greenhouse gas emissions from freight trucks · overview characterize the magnitude of growth in...
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Freight Trucks
International Emissions Inventory ConferenceMay 16, 2007
John DaviesU.S. EPA
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
Christiano Facanha
ICFI Consulting
Overview
Characterize the magnitude of growth in freight truck GHG emissions, based on data from EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks
Discuss factors affecting the rise in truck GHGs
Implications
Primary Data Source - Inventory of U.S. GHG
Emissions and Sinks
Prepared annually by EPA under United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Coordinated by EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Includes transportation estimates developed by EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality Relies extensively on data provided by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy
Accounting for Transportation GHGs in the Inventory
Included in Transportation Sector Estimates• Tailpipe emissions (from use of energy to power vehicles)• HFCs from mobile air conditioners• Natural gas used to power pipelines, but not electricityNot Included• Ozone-depleting substances, which are not counted in national
totals• Agriculture and construction equipment (generally represented in
the industrial sector)• Most lifecycle GHGs• International bunker fuels
• Reported in Inventory • Not included in national GHG totals or transportation estimates
1990-2005Total U.S. GHG Emissions up 16 percent (annualized rate of just over 1 percent)Transportation GHG emissions up 32 percent (annualized rate of 1.87 percent)Transportation accounted for 49 percent of the growth in total U.S. GHG emissions since 1990
2004-2005Total U.S. GHGs up 0.8 percentTransportation GHGs up 1.4 percent
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by End-Use Economic Sector
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
IndustryTransportation
Residential
Commercial
Agricultural
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Transportation
Industry
Electricity
Agricultural
ResidentialCommercial
Estimates do not include emissions from U.S. Territories
Growth in U.S. GHG Emissions by Economic Sector
Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005
Growth in U.S. GHG Emissions by Economic Sector
-71.8
488.1
291.0271.2
12.5
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Industry
Transportation Residential Commercial Agriculture
570.1
-118.1
485.9
29.4 13.6 10.0
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
ElectricityGeneration
Industry
Transportation Residential Commercial Agriculture
End-Use Economic Sectors
(Electricity Distributed)
Economic Sectors
(Electricity Reported Separately)
Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005
GHGs from the U.S. Transportation Sector
Since most transportation GHGs are in the form of CO2, transportation GHGs correlate closely with energy consumptionHFCs from refrigerantsCH4 and N2O affected by tailpipe control technologies
CO2
95.1%
CH40.1%
N2O1.7% HFCs
3.0%
CO2
95.1%
Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2005
Transportation 28%
(2014.0 Tg CO2 Eq)
Other Sectors 72%
(5246.7 Tg CO2 Eq)
Share of Transportation
GHGs
59.5%
7.9%
3.8%
0.8%
Passenger Cars632.9
Light-Duty Trucks566.7
Buses and Motorcycles 17.10
Freight Trucks385.1
Commercial Aircraft 158.1
Other Non-Road 176.2
Refrigerants and Lubricants 77.2
Sources of Transportation
GHGs
19.1%
8.7%
International Bunkers - Air and Marine 95.6 (Official Estimate)
Not Applicable
Transportation Source GHGs Relative to Total U.S. Emissions
Not Applicable
Non-Transportation MobileSource: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1990 2005
Tg C
O2 E
q.
Passenger Car Passenger Car
Light-Duty TruckLight-Duty Truck
Freight Trucks
Freight TrucksCommercial Aircraft
Commercial Aircraft
Other*
Other*
Light-Duty Vehicles+227 Tg
Freight Trucks+158 Tg
Commercial Aircraft+22 Tg
Up 23%
Up 69%
Up 16%
*Includes emissions from HFCs (including mobile AC and refrigerated transport), lubricants boats and ships, locomotives, pipelines, general aviation aircraft, military aircraft, motorcycles, buses. HFCs were introduced in the early 1990s as a replacement for CFCs and HCFCs.
Transportation GHG Emissions by Major Source, 1990 and 2005
Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005
Change in GHGs from Major Transportation Sources, 1990-2005
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1990 1995 2000 2005
Freight Trucks
Light-Duty Vehicles
Commercial Aircraft
1990-2005Freight Truck GHGs increased 69.4 percent (3.6 percent annualized)2004-2005GHGs increased 4.3 percent
Fuel prices not enough to trigger improvements in fuel economy, operational efficiencies or affect mode shifts
Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005
Variables affecting travel activity (Passenger and Freight)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
1990 1995 2000 2005
1990
Lev
els
= 10
0
Trucking Activity (ton-miles)GDP
Passenger Auto VMT
Conventional wisdom:
Freight movement correlated with GDP
Passenger travel correlated with population growth
Source: BTS Transportation Statistics 2005
GHG Emissions and Activity –Passenger and Freight
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Freight (all sources) Passenger
GHGs
GHGsTon-miles
VMT
Freight movement is increasingly reliant on energy-intensive modes –especially freight trucks
Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005
GHG Emissions by Freight Mode, 1990-2005
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990 1995 2000 2005
GHG
Em
issi
ons
(Tg
CO2
equi
v.)
Trucking
Water
Rail
Pipeline
Air
Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005
Freight Activity by Mode
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Percent Change in ton-miles from 1990
Ton-Miles, 1990-2004
Truck ton-miles increased substantially, but…•Growth was less than rail in absolute terms
•Growth rate was comparable to rail and aircraft
Source: BTS Transportation Statistics 2005
Rail
TrucksPipelines
Domestic Waterborne
Aircraft
TrucksAircraft
Pipelines
Domestic Waterborne
Rail
Energy Intensity of Freight Modes in 2004 (BTU / ton-mile)
3,163
325
511
2,388
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
Truck
Rail
Air
Waterborne
Pipeline
21,976
Source: PNNL 2004
Change in Energy Efficiency by Mode, 1990 to 2005
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Air Rail
Varia
tion
betw
een
1990
and
200
5 (%
)
Air Rail Trucking Pipeline
Tractor trailers became 12 percent less fuel efficient
Calculated from BTS 2005
Mechanical explanations for the decreased fuel efficiency of combination trucks
Not increased vehicle age: the average truck seems to be getting newer (5.4 years in 2002, vs. 6.4 years in 1992Demand for more powerful engines?Implementation of NOX and PM control devices?
Operational factors affecting Trucks’measured energy efficiency
Growth in the number of small shipments(just-in-time)
Increase in the number of “empty miles” traveled (result of globalized trade)Increase in the amount of idling because of congestion in certain urban areas
Impact of Fuel Costs on Truck Fuel Efficiency and Utilization
Fuel prices not enough to trigger improvements in fuel economy, operational efficiencies or affect mode shiftsIn 2003, fuel represented 8 percent of trucking costs
Wages and benefits 46 percent Equipment 27 percent
Has truck fuel efficiency bottomed out?
ThankYou
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