global wind energy report 2008
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O c t O b e r 2 0 0 8
GlObal Wind enerGy
OutlOOk 200 8
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Co
1 . drivers Or Wind enerGy 4
s o 5
eoo oo 5 eo o 6
2. the WOrlds Wind resOurces 8
3. technOlOGy
a n d i n d ustr i a l d e ve lO p m e nt 10
mo w 11
m o 12
i oo 12
4. GlObal statusO the Wind enerGy market 14
eo 15
eo uo 15
G 17
s 17
i 17
17
u kgo 17
po 17
t 18
no a 18
u s 18
c 19
a 19
c 19
i 20
l a 21
bz 21
mo 21
m e & a 22
eg 22
mooo 22
p rgo 23
a 23
nw Z 23
5 . inteGratinG Wind enerGy
intO electricity Grids 24
v o w ow 25
dg oo o ow 25
sog oo 26
G 27
W ow oo o q 27
G oo 27
6. Wind pOWer
and the envirOnment 28
eo b 29 cO
2o 29
a oo 29
O 29
eo i 30
v 30
no 31
b 31
Oo w 33
coo 33
7. the GlObal Wind enerGy OutlOOk
scenariOs 34
so 35
r o 35
mo o 35
a o 35
eg ojo 35
r d pojo 35
eg e d pojo 36
m ao p 36
Gow 36
t 36
c o 36
c o og o 37
so r 39 r o 39
mo o 40
a o 40
rgo ow 40
co b 43
i 43
Go o 43
eo 44
co o g 46
r bgo 46
t G ao c 46
so go 47
eg 47
do o go o w iea o 48
8. internatiOnal actiOn On
climate chanGe 50
t koo pooo 51
m 51
co coo 53
W g cdm oj 54
W g Ji oj 55
t o o-2012 g 55
annex 58
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Foo
Over the past year Or sO o-
o w g
o o g o .
W o o ipcc, iea o
g g o o o
wo, w ow gog o
g o o g g o o.
c, o w ow ow o g
g o o w o w
go o g g.
b ow o o w ? W o
go w ( o g :) w o ? t qo
Go W eg Ooo o w.
pogoo go o
o. W o o o
g o ow w o o g,
ow o gow
g o, w w ow
g g o , o
50 o us o 2007 o. mo w ow w
eo 2007 o oog, o
40% o w ow go , o
o o 30% o w go
u s g o. O q
g o ,
jo o 2007 w o eo, o-
u s c.
t o w ow o f
o g o o. t o
og o wo , jo o o ,
o wo
o g o. a , o go
go g og g o
, o o ow,
o, o o o oo
w ow g, og g o q jo
o o o oo, -
. o sww, t, o uq
c xjg o; o c i o oz
ne bz, o swg ho o t b
o, w ow g w jo
oo oo o ; w, o
o, , o- .
a go gg o o w -
o g, o o go. a ow ipcc 4
a ro, go o go
go g o , g o 2020
. t w o g
go o o wo g o
g. t o, oj o
w g.
t ow o o o w
o o go g o, g,
og o 40% o go o o o.
i w w o jo ow o
o w ow 2020, oo:
o, ; wo, wg o o o g;
, w, w o w ow
.
a o Go W eg Ooo,
w o o w un
s G g gg o
21 . W o w gwo, o o o.
steve saWyer
Secretary General Global Wind Energy Council
sven teske
Director Renewable Energy Campaign Greenpeace International
arthOurOs ZervOs
Chairman Global Wind Energy Council
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1 . drivers Or Wind enerGy
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the grOwth OF the market o w g g
o o, g w o o
g , g o o o-
, g,
o oog . t o
o go o wo o og o
o o o.
sc o l
Go o g g g
, c, i o og oo. t wo
g w q g w
ow gg g ,
og wo.
i o o.
W g, o o
oo og o . m o
ow w oo o wog .
t iea 2030, o 2,000 GW o ow
go w o Oecd
o, g o g .
J g o o , o
o ow go, og
o o o . O
o o jo oo o wo -
g g o o o,
o o go o wo w of
o o .
i o o og o
oo , o , w g
go ow o w
o wo. t o
o, o go-o o o
o o o go.
e ow/o g w ow
o o o o, og o
o o o ,
w o o o u s w
o o o o o o o
o . t g o oo o
a, a so a wo oo
o .
W ow o g o
o g oog. e g
oo w , w q g o
g wo oo,
o o wo . t o w
og o oo ow o
o.
ecooc coo
W g o oo . i o o
w g, o o ow , o
o o o w w ow:
zo. o oo go oog,
o g o,
o, o o g
o o .
W ow, ow, ow ow
g gog o o. no oo oog
( o w ow gg
oog) . t o
o o o o ow
oo, o o go g o
g o ooo o
o w g o o oo
.
i o, , w ow o
w w- oo oog, o . aog og o w g,
oo go
o ( w o o w g
: go z oo
oog o o 250 o usd/), w
ow o , w g o
o o o, w o gowg
o .
rgo oo o o o
oo oo og w g. o
swg-ho o G, o a
s; o us p now o w t o
d r i v e r s O r W i n d e n e r G y
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p; o xjg i mogo c
o t n Gj i, w ow
g go oo, og q jo
g go ggg o
oo og o go fg o
.
eol coc
c g ow g o g
o g wo, g o
o o o
jo o o o . t un igo-
p o c cg oj g
o wo w o 5.8c
o og . t o w
g o , g g , foog oow-g , o, og o g
w .
O o g o no pz wg
ipcc 4 a ro 2007 w
o o o wo g o g, go
go g o g o
o 2020.
W ow o o g o
w o o g, g g
o o o, og o o 40% o cO2
o, o 25% o o o. t oo
o g jo o o ow o
w ow 2020 : g
oo; wg o o o g;
w g, w ow.
W ow o o g g
o o o o o w og
jo o wo og o o
o g. W o
o o oo, w o o
oo, o o o
o 20 . , g
o-o wo, w ow -
g og ow o o -
.
G o 2020 g w go
o o , o o ow o o og
g. bg oo ow 10 o
12 o o, o, o ow g
g. W ow o o,
o w j ow ,
g o g ow o oo
o o g.
ao oo o w g o o
w. i g w- wo, w ow
o o o o o oo
oo. mo oo oog, o g
d r i v e r s O r W i n d e n e r G y
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o o og oog
w o o .
O o g o g o
o g
go g o o oo g,
oo o
o w o o o
oo w g o .
eog w o o g, g w
ow, o z.
d r i v e r s O r W i n d e n e r G y
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2. the WOrlds Wind resOurces
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One OF the questiOns o o o w
ow w w w o ow. W
o o qo w 5 (G
go), g w
o o g wo
o. i , o,
g , w w o o o
w g oog, g o o
o o go o. how, wow
o o o o o
o.
r so u Go c eg poj o o go
o o w ow, g o o us
no c d c o s
loo 1). t wo w o
g o og ow o o go
g . a og o 7,500
500 oo- oog o o
go w 80 o go
, o 13% g w
o 6.9 o (c 3), o
oo w ow go. ug o 20% o
o o o ow go, o o-
w g o wo
2000 o.
no a w o o g w ow
o, og o o og w w
o no eo, w o o so
a a o t o o
g og w. to , ow,
o g w o o o, o o; w
o oo o, o
oo o, w oo.
o , oog o o ow
w o o o o
o o us, o m o no co,
g o o w o o o-
o o g w o o
o z, o g-
og go o wo 2).
a G ao co o Go cg
(WbGu), Wo to tow s eg
s (2003) go
o o g oo o o oo
oo w o w 278,000 tW (tw
o) . t o o 1015%
o o wo o,
g o o 39,000 tW
oo o w g og
, w o o go
.
t WbGu o o o w o g o w o ooog
o o 14 o (19791992). t o
-gw w g
o wo . lo o o
og g
o, w, , g .
ag, o o , w o g o-
o o w g o .
loog o o w o 13
og o, sWera (so W eg
ro a) oj, o u
no eo pog, o o,
o , o 7,000 mW o w G
26,000 mW s l. n o
o o o g o.
a o og, sWera
2006 o g og w o og g
q oo o w g o o
o go o wo, og w oo o w w
g o . t o o
gg o o-g , w s
3t g g wo og
2008, w go o g o -
o wo 2010.
i , w ow ,
o ow o, o w o o
g o.
