gold seasonal trading strategies presented by:

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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies

Presented by:

Louis Paquette

Publisher, EGS

www.emerginggrowthstocks.ca

“PRESS THE “SPACEBAR” ON YOUR KEYBOARD TO ADVANCE

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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies

Question: In ONE WORD, what is the biggest challenge facing stock market investors and speculators?

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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies

UNCERTAINTY• Over: • Overall market conditions• Interest rates• Commodity prices• Specific company performance• Government intervention• Odds of discovering a mineable economic deposit• Competition• Etc.

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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies

So what is certain?• Stock rise an average 7% per annum over time, but not consistently• There is a rhythm to asset price movement (cycles) from overbought

to oversold, from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic• A contrarian can take advantage of this to boost returns and reduce

losses

Optimism

Pessimism

Stocks

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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies

has strong annual seasonal cyclical tendencies

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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies

Once Gold is overbought – it always returns to the moving average

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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies

HUI Index Another strong tendency: Gold strength seems to alternate from year to year.

StrongWeakWeak StrongStrong

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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies

An aggressive way to play the cycle Horizon BetaPro ETFs HGD & HGU

Buy HGD anytime now on dips (on rallies in gold price) sell this summer

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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies

Advantages of Horizon’s ETF’s

1. Go Long or Short (“U” UP or “D” Down)

2. I.E.: HGD or HGU

3. Shorting and leverage without the hazards of short selling or options & futures

4. 2 X Leverage • If Gold moves 2% down, • HUI 4% • HGD 6%

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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies

This summer: Sell HGD, Buy HGU

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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies Example of the leverage: 1-Day

return using the HGU.TSX ETF on Jan 2,2008

Close Dec 31

Close Jan 2

Change Percent

Gold (Feb) $838 $860 +$22 +2.6%

HUI Index 409 435 +26 +6.0%

HGU.TSX ETF

24.22 27.85 +3.63 +15.0%

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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies

5 month returns

5-Months August low

Close Jan 8

Change Percent

Gold (Feb) $660 $880 +$220 +33%

HUI Index 300 458 +158 +52%

HGU ETF 16 32.20 +16 +100%!

*All in Rounded numbers

The HGU.TSX ETF clearly delivers superior returns

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August low

Close Jan 10

Change Percent

iShares XGD $65 $90 +$25 +38%

streetTRACKS GLD

$64 $88 +$24 +37%

Central Gold Trust GTU

$24 $35 +$11 +45%

Horizons BetaPro HGU

$16 $33 +$17 +$106%

Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies HGU vs. Other Gold ETFs

5 month returns

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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies Specific Suggested trades

1. Buy HGU (Horizon Gold UP)• At Cycle Bottom (June to August)• Sell at Cycle Top (Feb to May)

2. Buy HGD (Horizon Gold DOWN)• At Cycle Top (Feb to May)• Sell Cycle Bottom (June to August)

Web Site: www.hbpetfs.com/hgu.asp