globalism versus nationalism · in the souls of the people, the grapes of wrath are filling and...

Globalism versus Nationalism

Rawi Abdelal

April 2019

The past is never dead. It’s not even past.

—William Faulkner, Requiem for a Nun

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Three themes, three cycles:

A great power transition, still unfolding

Borders and the Other

Inequality and the Center

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Rise and fall

A great power transition

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Re-bordering the borderless world

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Some lingering, festering debates

About inequality

The Other

And how the elites let down “the people”

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Debates leading to populism on the Right

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Dutch parliamentary elections, March 2017

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French presidential and parliamentary elections, April-June 2017

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German parliamentary elections, September 2017

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Italian general election, March 2018

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Brazilian presidential election, October 2018

And on the Left

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Italian general election, March 2018

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Mexican general election, July 2018

And Left-Right

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France November 2018 – April 2019

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Belgium December 2018

The weakening middle

Between the angry extremes

With pressures for fragmentation

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Such as the BRexit

As a matter of consequence

And as metaphor

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50%50%

80Immigration

51Capitalism

71Internet

69Globalization

78The Green movement

74Feminism

80Social liberalism

81Multiculturalism

79

49

51

62

62

60

68

71

Share of survey participants who supported both leaving

the European Union and felt negative about a number of

concepts

Share of survey participants who supported both remaining in

the European Union and felt positive about a number of

concepts

LeaveRemain

BREXIT:FAULT L INES

OF

GLOB AL IZAT ION

Such as the 2016 U.S. election

As a revolution (of sorts)

And as allegory

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In the souls of the people, the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage.

—John Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath

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Reflections on the Revolution in France

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Inquiries into the Italian “Tsunami”

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The future enters into us, in order to transform itself in us, long before it happens.

—Rainer Maria Rilke

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