3 . t h e W O r l d s W i n d r e s O u r c e s
1 Archer, C. L., and M. Z. Jacobson (2005), Evaluation o global wind power, J. Geophys. Res.,110, D12110, doi:10.1029/2004JD005462.
2 Kempton, W., C. L. Archer, A. Dhanju, R. W. Garvine, and M. Z. Jacobson (2007), Large CO2
reductions via oshore wind power matched to inherent storage in energy enduses, Geophys.Res. Lett., 34, L 02817, doi:10.1029/
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3. technOlOGy and industrial
develOpment
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mo
s 1980, w o w
w o, ,
g o oo.
aog w ow
g o, g ooo
o . t jo o
o ow o o ozo w
. t o oo
o w ow og go o
go. t go go o w og . so g o
go g . t -
ow ow o o o
g wo.
W o o w g o w
- o 3-4 o o o 25 /,
w o 90 / (56 ), wo
q o g o 9 o 10. t jo o
o o o o
w gg g o og
oo, g o wg oo w
o og . Oo
o o g w
o o w
oo o g. so oo
g o o
o.
mo w oog o o
w g o w ow g w , zg . c o
o o w o w g ,
g w g w o
. ug gwg o
, o g ,
g.
t o c colo :
reliability
gridcompatibility
acousticperformance(noisereduction)
maximumefciencyandaerodynamicperformance
highproductivityforlowwindspeeds
offshoreexpansion
W o gow g . t
go g o 100
z o o 1980. O o, oo
g-o. t g o o wo g 2007 w
1,492 W, w g oo
eo e126, w oo o 126
ow o 6 mW.
t o g
oo , w g o
o o oo. g g
oo , og
g o o o o oo
o o o o . aog oo w
o g
o 3.6 mW, g o g o 5 mW o ow
g o o o
og .
o o , ow, w
g o z 1.5 o 3 mW g. t
oo o o o
o g, g g o o o
o .
Ogog oo g o
oo o oo o -
, o wg o
, o o o
, o oo ,
o o w g wo.
t e c h n O l O G y a n d i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l O p m e n t
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mc llo
co w o oo
o ogo wo. t
g d,
G, s, u s, i c. aog
oo o eo, go
o oog ow
o o, o c, w ow
o o g g
wo.
m o w o g
g o o o o
o oo ow oo -
q.
mo o q o ;
oo o o o. t o
o o o o
go. W z o
w gw o . t g w
wo ho hoow W eg c t.
a o o 421 w o g
o 735.5 mW.
a g us o w g, t ow
g o $4.9 o ow g w
o g gw o o
o o w o o . t w
g w o o 18,000 mW o w
, og o ow o o o us o.
t o w o w o
o g g -
. i w o, o , w
o o ow w
o d, g oo o g
( chapter 5: Grid integration).
i oo
a oo , w g
o g . t jo w
ow oog -o o o o
wo o o .
a o, w g g o
o o o. i 2002, o ,
eo W w og o o
G e, o o wo g ooo. t
w oow s, w oo o d
bo eg 2004. mo , g
eo o ao a o
w .
O , g oo
ow o ow o jo ow
oo o w . s io
t e c h n O l O G y a n d i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l O p m e n t
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w o 8,000 mW o w ow
ooo. pl eg u s w o
5,500 mW, gowg o
g w ow , uk so
e, rWe, e.On, ed o.
ao g o o o o
o w ow. bp, o , j
jo w o o u
s c. t qo w
o o g
.
t e c h n O l O G y a n d i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l O p m e n t
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4. GlObal status O the Wind enerGy
market
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in its best year yet , go w
o o 20,000 mW o w 2007. t o-
, u s, s c, oo
wow o o 93,864 mW. t w o 31%
o w 2006 o
go o o 27%.
t o o o
o 2007 w G (22.3 GW), us (16.8 GW),
s (15.1 GW), i (7.8 GW) c (5.9 GW). i
o oo , go w 2007 w wo
o 25 o (us$37 ) w gg q
o 34 (us$50.2 ) o o -.
W eo g o w g,
w eo o j 43% o
go o, ow o 75% 2004. o
, o o w w
o eo. t o o.
eo
EuropEan union
t eo uo o o wo og
o w g o, w o 8,500 GW o
w 2007. c w
18% o o 56,535 mW.
W ow o o 30% o w
go o eu 2000
2007 o w ow w o
gg oog.
t o w ow o 2007
w o o 90 o o o cO2
o 119 tw o g w . t
q o 3.7% o eu ow .
rw g o eo
koo- g o 22% o o o o
w 2010 o o o
og 2001 eu rw eg
d. t ow o w g o
20% o g oo o w 2020,
w w g o 27 .
t o w g eo
G, s, , i uk, w po
t o o o w og
o.
t h e G l O b a l s t a t u s O W i n d p O W e r
MW
1996
6,100
1997
7,600
1998
10,200
1999
13,600
2000
17,400
2001
23,900
2002
31,100
2003
39,341
2004
47,620
2005
59,084
2006
74,051
2007
93,864
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
GLOBAL CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY 19962007
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TOP 10 NEW INSTALLED CAPACITY (JAN.-DEC. 2007)
PR China
Spain
India
Germany
France
Italy
Portugal
UK
Canada
Rest of the world US
New capacity MW %
US 5,244 26.4
Spi 3.522 17.7
PR Ci 3,304 16.6
Ii 1,575 7.9
Grmy 1,667 8.4
Frc 888 4.5
Ity 603 3.0
Prtug 434 2.2
UK 427 2.1
C 386 1.9
Rest of the world 1,815 9.1
Top 10 Total 18,050 90.9
World total 19,864 100.0
T h e G l o b a l S T a T U S o F W I n d P o W e R
MW
1996
1,280
1997
1,530
1998
2,520
1999
3,440
2000
3,760
2001
6,500
2002
7,270
2003
8,133
2004
8,207
2005
11,531
2006
15,245
2007
19,865
20,000
18,00016,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
GLOBAL ANNUAL INSTALLED CAPACITY 19962007
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000 MW
Europe North America Asia Latin America Africa & Middle East Pacific
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
ANNUAL INSTALLED CAPACITY BY REGION 20032007
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GErManY
W ow g w g o
G, og o 7% o o
oo. i 22,247 mW,
g o o wo. t g o 25-30%
o o o o w, w,
2020.
t og w o
og 1991, w g -
o w ow go. G
og , w go o 22%. t o o o
80,000 o.
aog o ow ow 2007 o
1,667 mW, o w g w
o G o o o
w .
Spain
t s w g w gow
2007. a o 3,522 mW o w w ,
gg o o 15,145 mW. W ow ow
10% o o .
t s o o o go
g o 20,000 mW o w g
2010. moo, s W eg
aoo (aeeo) 40,000 mW o oo
5,000 mW o oo o og 2020, og o o 30% o s .
iTaLY
t i w g gw 2007 30 % o
o o 2,726 mW. i o
o g o 12,000 mW 2020 o
2015.
t o o go
oo, o , g
oo . i 2007, ow, i
go o lw w w q
go o o o o ow
oo o w g o.
FranCE
jo w o, ow
, w g ogg .
i 2000 w o 30 mW o ; o
2007 o 2,454 mW, w
3,500 mW o o oo.
t gow o w g
o o - 2001. t go g o 25,000 mW o w
, g oo, 2020.
uniTED KinGDoM
t u kgo w g o o 15% o
g o w 2020. i w o
eo w ow o jo -
g ; b W eg aoo
13 GW o w oo 20 GW oo
2020 .
b o 2007 uk
2,389 mW, w 1,373 mW oo. i
o, o o 1,974 mW o o
7,579 mW g . s g
oo w .
poLanD
aog o, 276 mW,g o po o oo o w
ow go. t oo g o 12,000 mW
2020, og o po W eg aoo.
i 2005, po go o og
ogo o g o o g o
o w g o. u w
eu oo, po o w g
g o 15% 2020.
t h e G l O b a l s t a t u s O W i n d p O W e r
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TurKEY
t o g o
oog o w g o og
g o o. i 2007
o 97 mW o w w g w ,
g o o 146 mW. a o m 2008, w
o 1300 mW oo, 1100 mW o w
1500 mW g. t o
wog 78,000 mW o w o o
go .
no ac
uniTED STaTES
t us o o 5,244 mW 2007, o
o o g og o
o 30% o o w ow-og .
