriday 20th May 2011

Slide 2 of 10

Work to date

• Modelling studies• solar geoengineering - % reduction in incoming solar radiation, 2xCO2, 4xCO2

• Technical/ideas• published scientific literature• non-scientific publications - e.g. submissions to US GAO, DOE, UK select committees, The Royal Society

• Assessment• Quantitative - e.g. Lenton & Vaughan (2009)

• Qualitative - e.g. Boyd (2009), The Royal Society (2009), Vaughan & Lenton (2011), IGBP ecosystems

• Public perceptions• NERC public dialogue, The Royal Society• SPICE, IAGP (N Pidgeon), UEA PhD (R Bellamy)

• Theory • Climate change remediation, i.e. mitigation context (various)

• Governance (e.g. Victor et al 2009), Ethics (e.g. Corner & Pidgeon, 2010), History (Fleming, 2010)

Dr Nem VaughanLWEC geoengineering meetingFriday 20th May 2011

Slide 3 of 10

General areas of research interest

1. Effectiveness

2. Impacts (positive and negative)

3. Implementation dynamics

4. Resource use

5. Economics

6. Integrated assessment modelling

7. International public perceptions

Dr Nem VaughanLWEC geoengineering meetingFriday 20th May 2011

Slide 4 of 10

General areas of research interest

1. Effectiveness - Global, regional and localised effectiveness (i.e. climate change impact remediation).

2. Impacts (positive and negative)(a) Direct and indirect impacts

(i) intentional (predictable?), unintentional (ii) spatial scale - local, regional, global

(b) Earth system, e.g.,

(i) climate - e.g. temperature and precipitation(ii) biogeochemical cycles - e.g. carbon, nitrogen(iii) sea-level rise(iv) ecosystem - distribution, resilience

(c) Social

(i) ecosystem services - e.g. food, fibre, fuel(ii) opportunity costs - e.g. other land uses, emission reduction activities (mitigation)

(d) Monitoring and verification

(i) monitor/verify intended impacts

Dr Nem VaughanLWEC geoengineering meetingFriday 20th May 2011

Slide 5 of 10

General areas of research interest

3. Implementation dynamics(a) Timescale

(i) deployment(ii) impacts

(b) Reversibility

(i) technological design(ii) impacts

4. Resource use

(a) Energy, water, mineral resources

(i) demand, capacity, divert from other activities (ii) waste products, pollutants, e.g. CO2 footprint

Dr Nem VaughanLWEC geoengineering meetingFriday 20th May 2011

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General areas of research interest

5. EconomicsA robust and consistent assessment of technologies (using a method capable of dealing with the embryonic nature of some of the proposals, and the decadal timescales of implementation).

6. Integrated assessment modelling

Comparison with projected climate change impacts, trade-offs with future emission pathways and choices. (Informed by outputs from points 1 to 5.)

7. International public perceptions

International public perceptions and public acceptability.

Dr Nem VaughanLWEC geoengineering meetingFriday 20th May 2011

Slide 7 of 10