how large systems change
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How large systems change: Thoughts on the future of higher education
George Siemens, PhDSeptember 3, 2013
University of South Australia
Philadelphia Inquirer Newsroom, 2009
Philadelphia Inquirer Newsroom, 2012
Technological and economic pressures change even the biggest institutions.
We don’t know what higher education will become
But we have models of how it will change
Perez 2011
Perez 2002
Perez 2002
Perez 2011
Economic
“In the face of continued increases in participation, demographic change and – in the west at least – profound fiscal crises, higher education institutions are increasingly being required to raise funds from students as opposed to relying on transfers from governments.”
Marcucci & Usher 2012
Meeker & Wu, 2013
Education Sector Factbook, 2012
IBIS Capital: Global e-Learning Investment Review, 2013
NYTimes, UNESCO Data
Economic
Meeker & Wu, 2013
Meeker & Wu, 2013
Getting the idea, but not the scope of change
What does this mean for education?
“Changing…higher education is a faculty responsibility”
Zemsky 2013
A university as
“assemblage of strangers from all parts in one spot”
J.H. Newman Lecturers 1854-1859
What we are seeing is the complexification of higher education
Learning needs are complex, ongoing
Simple singular narrative won’t suffice going forward
The idea of the university is expanding and diversifying
McKinsey Quarterly, 2012
CalculatedRISK, 2013
CalculatedRISK, 2013
CalculatedRISK, 2013
Challenge then is to create a new integrated whole
Challenge then is to create a new integrated system
University as an agent within society
Network Theory of PowerNetworking Power
Network Power
Networked Power
Network-making PowerCastells, 2011
the world will fragment, with some parts moving towards the brighter side of networked individualism and other parts moving towards gated communities and more tightly controlled information flows.
Network Theory of Change
Network Theory of ChangeCore nodes Impacting factors (economic, technical)Connection validationSocial and cultural milieu (institutional change)ResonanceIntegration (hardening) for power
Current reforms are allowing certain individuals with neither scholarly nor practical expertise in education to exert significant influence over educational policy for communities and children other than their own.
Prominent trends shaping the future of higher education
1. Openness2. Digital learning3. Granularized learning4. Data & analytics5. For-profit/startups (expanding ecosystem)6. Personalization/adaptivity7. Wearable/contextual computing8. Unbundling of organizational roles9. Blurring distinctive learning roles (lifelong)10.Degrees and alternative recognition models
When systems are distributed, alternative modes of integration are needed
Stasser-Titus (1985)
Value is in the lock-in and integration(i.e. ecosystem and new networks)
Higher education change1. Understand how large systems change2. Track data relating to sector around
technology and economics3. Position techno-economic change in social
contexts/zeitgeist/values4. Aggressive experimentation and new
models (without regard for existing norms/legacies)
5. New ecosystems and new integration models
Futures Scenarios for Universities1. Status Quo2. Accreditors (teach globally, accredit locally)
-Outsourcing of services (tech, curriculum, testing)3. Unbundled (teacher/research separate)4. Localized/specialized5. “Transformed” (online, blended)6. Successful universities as “new integrators”
- Formation of integrated value ecosystem
What to expect: - Outsourcing of services (tech, curriculum, teaching, testing)
- Increased collaboration/partnerships with sector-providers
- New entrants (often startups) into the integrated value ecosystem
- Successful universities are “new integrators”
- Labor strife
- Concerns about pace of, and ideologies behind, change
Twitter/Gmail: gsiemens
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