O us w ow gg gw 45% , w o ow g 16.8 GW.
t a w o 2007 w
g 48,000 GW 2008, j o 1% o
us ow . t us o o
o 50% o, 20% , 20% g 6%
oow, w g o o o-o
w, og o us eg ioo
ao.
mo g ow q w gowg o
: w oj o o o 30%
o w ow-og us
2007, g w ow oo o
w go.
i 2007, w ow oo w o 34 us
, w t oog mw
now o g . t w o
w ow t
(4,356 mW), co (2,439 mW), mo (1,299 mW),
iow (1,273 mW) Wgo (1,163 mW).
t gow o o
o o o oo
(ptc) o . t ptc o
us o w ow, og
1.9 us ow o o
g w w o o
oj oo, o g w
w . i o o q, oj o
gg ow w . t
g o o o o us
oo; o g o w g o.
t ptc w Oo 2008 o og
o 2009,
o o 2009 o. i
o o , og w -
w ao wog w w
cog g 2009. po, w w o
w o o , o gow
93% (2000), 73% (2002) 77% (2004).
t h e G l O b a l s t a t u s O W i n d p O W e r
Top TEn uS STaTES bY MEGaWaTTS oF WinD poWEr GEnEraTinG CapaCiTY (aS oF 30 JunE 2008)
Stte Estg ude cstct % f ttl stllts estg rk estg
t 5,604.65 3,162.35 28.67 1co 2,483.83 295 12.71 2
iow 1,375.28 1,586.60 7.03 3
mo 1,366.15 249.5 6.99 4
Wgo 1,289.38 77.2 6.60 5
cooo 1,066.75 0 5.46 6
Ogo 964.29 298.2 4.93 7
io 735.66 171 3.76 8
nw yo 706.8 588.5 3.62 9
Oo 689 18.9 3.52 10
Source: AWEA
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i us w o G
g w g o o 2009. t
a W eg aoo
o 7.5 GW o w w w
2008.
CanaDa
c w g o
2007. a o o 386 mW o w w
, g o 26%. c ow 1,856
mW o w .
t w oj w g 2007
c o. t g w 100.5 mW a--
v w Q, o o
ho-Q o oo o o 1,000 mW.
c 2008 w g o o
o o o 2,800 mW, o o w o
g o 2010. i o,
w o g o w 2007
o o mo, Q, nw bw
no so w o 4,700 mW o w oj
o o 20092016.
t c W eg aoo o c
w 2,600 mW o o 2008.
po go g oj c,
, o o 12,000 mW o o-
o 2016.
a
China
c 3,304 mW o w g 2007,
gow o 145% o 2006, ow
o - w 5,906 mW o
. e , ow, j g-
g, gow c o o. t
go w w g o og
o o o w o o.
k o i mogo, xjg, G
po h coo, o o no-e c, Qg-t p.
sg og g
oo g o o
o w g c. G o o
o ow o o o-
go, o o o w ow q
. t g og o o
g oj oog o o
.
t c go oo o
w g o o
oo o ow. moo, o
goo w o o oo ,
w oo o oo og
o o o go, o
oo o, g o o -
o w o w oo
.
t w g c oog. i
, o w o ,
gg gowg o
o og o oo.
a o 2007 w 40 c
o w g, og o o 56% o
q g , o 21% o
2006. t g o
. to o g ow
o 8,000 mW, o o 12 GW
2010. e jo c
Gow, so, dogg, W sw. .
t h e G l O b a l s t a t u s O W i n d p O W e r
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inDia
W g og o gow og i, w o
1,500 mW o w 2007, g o
o 7,845 mW. t o gow o 25%.
t o o i w ow o
o w go, o
o t n, w o o o o
o. t gg o g, w o ,
g m, Gj, rj k,
W bg, m p a p g
o . a w
oo g o o, o o
o .
t i go g o
o o 2,000 mW og .
W o-w o o w ow w j
o J o 2008, i m o nw
rw eg (mnre) g o
go o o o
o, , wg g o
g w ow oj. s e rg-
o coo (serc) w o o
t h e G l O b a l s t a t u s O W i n d p O W e r
FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC PLAYERS I N THE CHINESE MARKET ANNUAL INSTALLED CAPACITY
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%Foreign Domestic Joint Venture
2004
75%
25%
2005
70%
30%
2006
55.1%
41.3%
3.7%
2007
42.2%
55.9%
1.6%
Source: 2007 China Wind Power Report (Li Junfeng, Gao Hu); GWEC
GROWTH OF THE CHINESE MARKET 19952007
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2007200620052004200320022001200019991998199719961995
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w o oog w, g w,
og ogo o
o o o o o
o w g. t o o i 29
w ogo, qg o
o o 10% o ow o w.
t i go og g -
o, g o w
o o . W wo o
o, w o o
o, o o o .
i o o g , g
go szo, w o o o o
. i o, o o o
oo i, g v, row,
s, lm G eo.
L ac
braziL
W g bz ow,
g 247 mW o 2007. t o o
o o o o o
w . W ow, ow, o gow
.
i 2002, bz go og
prOina o o o o,
w o ow go. t w w
no 2003.
i g ( o 2008/9), og g
ow o o 3,300 mW o oj, og
o q o 1,100 mW o o
oog. W w o
1,400 mW. t bz -oo
eo ow o w g
20 ow g -
.
Og o g o prOina w g w
o g o w o o
10% o oo w 20 .
rw g go wo q
o rw eg c ooo o
o o g o. how, g
o prOina og,
o o g o w oj
go o.
po o 2008 o o: 14 w
oo prOina
og, w o o 107.3 mW. i o,
27 w g 901.29 mW o
o g 2009.
mo 5,000 mW o w g oj
g w bz rgo ag
(aneel), wg o o o w
o o o ow w g oo.
t oj o-prOina, go o o o ,
oo o
ow.
MExiCo
d o o o, o
w g mo ow, o
o go o go
wo ogg o o. a
, o 85 mW, w
g w o 83.3 mW
t h e G l O b a l s t a t u s O W i n d p O W e r
-
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l v oj o s oo
io-G.
a o o o o
w g o mo, g jo
c-G, d, ed-en, eo, z
e, io, p, u o. aog o
m W eg aoo (amdee), o
o ooo o 2,600 mW O
o 1,000 mW bj co o o
o 2008-2010.
t ooo oo o o o o w w g
mo. i o, g oj o
o o o g g g-
o, w o o. moo,
og o o ow
w g o oo .
ml e & ac
EGYpT
eg jo w g,
sz G, w g w o 10 /.
eg w g o j 5 mW
2001 o 310 mW o 2007, w 80 mW o w
2007.
t Z oj o G o sz ow o
eg w . O, 305 mW
g o 2001 og o 2007. e ooo Z ow o 1,000 GW
g o o 40.6%. a 240 mW
o o.
i o o , o 656 2 o
o 3,000 mW w G o e-Z o G o
sz o. s g o o
o o o g w o o 200 mW
ooo w G go, 220 mW
ooo w J 400 mW o
oj.
i a 2007, eg s co o eg o
o o g 20% o o -
o w o 2020, g 12%
oo o w. t wo o 7,200 mW
o g-o w . i o w g
o eg o
og w g o o
o; g o o g
o w g.
MoroCCo
W 3,000 o o g g w
(7.5-9.5 / o 9.5-11 / o), w
ow o o o og o o w
g go mooo. t moo go
o o w o
124 mW, og 2% o o , o1,000 mW 2012. a , go g o
og o o 600 mW ow o
to, t tz.
t moo no pog o do o
rw eg eg e (pnderee)
w o o oo o
w g o 20% o o o-
o 10% o g 2012 ( 7.9%
3.4 % ).
-
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pcc ro
auSTraLia
W o o wo w o, a
o w g. t gowg
g o oo, goo o g -
w og g .
aog o ow ,
g o go o 2007 o o
g o w g. W o o g wo
o o, w lo p m k r
koo pooo, gg a
o o g go g o. t
o o og- o w g
o.
to og w o 2007 w 824
mW. i o, oj w o o o
860 mW w o g o oo. sg
w o og og g g, w
o 400 mW g g o g 2007.
t w go a o g
o 2% o o o o w g 2020
o 20%. t g w q o 10,000 mW o w
w g oj o o .
t w o o jo o g
.
nEW zEaLanD
nw Z w g gowg
. c o o 2007, o 171 mW o
322 mW.
t w o o o
o go, ow w
g oo o w o o o
go. O o o
o w o g
o. i 2006 g o o nw
Z w w 41%. t o 2007
45%, w o w g o 70%
w o.
i 2007 go o g o nw Zo g 90% o o w o
2025. i g o 65%, o
o. to g, w g o gow
o 200 mW .
