hj andrews experimental forest lter · 2019-05-30 · hj andrews experimental forest lter burning...
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2019 LTER Science Council May 14-16, 20192019 LTER Science Council May 14-16, 2019
HJ Andrews Experimental Forest LTER
Extra Extra!, Burning Site News: Late February 2019 disturbance event
2019 LTER Science Council May 14-16, 2019 2
Snowdown !!!!
2019 LTER Science Council May 14-16, 20192019 LTER Science Council May 14-16, 2019
HJ Andrews Experimental Forest LTER
Burning Site News: Late February 2019 disturbance event
Topic/Example: The Ecology of Surprise
2019 LTER Science Council May 14-16, 2019
2 Types of Surprise
Type 1. Surprises or amazement about how our system works.
Type 2. We thought something was X and it turned out it was Y, that theory suggests one thing and over time we see another.
10 and 40 year surprises
2019 LTER Science Council May 14-16, 2019
10 year – legacy of human impact
2019 LTER Science Council May 14-16, 2019
10 year – a warming world
2019 LTER Science Council May 14-16, 2019
10 year – challenging dogma
2019 LTER Science Council May 14-16, 2019
40 year – Response to disturbance
2019 LTER Science Council May 14-16, 2019
40 year – Fire regimes
2019 LTER Science Council May 14-16, 2019
40 year – Governance and influence
2019 LTER Science Council May 14-16, 20192019 LTER Science Council May 14-16, 2019
“[T]he extent and frequency of major ‘surprises’ in ecological systems argue for substantial humility about our predictive abilities.”
- Dan Doak
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