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Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
TOWARDS EIGHTH SESSION OF THE SPECA THEMATIC WORKING GROUP
MEETING ON KNOWLEDGE-BASED DEVELOPMENT
ALMATY, KAZAKHSTAN
20-22ND SEPTEMBER
ICT and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
ESCAP
Shaina Hasan & Jeremy Marand
ICT and Development Section
Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
Disaster impact in SPECA • The SPECA region is highly vulnerable to disasters such
as earthquakes, floods, landslides, drought and extreme temperature
• During the period 2000-2015, the reported 210 disasters have caused 10,639 deaths, and affected more than 16 million people
• Floods are the most frequent and costliest disasters but earthquake is the predominant risk
• Majority of population concentrated within areas of high or very high seismic hazard (Kyrgyzstan 99.9%, Tajikistan 88.3%, and Uzbekistan 80.4%) or within a moderate to very high hazard area (Turkmenistan 97% and Kazakhstan 43.6%)
• Disasters have disproportionate impact in the region. According to EM-DAT (2000-2014), two countries (Afghanistan and Tajikistan) account for 75.5% of the total economic damage in SPECA region
2
18%
45%
4%
6%
14%
4%
9%
Percentage distribution of disasters in SPECA
region ( % in terms of disaster Occurrence)
Earthquake
Flood
Drought
Extreme Weather
Landslide
Storm
Others
Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
Projected Average Annual Loss (AAL) is high
247.7
61
19.7 9.4
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Earthquake Flood Landslide Drought
Aver
age
annual
lo
ss i
n (
$ m
illi
on)
Predicted Average Annual Economic loss in ($
million)
326.0
239.0
865.1
98.4 112.7 96.4
303.7
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Mil
lio
ns
of
US
Do
llar
s
Expected AAL for Multi-Hazard
Source: World Bank and UNISDR (2009)
Source: ESCAP based on data from UNISDR (2015)
3
Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
Seismic Hazard Map
Kazakhstan
Azerbaijan
Afghanistan
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan Tajikistan
Kyrgyz Republic Caspian Sea
Source: GSHP (1999)
Kazakhstan
Afghanistan
Kyrgyz Republic Azerbaijan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Tajikistan
4
Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
Transmission Map
Source: ITU, interactive map available at http://www.itu.int/itu-d/tnd-map-public/
Kyrgyz Republic
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Afghanistan
Azerbaijan
Tajikistan
5
Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
Digital Divide in the Region
• Digital divide exists in the region. The two richest economies Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, exhibit the highest share of internet users and fixed-broadband subscribers
• In comparison, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan have the lowest share of internet users and fixed broadband subscribers
• The share of internet user in Azerbaijan was 77% as compared to 8.3% in Afghanistan
• Richer countries have a wider access to ICT for DRR/DRM but high adoption rates makes their respective economies more vulnerable if ICT assets are damaged
• There is a potential for mobile-based DRR/DRM practices in the less economically advanced countries due to a relatively affordable cost and good coverage
6
Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
0.3
18.7 24.7
7.1 5.3 12.1 8.4
61.6
111.3
187.2
132.8
98.6
145.9
73.3
8.3
77.0 72.9
30.2
19.0 15.0
42.8
0.0
19.8 13.0
3.7 0.1 0.1
3.6 6.0
60.9 60.0
31.0
12.1
28.7
Afghanistan Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
ICT penetration in SPECA in 2015, by country
fixed-telephone sub per 100 inhabitants mobile-cellular sub per 100 inhabitants
Percentage of individuals using the internet fixed-broadband sub per 100 inhabitants
active mobile-broadband sub per 100 inhabitants
Mis
sin
g
Digital Divide in the region
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan lead the way in terms of ICT indicators
Afghanistan and Tajikistan are behind
Source ESCAP, based on ITU (2016).
7
Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
• Digital divide is also noticeable in terms of coverage and cost
• However, good mobile-cellular network coverage everywhere and price of
running a mobile phone relatively cheaper compared to other countries in the
same income groups
• Main point to emphasize- affordability
Sources: cost of fixed broadband and data on fixed broadband subscriptions from ITU (2016), GNI data
from the World Development Indicators (2016).
Afghanistan
Tajikistan
Georgia AzerbaijanArmeniaKazakhstanKyrgyzstan
Uzbekistan
Pakistan
Turkmenistan
0
50
100
150
Co
st o
f fi
xe
d b
roa
db
an
d (
% G
NI
pe
r ca
pit
a)
0 5 10 15 20
Fixed Broadband Sub. per 100 Inhabitants
Broadband affordability and fixed broadband subscriptions in SPECA and neighbouring countries (2015)
8
Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
9.9
1.70.9
4.9
19.3
Low-income average (25.1)
Upper-middle income countries (2.6)
Lower-middle income countries (6.8)
World average (6.6)
0
30
Mo
nth
ly c
ost
(%
of
GN
I p
er
cap
ita
)
Afghanistan Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan
(by country, 2014)
Monthly cost of running mobile phone in SPECA
Sources: data on cost from ITU (2016), GNI per capita from World Development Indicators (2016).
