ichimoku swing trading robert c. joiner l. a. conference 2012

Ichimoku Swing Trading

Robert C. Joiner

L. A. Conference2012

Eastern Indicators:

• Ichimoku

• Heiken-Ashi

• Renko

The Present:

Tenkan-Sen = 9 moving average

Kijun-Sen = 26 moving average

Key points on Tenkan-Sen & Kijun-Sen:

• Both lines act as Support & Resistance

• Price crossing the Tenkan-Sen is the first sign of possible reversal

• Tenkan-Sen crossing up and through Kijun-Sen is more Bullish above the Kumo

• Tenkan-Sen crossing down and through Kijun-Sen is more Bearish below the Kumo

The Future:

Kumo

Senkou Span A = (9 + 26 moving averages)/2

Senkou Span B = (hi & lows P52)/2

…then drop those answers 26 periods into the future.

Key Points on Kumo:

• Kumo acts as both Support and Resistance

• Thick Kumo is stronger than thin Kumo

• Price above Kumo is Bullish

• Price below Kumo is Bearish

• Rising far right edge of Kumo is Bullish

• Falling far right edge of Kumo is Bearish

The Past:

Chiku = Closing price of current candle

…and drop that 26 periods into the past.

Key Points on Chiku:

• Chiku above the historical price curve is Bullish

• Chiku below the historical price curve is Bearish

• Chiku crossing the historical price curve is predictive of a new trend, but should not be anticipated

S&P-500 August 2011

Between9-19-11 and 10-10-11

I posted 16 trades…..

All shorts.

S&P-500 February 2012

Between12-29-11 and 2-24-12

I posted 39 trades…..

38 longs. 1 short.

Western Indicators:

• Parabolic SAR

• Money Stream

• TSV

• ADX w/DI+ and DI-

Parabolic SAR

Money Stream

TSV – Time Segmented Volume

ADX w/DI+ DI-

Key Points onWestern Indicators:

• Create intentional chaos. Use different indicators that measure different variables on different moving averages.

• Parabolic SAR is the weakest indicator, but it makes me think twice about entries and exits.

• Money Stream + TSV = “Money Indicators”…I want them to be in harmony relative to their moving averages.

Western Indicators, cont.

• ADX supports the current dominant trend, DI+ or DI-.

• I like to see ADX rising from below 10 and moving above 20+.

• The further ADX climbs above 40, the higher the probability of profit taking by investors.

• I prefer steady upper movement of the dominant DI, creating divergence with the weaker DI, rather than quick spikes.

PXP – long on 2-7 @ 40.92

RVBD – 2-7-12…did not trade

Entries & Exits:

• Ideally, you enter a long trade at a moment of weakness within the context of strength.

• We set 3% and 6% Targets, liquidating 40% of shares on each Target.

• We move our stop to break-even on the remaining shares after the first target is hit, and use a moveable stop on the remaining shares.

Bought long on 1-6-12 @ $9.78…hit 3% on 1-9-12…hit 6% on 1-10-12…moved stop 8 times…hit stop of $12.53 on 2-7-12…total profit on 20% position was 28% ROI.

How do you find stocks?

• Scans create candidates; they do not create trades.

• Scan for Eastern crossovers: Tenkan-Sen crossing Kijun-Sen, Chiku crossing the historical price curve, price moving above Kumo, etc.

• Scan for Western crossovers: DI+ crossing DI-, rising ADX values, Money indicators crossing their moving

averages, etc.

PVT scan from 2-25-12

“Is this a High Probability trade?”

What would you doon the following

stocks?

Let’s see how you did.

Questions&

Answers