herman dolder - the national flood interoperability experiment: leveraging partnerships to explore...

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Developing a Method for Using Pre-Computed Scenarios of Physically Based Spatially Distributed Hydrologic Models in Flood Forecasting Systems

Towards an Experience-Based System

FORECASTINGEXPERTEXPERIENCE

ConditionsResultsActionsinput variablesvaluesoutput variablesvaluesplacesactionsLaws of NatureHuman DecisionsConditionsResultsActionsModelsHuman DecisionsLaws of Nature

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Parameters/SignsConditionsResultsActionsnnmSCENARIOSConditionsResultsActions

ConditionsResultsActionsMIXED MODEL/EXPERIENCE SYSTEMConditionsResultsActionsEXPERIENCE-BASED SYSTEMConditionsActionsExperience

Conditions

ConditionsResults

ConditionsResultsActions

ConditionsResultsActions

1000 discharge scenarios(56 flood-producing scenarios)56 flood-producing scenariosFlood animationsWater depth evolution for each scenario in 14 locations

5 initial meta-scenariosInitial set of predefined actions based on the results

Experience

Herman Guillermo Dolderhgdolder@gmail.com