W o o 1.5% o nw Z
, w oo o
o o o go go, o-
o o gow. do g o o
oj w o o o 1,800 mW.
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5. i nteGratinG Wind enerGy intO
electricity Grids
-
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wind pOwer as a generatiOn sOurCe
, w gog
o. t g o go o
g o o w ow o g.
i o o g g o o w ow -
, o o , g
g oo o ow , g
g oo o w ow 1).
vl o o
W ow o g
o, o . i , ow
, w g o o o g
, o g. t o
o ggg w , j ow
.
s w ow oo o w,
o o w o ,
f o ooog fo. t o
o o : o, , o, ,
o, o . ug g
o o gg w
ow o ow o o .
e fow o
, ow f g
o o,
g o o w o og
ogo, oo oo.
cgg w o w g, oog
gg o o, o o o
ow o tv o. O , w
g ow o, , o, go
of, w o ow, o o
o, g o o
o gw. b o, w g o o
o . vo oo
o o o w
g ow o, g o oo
o g g . e g,
o g, o w
o owg o .
p gg w ow ,
g og o-
g o. to, w ow o q
o ggg w g . ug g
o w o, w ow go
o , o o
go o o o o
o 72 o , o o
o. ug oo, o o o
g w w 10 20% o ow o
o o ozo o 36 o. o go ggg
w o o o o 10% o
5% o 1-4 o .
t o gog o o g-
. W g w ow
wg o o o o o o 60% o ,
oog G iset ow
o o o 350 mW o
ggg w G o o 20%.
ao g , no og o
o (, sw, now e d),
g o o wo 10%,
og o . 3)
d oo o o
O o o q g og
o o gg w g o
wo oo. a
,
w o (ow o) og o o g o (o) g o.
t g og og . o
g oo, o og
w o . i o
o o oog, w
, .
pow w o w
o o o g ow , o-
o w o
w ow oo w. t o o o
o , ow o , g
, w oo o o .
i n t e G r a t i n G W i n d e n e r G y i n t O e l e c t r i c i t y G r i d s
1 See also EWEA (2009 - orthcoming): Wind Energy The Facts, Volume 22 ibid
3 Holttinen, H. (2004): The impact o large scale wind power on the Nordic electricity system
-
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e ow oo o
o g w
o q o og w
o o w g o o
o o 20%, g o o
qo. t 20% g ,
w w o o . t o
f ow o og o o
o o ,
go o go o w
g. i , f , w o
g o o ow g go
ow , w g g o wow g wo jo g.
W eo, d g 21% o go
o w, s o 12%,
pog 9%, i 8% G 7%. so go
g o. i w o
d, o , o 100% o
o w ow.
G oo o eo o, g
s pog, ow o oo
w oo g
o f o w .
t o w ow o o
ow o g
oog o g . e w o
60 GW eo, o , ow w
o g, ow o
oo, w o g
o.
ao q g og w ow
o o o go
q, o w ow o
.
W ow o o o
go g ow , g o
w w o ow z, go ,
o o, z g g o g
oo. how, g ow
g o o o,
ow. t f o oow
g o og o w
.
s o o -
o w gowg w o
o. u o o 20% o w ow o,
o w
g . s o go
o g o o o 0 o 3 /
mW o o w ow o 20%. i s, w 12%
o w o, o o g ow w
2007 1.4 /mW 4).
t o g o o w g-
w go o o o 10% o w
ow go o 5), g o ow
f, o o- og
g-o ow . t
o o o ow o o zo.
i o o o o gg g o
w, f o ow . t
oo o f go ,
og , f o , o-
o w o ow o f
ow .
so oo
t g o g og
o ,
og o wo. t
g o og oog o w.
o g- og, o o og
(pac) o oo ow oog,
w o o go. ao oog
oo o g o g
og (caes).
O og oo fw,
, o oo w ,
, o -o. o,
oo o o o o o
l on n owr loon (chp) n
orr o nr oronl fxly o n.
i n t e G r a t i n G W i n d e n e r G y i n t O e l e c t r i c i t y G r i d s
4 iea t 25/vtt (Oco 2007): s o o oo o o l o o o
5 ewea (2009 - oco): w e t Fc, vol 2
-
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howvr, o on o org l o
nrgy lo, n no nrly n n oon or
ngng wn r o. i onry o no v
vorl gogrl onon or yro rrvor,
org no n rv olon o oor
ono or wn owr nron lvl ( o
20%). in ny , o org o ln vron
wn ln lvl nr nry nor ono.
grid infrastructure
t nr o wn owr r nvrl gnron or rqr nrrr
nvn n lnon o nw nology n
gr ngn on. hg lvl o wn nrgy n
y n on gr ly, ongon ngn,
rnon ny n rnon qy.
in ny r o worl, nl gr o gr
nrrr wll rqr o llow or lvl o gr
ngron roo n ror. sgnn rovn
n v y nwork oon n or o
r, n nr n rnon y n
onron o nw rnon ln wll lo n. a
, q n r ror or gr
or wn owr n o vlo n ln, vn
n r wr gr y l.
howvr, xnon o wn owr no only rvr.
exnon n rnorn r n o oo
wvr owr gnron nology on o
rly growng lry n. t iea y
2030, ovr 1.8 rllon usd wll v o nv nrnon n ron nwork n Oecd lon.
in rn on wn owr vng n
rlon o onvnonl or, wo nrrr
n lrgly vlo nr nonl vrlly ngr
onool w wr l o nn gr nwork
rovn rog n lv on
lry ll. b wl or lrl rk
lo o o oon n o onr, nro
oron onn o vng rnwl gnror n
owr rk ro rnory onnon rg
o onl o r onn owr y nn
l.
wind poers contribution to
system adequacy
t y r o wn nrgy xr ow
onvnonl owr gnron y n vo or
rl y wn nrgy. or low wn nrgy nron
lvl, y r wll ror lo o
vrg wn owr roon, w n on
y or on nvl (norlly 20-35% o
r y). W nrng nron lvl o wn
owr, rlv y r wll r, w n
nw wn ln on y w g wn owr
nron wll rl l onvnonl owr n r ln n y.
aggrg wn ln ovr lrgr gogrl r r
o k ll vng o r onron o
wn owr n owr y.
grid connection issues
a gr o ovr ll rl nl rlng o
onnon o, n oron n o, onry
lry rnon y. ty ly own rl w
n wy n w gnrng on onnng o
y or n orr o nn gr ly.
tnl rqrn wn gr o vry ro y o
y, yl rqrn or gnror norlly
onrn olrn, onrol o v n rv owr,
rov v n owr qly. s rqrn
or wn owr gnron r ngng nron
nr n wn owr ng or n orowr ln l, .. ng v onrol n
lvrng gr or rv.
in ron o nrng n ro nwork
oror, or xl o y onn o y
rng l vn, o rn wn rn gn
v n nlly rov. t jory o mW-z
rn ng nll oy r l o ng
o vr gr o rqrn, w vn r
nlng l-r-rog ly. t nl o
n kng owr y l wn ron
o. mo w og ow og
w g ow oo.
i n t e G r a t i n G W i n d e n e r G y i n t O e l e c t r i c i t y G r i d s
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t coco oo o o llo, o o o co, o l c, o ol c o locl colo ll. m o colo locl l o, oo co o o oc lo, o c o l ol c .
6. Wind pOWer and the envirOnment
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eol b
Co2
EMiSSionS
W ow , o- ow go
oog. l w o o
g g o o o o
og o w oo .
oo, w g o o o o
- go g og o g
g oo, q g
o q oo o w. b o, o o, g o
jo o o o.
t io p o c cg (ipcc) 4
a ro (2007) o o
g o - g. i o
w o o wo oq, go
o o o 2020. t
o o w g o go o w
o o og- o
ow o.
t ow o o o o o 40% o go
cO2
o, w o o
ow o g o og gow
go ow . to g o o
o go o w ow
wo q g o 25 o o o o o
o 17 o o o o .
aog o o o, gow g o o 1,000 GW
o 2020, og o 2,600 tW o
. t wo 1,500 o o o
cO2
.
air poLLuTion
W ow o o o q o
w . t oo o o o o
g o og o, o o
o o oo. t g oo o
- g o, og w o
oog o g; o o o
.
i c, w o o 80% o
o o- ow o, oo o o
Wo h Ogo w o
650,000 c o .
