iav: challenges and future steps
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IAV: challenges and future steps
Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability (IAV) Community Coordination January 8-9, 2009
NCAR
Paty Romero Lankao
Outline
How to
• Go beyond RH & connect IAV (local) with WG1/ESM, WG3 (global)?
• Make the best of a diverse IAV community?
• Deal with North-South divide, research gap?
Wilhelmi (2007)
Pros & Cons of Risk Hazard (RH)
• Well represented in IPCC
• Emphasizes exposure, mostly to climate hazards
• Relatively “simple”, fits with WG2 and WG3 approaches
• Vulnerability as outcome of relatively linear analysis
• Does not capture complexity & dynamics of vulnerability, adaptive capacity & adaptation
Sources: Hibbard et al (2007), Turner et al (2003),
Implications of multi-scale nature of climate drivers and impacts
• Selected scale can frame investigation and shape results
• Selection of a single scale can frame a project to narrowly
• Detailed scale Information contains more variance, but turns modeling more difficult
• Full learning hence requires attention to a variety of scales & real collaboration between WG1, WG2 & WG1
Source: Wilbanks (2002)
Lineages of vulnerability research– Diverse approaches
– A fully complex reality
– Highly fragmentary
– Competing paradigms
– Fewer data
– Results attached to particular approaches
– Difficult to generalize
•Make research-results compatible & comparable
•Use quantitative tools (build bridges with ESM and WGII) & combine them with qualitative tools
•Identify prototypic causal loops
•Do not forget importance of context, multi-scales, and innovative concepts, frameworks (e.g. responsive capacity)
•Include other communities (e.g., development, urban designers)
North-South divide, research gap
Source Rozensweig and Casassa et al 2007. Locations of significant changes in observations of physical systems (e.g. snow & ice) and biological systems (terrestrial, marine & freshwater), are shown together with surface air temperature changes over the period 1970 to 2004
-Initiatives to foster research and participation (IPCC, AIACC). Yet constraints persist:
a) Financial and institutional capacity
b) data, state of the art
c) language barriers
Source: De Sherbinin et al. (2007). The hazard risk of each city represents a cumulative score based on risk of cyclones, flooding, landslides & drought
- North dominates agenda
- Agenda biases, emphasis in
-certain regions
-themes (mitigation)
-dimensions (physical, cost-analysis)
Thank you !
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