governing the transition to low-carbon futures: a critical survey
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Governing the Transition to Low-Carbon Futures: A Critical Survey of Energy Scenarios for 2050
Patrik Söderholm, Roger Hildingsson, Bengt Johansson, Jamil Khan and Fredrik Wilhelmsson
Lunds universitet / Fakultet / Institution / Enhet / Dokument / Datum
Background and Objectives
Energy scenarios provide assessments of how the future may unfold.
Several low-carbon scenarios for 2050 have been published, but what
are their lessons for the socetial transitions towards such a future?
This paper provides a critical review of 20 quantitative and qualitative
low-carbon scenarios, and aims at:
• analyzing key differences in the scenario outcomes presented (e.g., technology mixes and energy consumption patterns).
• discussing how transition governance issues can be integrated into the design and scope of future scenario studies.
Lunds universitet / Fakultet / Institution / Enhet / Dokument / Datum
Energy Scenarios for Transition
Governance: Some Key Concepts
• Scenario types: predictive, explorative and normative.
Our focus lies on explorative and normative scenarios
• Methodological approach: quantitative models versus qualitative information narratives.
Bottom-up and/or top-down models in the former case, and intuitive logics and explorative modes of thinking in the latter case.
• Transition governance: Two strands of thought:
1. Transition management literature: conditions for socio-technical system change, with increased emphasis on power and conflict.
2. Literature on policy and institutional change and inertia,e.g., emphasis on multi-level environmental governance.
Still little attention is paid to bringing together scenario traditions with transition theory in analyzing low-carbon pathways!
Lunds universitet / Fakultet / Institution / Enhet / Dokument / Datum
A Critical Survey of Scenarios
Quantitative scenarios (N = 16) Qualitative scenarios (N = 4)
• In most quantitative scenarios a uniform price on carbon dioxide represents
the main driver for change. Implies cost-effective policy compliance.
• Few quantitative studies address the political and institutional preconditions
for materializing the neccesary technological innovation and deployment.
• The qualitative scenarios provide important transition governance insights,
but we see little evidence of combined approaches.
Lunds universitet / Fakultet / Institution / Enhet / Dokument / Datum
Energy Scenarios for Transition Governance: Suggestions
• Transition governance issues in
designing future scenarios, e.g., to
address technological deployment
- Scenario design can be influenced by
informed reasoning aboout institutional
constraints about technology diffusion.
- Stronger focus on second-best policy
designs (e.g., combination of carbon
pricing and technology policies).
• Analyzing the model results ex post
- Cost-effectiveness does not imply policy
legitimacy, i.e., stronger focus on
distributional effects.
- The ancillary benefits of climate policy
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