W g o o o w
o oo o o . d o g,
o o g -o o
j o o oq o -
o og w o go
o go.
aog o c go o, oo 5,000
c . c
o g . n 12% o c og
o g o o o .
oThEr bEnEFiTS
t a b co g
oo o W vg, t,
k, vg g
o o , g o o o
o o g c W.
sog o o g us
gowg o o- o o g. t
og o w w g w,
o oo o ww , o w
w .
t eo uo- ee 1)
oo oq o o o o w
w o eu, o
w g o o o
o o oo g o
o, g, o . t
o o o o. t eu
o o g ow go o 1.1-3.0 /
W o o 3.5-7.7 /W,
o o j 0.05-0.25 /W o w.t
o o o og o o o
o wo o, o g 30%,
o w o o.
W i n d p O W e r a n d t h e e n v i r O n m e n t
1 http://www.externe.ino/externpr.pd
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eol ic
t oo oo o w , o
, o , o o
o o oog w. mo o
g oo w o o,
ViSuaL iMpaCT
W g .
t o o o g w
wo . how o ,
w g g o o ,
o .
i oo o o g o, ow,
, o g ow o o o og, w .
n, o o w w ow
w o
o, o o .
O o w w ow
og.
W o og
o o gog o. co o
o o o g g o o
g o. t
o o og og o ow
ow w o o
wo.
a o o w g oo
g o o-
o w , g . i
a, o , g o aw
o oo, oo oog,
g , o, o o. i
i, i W eg aoo o
g og w o oo
- WW, lg G.
s o oo ow o o wo
w o o
og g o. O
, o so, ow o o o o
w . i o wo g w
o . O o,
q o o oo.
aog w g oj o g
o , o o o . g o
o o . t
eo W eg aoo
o w q o o 20% o eo
wo o w q
o.
W i n d p O W e r a n d t h e e n v i r O n m e n t
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noiSE
co o o o , w
q. e og oo o
, w go o ow, o o
w o o oo g .
m g o 35 o 45 o 350
o , o o
go o o o.
t o o w
, o q go o
w , o o, o og oo
. mo g
o og o oog o
woog o o w o
.
p o , g w
o, o
. a w o w og
ow o o, o o
o oo.
to o w o
wo, o o o o o ,
w o . t w o
goo go o w .
birDS anD baTS
t o g og o
o o g. Go
g o go
, g o
.
aog o uk ro so o poo o
b, ,
o , g o o o
o o o - o o,
g o o b . co o
, gg o
oo w o o o g z o
, o 1).
aog o o w w o ,
o w ow o o
o o z. t g --
o u s, og o
us W s, (1 o
), g ( o 1 ), (100 o),
(60 o 80 ), w oo ow,
ow . b o w o w
o o o o
o oo- , o ow
w .
W i n d p O W e r a n d t h e e n v i r O n m e n t
Source: AWEA
DECIBEL CHART
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Pneumatic DrillSterero MusicOfficeWind TurbineWhisper
Falling Leaves Bedroom Home Inside Car Industrial Noise Jet Airplane
1 Royal Society or the Protection o Birds (2005): Wind arms and birds
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a o w us
ow gw o
g o o o . t
o o gg . a w , o
o . i eo, o o
1,000 w go o n, s, ow
o o w 0.1 o 0.6 oo
.
W o o , o ,
g ao p s o
t o s, o o o
o o w g o
ow og o wo.
a g , o w
, o o , g , o o g g
oo. po o o o w
o go o, w g fo o
g og , o
g o g go. t o
g. mo w , w ow g
, o o o.
b o o o w
o o o o g
g. p-oo w oo
o oo . t
o o .
Fol l
As a result o a single oil shipping accident - the Exxon Valdez
oil spill in Alaskas Prince William Sound - more than 500,000
migratory birds were killed, about a thousand times the
estimated annual total in Caliornias wind power plants. A
study at a coal-fred power plant in Florida, which had oursmokestacks, recorded an estimated 3,000 bird deaths in a
single evening during the autumn migration period.
sOurce: uniOn O cOncerned scient ists /
lOrida OrnithOlOGical sOciety
l , g ,
o oog o oo w o o o
. d g o o w
, u s, ow
w o o o g o oo. a w o oog o-
West o oo o g
g o o-,
g o
o o o o w . t
gg w o o
g oo w .
moog o w us o
o gg
. t a W eg aoo ow
jo o w b coo io, us
W s no rw eg
W i n d p O W e r a n d t h e e n v i r O n m e n t
Source: CanWEA
Number per 10,000 fatalities
CAUSES OF BIR D FATALITIES
710 Pesticides
850 Vehicles
50 Communication Towers
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loo o oo w oo o ow
. t o o g
goo g oo g go ,
g o o w w o
.
oFFShorE WinD
a o , oo w o o
o o o
w o. no go
oj o o q
q o o
o. t o
oj o w o eu w w
oo go og w
oo.
W o o ,
o. sq oog
o o g w
o w .
t oog go o o ,
o oo o
g o .
d o 17 ow oo
w , o, g o
wo g g o o
. a o o
oog og o ho r
(160 mW) n (165 mW) w wo
o, og w d eg ao
o n ag, o ,
g oo, g w o ow o ,
t oog ow o o
oo, o o w ,
o o g o o.
o o
oo o w oo,
g o go.
aog o oo qg o
n w , ow og o o
235,000 g o go,
oo w j 0.02%. r og
ow fo o gg o fw o o o o o 72 .
ConCLuSion
W g g go
oog, , o , o o-
. t w o o
o w g o o
o, , o og
, g o w
g o g o w g o .
W i n d p O W e r a n d t h e e n v i r O n m e n t
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7. the G lObal Wind enerGy Out lOOk
scenariOs
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the initiaL seCtiOns o o
o w g o o wo
g o o, w
go g go w o
o o o o o o. t Go
W eg Ooo o ow
o o w ow o 2020, oo
o ow 2050, g o g o o
w w f w g
o.
t o ooo w
Go W eg co (GWec), Gio G ao c (dlr).
pojo o o w g o
o o g o go g
w o 2050 o dlr o G
eo rw eg co (erec).
sco
rEFErEnCE SCEnario
t o o o gow o
w g o wo. t o o
rc o o ojo 2007
Wo eg Ooo o io eg ag
(iea). t o o o g o
, o og
g o, o o
o-o g o
og oo. t iea g o go o o
2030, o o, dlr oo o o gow o w
ow o 2050.
MoDEraTE SCEnario
t mo o o o o
o o w g
o g g o wo. i o
g o o w
o w g . moo,
o o o
o oo o o o
g goo, w o unccc
cOp-15 cog, d, d 2009.
u o 2012 g o o o
g o o. t
o w g ow
gow o wow o
o o o w o. a 2012
o o o o .
aDVanCED SCEnario
t o o o, ac o o w o gow
w g o. t o
o oo o o w g, og
o oo, ,
o w o o.
W g, o 2012 o o
, o g o ow w w
g o o w g o
o og g o
w o g go g.
EnErGY DEManD proJECTionS
t o o go w g
g wo ojo o gow o
, o r d pojo
o eg e d pojo.
rEFErEnCE DEManD proJECTion
t o o o wo go
ojo g o o iea 2007 Wo
eg Ooo, g o o oo
Gdp gow, o ow o 2050. i o
o o w o o
-2007, o o o o o
.
t iea o o w go-
o, wo g w o.
Go wo o o o o
15,000 tW 2005 o o 29,000 tW
2030.
t h e G l O b a l W i n d e n e r G y O u t l O O k s c e n a r i O s
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EnErGY EFFiCiEnCY DEManD proJECTion
t iea o o g g
g oo o o o o
g g o dlr eo
o 1). t o o-
o oo o g ,
o oog, gg
oog o
oo oo o g .
i , o o, o o o o
, o g g q o o o , w
g o o .
i o o f o, w o
o e efcc ojco o
, w o g o 80% o
o.
t o go g
r ojo o 23,937 tW
2030, w 18% ow. b 2050, 28% o go
o o 12,000 tW o
eg e ojo.
m ao
p
GroWTh raTES
m gow o o
o o g oo o o o w . a gow o
o 20% , g a
o o o, g o w
q. t w
g gow ,
ow. i o 2007, g
go
25%; o g o o 2000-2007, w o
27%, w w gow 2007,
w w 2008.
i o o o w gow
o g g o g o
o, o w ow g
40 g gow
w o g g o
gw.
