greenhouse gases decomposition of emission growth session 5(b) neil leary changing planet study...

Greenhouse GasesDecomposition of EmissionGrowth

Session 5(b)Neil LearyChanging Planet Study GroupJuly 19-22, 2010

Cooling the Liberal Arts CurriculumA NASA-GCCE Funded Project

Emissions of CO2 from energy use and industrial sources.Graph generated from CAIT, July 2010: http://cait.wri.org/

CO2 emission trends: 5 country comparison

Kaya Identity & decomposition

C = Pop x GDP/Pop x E/GDP x C/E

Emissions = population x per capita income x energy intensity x carbon intensity

For small changes:% Δ CO2 = % Δ population

+ % Δ per capita income+ % Δ energy intensity+% Δ carbon intensity

Graph trends in CO2 drivers with CAIT

• Login to CAIT: http://cait.wri.org/

• Select “CAIT”

• Select “Graph Trends”• Select “Compare

Countries”

• Using pull down menus– Select variable to be

graphed– Select time period– Select countries to be

displayed – Click “Update”

Graphs generated from CAIT, July 2010: http://cait.wri.org/

Five Country Comparison

North-South Comparison

Emissions of CO2 from energy use and industrial sources.Graph generated from CAIT, July 2010: http://cait.wri.org/

Decompose North-South emission trends

• Open spreadsheet“Session 5b exercise Kaya”

Uses LMDI method to decompose emissions growth

• Download data from CAIT and copy into “Session 5b exercise Kaya”

In CAIT: Select regions to be analyzed

• Click “Countries & Regions”

• Select “Regions”• Highlight World, Annex

1, Non-Annex 1• Click [>>]• Select “Display My

Countries/Regions”• Click [Save Changes]

Download data from CAIT

• Select “Calculate Trends”• Use pull down menu to

select variable– Can only due 1 var at at

time; sorry

• Select “Download”• Open the downloaded

spreadsheet• Look in downloads folder• Copy data into “Kaya 3

Country” spreadsheet

Data source: CAIT, July 2010: http://cait.wri.org/

Data source: CAIT, July 2010: http://cait.wri.org/

Data source: CAIT, July 2010: http://cait.wri.org/

IPCC SRES projections future CO2 emissions

Source: IPCC, 2001, WGI Report, Figure 5

Decomposition of SRES Projections

Data source: IPCC SRES, 2000