9
Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
• Digital divide can also be observed between firms
• Factors influencing ICT use include business size
• SMEs rely extensively on ICT in their activities
• Availability of ICT tools for DRR/DRM practices will depend on companies’ characteristics in terms of location, ICT affordability and size
• ICT generates economic growth and economic growth leads to higher ICT adoption rates
Therefore:
• ICT is not only a tool, but also a crucial economic asset that needs to be protected both at the macro and micro levels during disasters
3.8
16.7
25.0
37.0
58.5
88.5
0
25
50
75
100
Bu
sin
esse
s u
sin
g t
he
in
tern
et
(%
)
2007 2013
Azerbaijan
37.4
70.1
77.5
49.6
73.7
95.3
0
25
50
75
100
2007 2013
Kazakhstan
Internet use, by business size
Micro (0-9 employees) Small (10-49 employees)
Medium (50-249 employees)
Source: ESCAP, based on UNCTAD (2015)
10
Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
SMEs in the region use ICT for multiple reasons. Internet is used in SMEs in Kazakhstan
and Azerbaijan for the following:
• Communication: telephoning, e-mails
• Finance: internet banking
• Online services for customers: delivery, online orders
• Getting information from the government
Source: ESCAP, based on UNCTAD (2015)
0.4 2.4
9.0 9.1 6.911.8
4.39.2
48.3 50.6
29.9
49.4
2.5
11.2
29.9
42.5
56.5
73.9
Micro enterprises Small enterprises Medium enterprises
Azerbaijan, 2013
ICT use in business (%) by enterprise size class
Telephoning e-mails
Instant messaging/bulletin boards Customer services
Information from government Internet banking
11
Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
Source: ESCAP, based on UNCTAD (2015)
6.43.6
9.1
16.6 17.221.3
47.6
8.7 10.4 12.8
31.734.9
39.9
65.3
7.311.8 13.2
29.832.8
38.8
51.9
Micro enterprises Small enterprises Medium enterprises
Kazakhstan, 2013
ICT use in business (%) by enterprise size class
Telephoning e-mails
Instant messaging/bulletin boards Customer services
Information from government Internet banking
Financial services (excl. internet banking)
12
Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
Protecting ICT Assets
Preparedness
• Identify risks and vulnerabilities through hazard mapping, seismic microzonation,
• Understand the risk for businesses and promote Business continuity plans (BCP) in SMEs. Less
than 2% of SMEs in Kazakhstan are insured against natural disaster risks. 83% of SMEs
surveyed in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) area did not have any Business
Continuity Plan
• Training and information about good practices. Governments can provide training and
information about good DRR/DRM practices to SMEs
• Better informed firms can urge their suppliers to adopt BCP as they will be more aware of the
disruptions caused by natural disasters in value chains
13
Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
Protecting ICT Assets Robustness and reliability
• Measures to mitigate traffic congestion on the network during disasters
• Measures to protect the quality and speed of data
• Increased back-up power at the base stations and all other communication facilities to counter electricity outages
• More legal and normative requirements for crucial ICT infrastructures such as datacenters and base stations
Redundancy
• Offer redundancy. Alternative paths for terrestrial internet links, more internet providers at the international frontier
• Projects such as the Trans-Eurasian Information Super Highway (TASIM) project initiated by Azerbaijan, the Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway (AP-IS) can address these needs
14
Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
Protecting ICT Assets Enhancing e- resilience
• Backing up data to improve e-resilience. Save data on external drive.
• Offsite backup by using cloud technology
Increase Use of Innovative technology in Future
• Increase use of cloud computing
• Mobile networks can be scaled up quickly using mobile base station or “cells on
wheels” to offer redundancy
• Mobile Network Big Data (MNBD)- extremely large datasets generated from
different data sources can be used for disaster data collection eg. population
displacement
15
Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
Regional Cooperation
• Many disasters are transboundary in nature with impacts felt across countries
• Need to promote regional cooperation and mechanisms particularly for transboundary
disasters
• Establishment of Asian and Pacific Centre for the Development of Disaster
Information Management (APDIM), in Tehran, Iran as regional institution of ESCAP
• Aims to reduce human losses and material damages from the negative impact of
natural hazards through enhancement of disaster information management in the
region through south-south cooperation
• Particular focus on vulnerable subregions of South and South West Asia and North
and Central Asia
• The Asia Pacific Superhighway (AP-IS) initiative mandated by member states of
ESCAP aims to provide seamless connectivity across the continent, to enhance
regional connectivity and ICT resilience across the Continent.
Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
In preparation for future disasters
• Do countries take into account disaster risks in their national policies, programmes
and planning in terms of ICT?
• How prepared are countries for seismic risks to protect damage to ICT infrastructure?
• Do countries have a DRM plan for humanitarian assistance if the ICT infrastructure
is damaged?
• How to build disaster resilience of countries that are both high-risk and low-capacity
with limited ICT infrastructure?
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Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region
THANK YOU
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