TurbinE CapaCiTY
i w gowg
o
o w og ow. t
g o w go 2007
w 1.49 mW. a g o
ow 6 mW .
W o o g z
w g o o g o 2 mW 2013
o. i o g w o
o g , qg w o
.
i o w oo
o 20 , w w o .
t owg o o o
o o o.
CapaCiTY FaCTor
c o o g o
oo w
o o o . t -
o w o g , o
o o
o oo. o , 1 mW
og 25% o w 2,190 mW o o .
o g o o o 25%,
o o o w
oog g o w w
. c o o g , w
w og o o. t gowg z o
oo w , eo, w o
o o g.
t o oj g go o
w o 28% 2012 30% 2036.
t h e G l O b a l W i n d e n e r G y O u t l O O k s c e n a r i O s
1 www.energyblueprint.ino
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CapiTaL CoSTS anD proGrESS raTioS
t o o og w
o 20 g g
o o - w o w
go, g
q o, oo
oo oo o .
t g oo o g o
o o 20 % o
o o. a 20 % q o
og o o 0.80.
i o o o o o,
o o , .. o
gw . t g z
o o o o.
t og o 0.90
2015, g g o 2016 ow. bo
2031, w oo o o
o o go g o
, o 0.98.
t o o g o,
, g o o
g o oo,
o g o o. n
o o g oo z.
co o o, w ,
2006, o w w
. t gg o g w
og o
oo. e o w wo
( ow, go
oo), o ( go) o (
oo ow). Go o
o o ag 2008, w o
q . i o,
g g o o o -
g og w .
s og
o go g o g .
t og g oo
g w oo
og o w g , o c. so o oo
w 2010.
e o, o o w go
g o, og g
oo , oo
g o.
c o ow o
g o 1,300 2007, g o 1,450 2009. t
o o 2010 ow o o
1,150. o 2020 o g o o
o o 1,050. a g g 2007 .
t h e G l O b a l W i n d e n e r G y O u t l O O k s c e n a r i O s
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t h e G l O b a l W i n d e n e r G y O u t l O O k s c e n a r i O s
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2030
Reference Moderate Advanced[ MW ]
GLOBAL CUMMULATIVE NEW WIND CAPACITY
GLobaL CuMuLaTiVE CapaCiTY [MW] anD ELECTriCiTY GEnEraTion [TW]
Ye 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2030
refeece [mW] 93,864 109,739 128,046 139,000 232,956 352,300 496,730
[tW] 206 240 280 304 571 864 1,218
Mdete [mW] 93,864 117,735 143,376 172,280 378,954 709,332 1,420,436
[tW] 206 258 314 377 929 1,740 3,484
advced [mW] 93,864 119,837 149,841 186,309 485,834 1,080,886 2,375,374
[tW] 206 262 328 408 1,192 2,651 5,939
SuMMarY oF GLobaL WinD EnErGY ouTLooK SCEnario For 2020
Go
so
c
w ow (GW)
e
o (tW)
pg o wo
(eg e)
a
[GW]
a
( )
Jo [o] a cO
g(o o)
r 352 864 4.1% 24 32.14 0.54 518
mo 709 1,740 8.2% 82 89.39 1.30 1,044
a 1,081 2,651 12.6% 143 149.35 2.21 1,591
Jh
SuMMarY oF GLobaL WinD EnErGY ouTLooK SCEnario For 2050
Goso
cw ow
(GW)
eo (tW)
pg owo
(eg e)
a [GW]
a
( )
Jo [o] a cOg
(o o)
r 679 1,783 5.8% 36.6 47.10 0.74 1,070
mo 1,834 4,818 15.6% 100 104.36 1.71 2,891
a 3,498 9,088 29.5% 165 168.14 2.98 5,453
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t h e G l O b a l W i n d e n e r G y O u t l O O k s c e n a r i O s
sco rl
a o Go W eg Ooo o
ow g o oo o o go
w g . t o o o
oo o o gow o
w ow .
rEFErEnCE SCEnario
t rc co, w o i-
o eg ag Wo eg Ooo 2007, o
w gow o 27% o 2008, o10% 2010, o 4% 2030. b 2035,
gow 1%.
a , o o o
, go wo
139 Ggw (GW), og 304 tW ,
og 1.7% o wo .
b 2020, go wo 352 GW, gowg o
o 500 GW 2030, w o
o 30 GW. b 2050, o o 680 GW o w g-
o wo wo.
t o o w g go
og o w
ojo . ao 864 tW o 2020
wo o o 3.6-4.1% o wo
oo, g o o g o. b 2030, oo o 1,218 tW
o 4.2-5.1% o go . e 2050,
o o w wo o g 4.2-5.8%
go.
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0 [ % ]
2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
ELECTRICITY DEMAND PROJECTION:EN ER G Y EFFIC IEN CY
ELECTRICITY DEMAND PROJECTION:R EFER EN CE
Reference wind market growth
Moderate wind market growth
Advanced wind market growth
Reference wind market growth
Moderate wind market growth
Advanced wind market growth
WIND POWER PENETRATION OF WORLDS ELECTRICITY SUPPLY
3 DiFFErEnT WinD MarKET DEVELopMEnT SCEnarioS - WiTh DiFFErEnT WorLD ELECTriCiTY DEManD DEVELopMEnTS
2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
reerence Wind market GrOWth iea prOJectiOn
W ow o o wo % r (iea d pojo) % 1.4 1.7 3.6 4.2 4.4 4.2
W ow o o wo % eg e % 1.4 1.7 4.1 5.1 5.8 5.8
mOderate Wind market GrOWth
W ow o o wo % r % 1.4 2.1 7.3 11.9 12.5 11.2
W ow o o wo % eg e % 1.4 2.1 8.2 14.6 16.4 15.6
advanced Wind market GrOWth
W ow o o wo % r % 1.4 2.3 11.2 19.7 23.1 21.2
W ow o o wo % eg e % 1.4 2.3 12.6 24.0 30.3 29.5
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MoDEraTE SCEnario
u mo w g o gow
o g r
o. t gow
27% o 2008, o 19% 2010, o o
g o 11% 2020 3% 2030 1%
2040.
t o , go w
ow o 172 GW, w
o o 28.9 GW. b 2020,
wo gow o 81.5 GW, gow ow wo o o
700 GW. b 2030 o o o 1,420 GW wo
, w o go o 84 GW. b
2050, wo wo o w ow
o o 1,800 GW, w g o o
100 GW.
i o g , wo o
o 1,700 tW o w g 2020,
3,500 tW 2030 4,800 tW 2050. dg o
o, wo 7.3-8.2% o
go 2020, 11.9-14.6% 2030
11.2-15.6% 2050.
aDVanCED SCEnario
u ac w g o, o
o o go w ow -
g. t gow 27% 2008, o
22% 2010, o 12% 2020 5% 2030.
t, gow w o o 1% .
t o , go
wo 186 GW, w o o o
36.5 GW. b 2020, go wo o 1,000 GW,
w o o o 142 GW, 2030, o
w go wo o 2,400 GW. t
wo o 165 GW. b
2050, wo o f o w wo
o 3,500 GW.
i o g , wo o
2,600 tW o w g 2020, 5,700 tW
2030 o 9,000 tW 2050. ag g o
, w ow wo o
11.2 12.6% o go 2020, 19.7-
24.0% 2030 21.2-29.5% 2050.
rEGionaL brEaKDoWn
a o o w ow o ow go
o wo o go iea. o
o o , go eo,
to eoo, no a, l a,
c, i, p (g a, so ko
J), dog a ( o a), m e a.
t h e G l O b a l W i n d e n e r G y O u t l O O k s c e n a r i O s
rEGionaL brEaK DoWn: rEFErEnCE SCEnario [GW]
EuropeTransitionEconomies
NorthAmerica
LatinAmerica
Dev. Asia(excl. S. Korea)
India
China
Middle EastAfrica OECD Pacific (incl. South Korea)
3%
3%
1%1%
8%
6%
2%
1%
26%
2%
50%
46%
1%1%10%
5%
3%2%
27%
2%
202
0
2030
2 0 2 0
eo 176 GW
to eoo 7 GW
no a 92 GW
l a 5 GW
d. a (. s. ko) 7 GW
i 20 GWc 27 GW
m e 2 GW
a 4 GW
Oecd p (. so ko) 12 GW
2 0 3 0
eurOpe 227 GW
to eoo 11 GW
no a 132 GW
l a 8 GW
d. a (. s. ko) 16 GW
i 27 GW
c 49 GW
m e 4 GW
a 7 GW
Oecd p (. so ko) 16 GW
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t ow o wo go iea
ogog o Wo eg Ooo o. i
w o o oo w o
ojo iea o o o-
go g . a o o o
o go ow o . 48.
t o w ow o
go o wo 2020 2030 ow o . 48
49. t ow rc sco, eo
wo o o o wo . b 2030
eo wo o 46% o go w ow ,
oow no a w 27%. t g gowo c w 10%.
t wo o o o g og
gow go o eo. u mo
o, eo w o 23% 2030, w
no a og o 27% jo
o c (14%), i (10%) dog a
(10%). l a (7%) p go (5%) w
o o ,
oo o a m e w gg
(o 1% ).
t a o og gow o
c, w wo o wo
g o 19% 2030. t no a wo o o 22% o go w ow
t h e G l O b a l W i n d e n e r G y O u t l O O k s c e n a r i O s
rEGionaL brEaK DoWn: MoDEraTE SCEnario [GW]
Europe
TransitionEconomies
North AmericaLatin America
Dev. Asia(excl. S. Korea)
India
China
Middle East
Africa
OECD Pacific (incl. South Korea) 4%
5%
1%1%
14%
10%
6%
7% 31%
1%
25%
23%1%
1%
14%
10%
10%
7%
27%
2%
202
0
2030
2 0 2 0
eo 182 GW
to eoo 9 GW
no a 214 GW
l a 50 GW
d. a (. s. ko) 40 GW
i 69 GWc 101 GW
m e 8 GW
a 10 GW
Oecd p (. so ko) 30 GW
2 0 3 0
eurOpe 306 GW
to eoo 34 GW
no a 366 GW
l a 103 GW
d. a (. s. ko) 140 GW
i 142 GW
c 201 GW
m e 20 GW
a 21 GW
Oecd p (. so ko) 70 GW
rEGionaL brEaK DoWn: aDVanCED SCEnario [GW]
Europe
TransitionEconomies
Latin AmericaDev. Asia (excl. S. Korea)
India
China
Middle EastAfrica
OECD Pacific (incl. South Korea) 7%
9%
2%2%
18%
13%
6%9%
NorthAmerica
23%
1%
19%
15%2%
3%
19%
10%
9% 8%
22%
3%
202
0
2030
2 0 2 0
eo 213 GW
to eoo 10 GW
no a 243 GW
l a 100 GW
d. a (. s. ko) 61 GW
i 138 GWc 201 GW
m e 25 GW
a 17 GW
Oecd p (. so ko) 75 GW
2 0 3 0
eurOpe 353 GW
to eoo 75 GW
no a 520 GW
l a 201 GW
d. a (. s. ko) 211 GW
i 235 GW
c 451 GW
m e 63 GW
a 52 GW
Oecd p (. so ko) 215 G W
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t h e G l O b a l W i n d e n e r G y O u t l O O k s c e n a r i O s
Annual Installation [ GW ]Reference
Moderate
Advanced
Cost / kWReference
Moderate
Advanced
COSTS AND CAPACITIES
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
20082007 2009 2010 2015 2020 2030
inVESTMEnT anD EMpLoYMEnT
2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2030
reerence
a io [mW] 19,865 18,016 18,034 18,307 20,887 24,180 30,013
co / W 1,300 1,350 1,450 1,438 1,376 1,329 1,301
i o / 25,824,500 25,873,673 25,910,012 26,545,447 28,736,673 32,135,267 39,058,575
eo Jo- 329,232 387,368 418,625 424,648 479,888 535,074 634,114
mOderate
a io [mW] 19,865 23,871 25,641 28,904 54,023 81,546 84,465
co / W 1,300 1,350 1,450 1,392 1,170 1,096 1,050
i o / 25,824,500 32,225,716 37,179,828 40,220,810 63,182,874 89,390,391 88,658,740
eo Jo- 329,232 397,269 432,363 462,023 882,520 1,296,306 1,486,589
advanced
a io [mW] 19,865 25,509 30,005 36,468 84,160 142,674 165,000
co / W 1,300 1,350 1,450 1,379 1,112 1,047 1,026
i o / 25,824,500 34,437,535 43,506,723 50,304,975 93,546,253 149,352,592 169,297,423
eo Jo- 329,232 422,545 499,967 572,596 1,340,016 2,214,699 2,810,395
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, w eo wo o 15%,
oow i (10%), dog a (9%), p
go (9%) l a (8%). a m
e wo g o o o
(2% ).
i o g o
w o o o o
. t o 20 g o w
. t w o
o o o
og o. t
g ooo o o w o o ow . t w w
o o o o , g
o o. a
oo w o ow o g o
go .
Co b
Gg o o w ow
w q o o o
40 . a g oo o
w w o o go
o jo o.
inVESTMEnT
t o o o o w g
o o o. t
o o o, o ,
g g o ow o g o .
t o go q
w g g o
o . t o
o o g g o ow
o , o.
i r o o go -
w ow q o 25.8 o
2007 o 26.5 o 2010, o 39 2030
47 2050 [ g 2007 ].
i mo o o go -
w ow 40.2 o
2010, o 89.4 2030 104.4
2050.
i a o o go -
50.3 o 2010, o 149.4
2020 169.3 2030. a g
o o o owg o .
aog g g, o
o o o o go
ow . dg 1990, o , - ow o w g o 158-186 -
o .
GEnEraTion CoSTS
vo o o o w
g go o o w ow. t o
o o o o w (
o), o o ( ), w o-
o , o
g. O o o oo
(O&m) o o .
t o o g W o o
og g
O&m o o o w , g
oo. t o o
go g o o
o , w o 20 .
i o w g o
oo w o g o, w O&m o w o ow gg o
oo o o
.
tg o o o, o o gg
o w g g o o-
4-6 /W g w o
o 6-9 /W w ow g
w 1).
how, o 15 o w
og o q
g, g . o,
t h e G l O b a l W i n d e n e r G y O u t l O O k s c e n a r i O s
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o oo o w
o o w , o.
t o o o o o o-
o o oo. i g g
w g o w o-
o o o oo g
o o, g, o . t
o o o o, w o f
o o o o. O
oo o o ow oo
. t eo coo ee oj 2)
o o g ow go
o 1.1-3.0 /W o o
3.5-7.7 /W, o o j 0.05-0.25 /W
o w.
O o o , o o, o oo w go g go/
o o eo eo tg
s (ets).
o, o o o o o
o o oo oog. s w
g o o q , o
o w o gg
oog g, o o. a gg ooo
og o o w g w
o g g o g o
o o o o . i g o
o g o, o
oo.
i o, o o o o o o-
o ow oo o o o
o o oo. t o
o o w g. i 2007, o , 3.9
wo o o w o eo og o
w g, g o o 24
2030 3).
EMpLoYMEnT
t o o o o o
wg og o o . hg o-
o o o o o
o wo. a oog w
o o o o o o oo o, o
og o o-g o
g oo.
a o o o o w
ow o G, d, s
n. t o o
o gw o w ,
o w g w o o 15 jo
t h e G l O b a l W i n d e n e r G y O u t l O O k s c e n a r i O s
1 For Europe, see European Wind Energy Association (2009 - orthcoming): Wind Energy TheFacts; or China, see GWEC/CREIA/CWEA (2006): A study on the Pricing Policy o Wind Powerin China
2 http://www.externe.ino/externpr.pd3 EWEA (2008): Pure Power Wind Energy Scenarios up to 2030
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( ) og , oo , w
o, o o. a
oo o o, w ,
g o 11 jo 2030. i o, o g
oo wo w wo 0.33 jo o gw o
.
u o, o 329,000 o wo
o w g o 2007. u
r o, g wo o 408,500
jo o 535,000 2020. i
mo o, o 462,000 o wo
o o 2010, o 1.3 o
2020. t a o wo o
o 572,500 2010 o o 2.2 o jo
w g 2020.
Reference
Moderate
Advanced
Mio t CO
CUMULATIVE CO REDUCTION
2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0
500
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
ANNUAL CO REDUCTION
Reference
Moderate
Advanced
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2010 2030202520202015200920082007
Mio t CO
Co EMiSSionS
reerence
y acO o
[mo cO]
ccO o
[mo. cO]
2007 123 406
2008 144 550
2009 168 718
2010 183 901
2015 343 2,245
2020 518 4,459
2025 615 7,3332030 731 10,776
2035 799 14,632
2040 945 19,118
2045 1,006 24,021
2050 1,070 29,247
mOderate
y acO o
[mo cO]
ccO o
[mo. cO]
2007 123 406
2008 155 561
2009 188 749
2010 226 975
2015 558 3,048
2020 1,044 7,216
2025 1,624 14,1682030 2,090 23,752
2035 2,353 35,068
2040 2,674 48,163
2045 2,789 61,886
2050 2,891 76,141
advanced
y acO o
[mo cO]
ccO o
[mo. cO]
2007 123 406
2008 157 563
2009 197 760
2010 245 1,005
2015 715 3,513
2020 1,591 9,494
2025 2,397 19,616
2030 3,236 31,294
2035 4,263 54,709
2040 4,942 78,789
2045 5,178 104,197
2050 5,453 130,887
t h e G l O b a l W i n d e n e r G y O u t l O O k s c e n a r i O s
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Carbon DioxiDE SaVinGS
a o o o o g o
go o o o o
o w ow go. co o
g g o o g go
, g o o oq o go
g.
a , o w oog
goo g . t cO2
o o
, o g o g 20
o w
o o o oo.
t o o o o o o
o w o , o oo o ,
go o w ow w .co Wo eg co ow g o
o o o o o . O
o o g w o o
jo o go 20 w
o o g o o o o
o g o 600 o GW g
o o o o o o o
w go.
t o j o
50% o w go
2020 w Oecd go (no a,
eo p). t o o
g o o o g. i o go cO2
o w g o w o o
g ow o.
tg o o o,
g cO2
w g r o
wo 183 o o 2010, g o
518 o o 2020 731 o o 2030.
u o, cO2
g o w wo
gg, o w 18,708 o o o cO2
iea go ow o w
2030.
u mo o, w g wo 226
o o o cO2
2010, 1,044 o o o
cO2
2020, g o 2,090 o o 2030.
t g 2020 wo o o
7,216 o o o cO2
2003, o wo
o o o 2050, wo o o j o
76,000 o o o cO2.
u a o, cO2
g w
ow wo o 245 o o 2010,
1,591 o o 2020, 3,236 o o
2030. bw 2003 2020, o 9,494 o o o
cO2
wo w g o. t wo
o o 130,000 o o o wo
o o.
rc bco
ThE GErMan aEroSpaCE CEnTrE
t G ao c (dlr) g g-
g ogo G. aog
o o o ow o oog,
o o ow g ,
o go, o
o o g g ow
.
t i o t to dlr (dlr-itt)
o w g
oog o o ow o
g oo o. Wog o-oo
w o dlr , ,
t h e G l O b a l W i n d e n e r G y O u t l O O k s c e n a r i O s
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o o og o o g
oog o g oo. t o
o o , o o oo
oo o w g oo o
oo . s oog
o o o g o
o g o.
W dlr-itt, s a toog
a do og
o w g oog. i
o o-oo
o , g o oo g o oo o
o w oog, g o
o.
SCEnario baCKGrounD
dlr w oo eo rw eg
co G io o o o
lol l o 2050 4). t
, 2007 g ,
o g o w o g
ow . p o
o o w g o; og w
o w g o go
ojo o w ow o wo, o
o Go W eg Ooo o.
t l co o o, w
o o ojo
io eg ag, g
mesap/pn o o o dlr og 10 wo go (eg [r]oo: a
go g ooo), Oo 2008 o
G io eo rw
eg co (erec). t o o
ooo w eo o o o o
o o g .
EnErGY EFFiCiEnCY STuDY 5)
t o eo w o o ow g
o o o 2003 o 2050 o o
o iea go Wo eg
Ooo o . eg w o
. t o w w o
o w , o o o,
g oo .
t eo g o o o
o oo o g o,
o o w oog
, g oo oo
. t wow g
35% 2050 oo o
o. eg g q o
o. t o o g g oo o o o g g
o o o g g.
W eo o wo g
o, o o o o
o.
t h e G l O b a l W i n d e n e r G y O u t l O O k s c e n a r i O s
4 Krewitt W, Simon S, Graus W, Teske S, Zervos A, Schaeer O, The 2 degrees C scenario -A sustainable world energy perspective; Energy Policy, Vol.35, No.10, 4969-4980, 2007
5 www.energyblueprint.ino
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norTh aMEriCa
tOtal capacity in mW
2007 2010 2020 2030refeece sce 18,664 28,000 92,000 132,000
Mdete sce 18,664 41,195 214,371 366,136
advced sce 18,664 41,195 252,861 519,747
LaTin aMEriCa
tOtal capacity in mW
2007 2010 2020 2030
refeece sce 537 2,000 5,000 8,000
Mdete sce 537 2,496 50,179 103,140
advced sce 537 2,496 100,081 201,080
aFriCa
tOtal capacity in mW
2007 2010 2020 2030
refeece sce 454 1,000 4,000 7,000
Mdete sce 454 785 10,067 20,692
advced sce 454 887 17,606 52,032
EuropE
tOtal capacity in mW
2007 2010 2020 2030refeece sce 57,136 77,000 176,300 226,730
Mdete sce 57,136 89,227 182,464 306,491
advced sce 57,136 89,132 212,632 353,015
OeCd eo: a, bg, cz r, d, , ,G, G, hg, i, i, i, log, n,now, po, pog, so r, s, sw, swz, t,u kgo
OeCd no ac: c, mo, u s
OeCd pcfc: a, J, ko (so), nw Z
to ecoo: a, a, azj, b, bo-hzgo,bg, co, eo, s mogo, o r omo, Gog, kz, kgz, l, l, moo, ro,r, so, tj, t, u, uz, c 1), m 1)
i
O lo a: ag, bg, b, b, co,
c t, j, po, io, k, do por o ko, lo, mo, m, m, mogo, m, n,nw co, p, p nw G, p, so, sgo,sooo i, s l, t, v, v
L ac: ag b, ag, b, bo, bz,b, bo, bz, c, coo, co r, c, do, dor, eo, e so, G, G, Go, G,G, h, ho, J, mq, n a, ng,p, pg, p, s. k-n-ag, s l, s. v G, s, t togo, ug, vz
ac: ag, ago, b, bow, b o, b, coo, cv, c a r, c, cooo, cogo, do r ocogo, co io, djo, eg, eqo G, e, eo, Go,G, G, G, G-b, k, loo, l, l, mg,mw, m, m, m, mooo, mozq, n, ng,ng, ro, rw, so to p, sg, s, s lo,so, so a, s, swz, u r o tz, togo, t,ug, Z, Zw
ml e: b, i, iq, i, Jo, kw, lo, O, Q, sa, s, u a e, y
C: po r o c g hog kog
DEFiniTionS oF rEGionS in aCCorDanCE WiTh iEa CLaSSiFiCaTion
1 Cyprus and Malta are allocated to the Transition Economies or statistical reasons
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MiDDLE EaST
tOtal capacity in mW
2007 2010 2020 2030
refeece sce 84 1,000 2,000 4,000
Mdete sce 84 577 8,150 20,136
advced sce 84 413 25,398 62,777
inDia
tOtal capacity in m W
2007 2010 2020 2030
refeece sce 7,845 12,000 20,000 27,000
Mdete sce 7,845 19,683 69,203 142,245
advced sce 7,845 20,571 137,636 235,075
TranSiTion EConoMiES
tOtal capacity in mW
2007 2010 2020 2030refeece sce 204 2,000 7,000 11,000
Mdete sce 204 449 9,183 33,548
advced sce 204 449 10,411 75,231
China
tOtal capacity in m W
2007 2010 2020 2030
refeece sce 5,906 9,000 27,000 49,000
Mdete sce 5,906 17,507 100,724 200,531
advced sce 5,906 19,613 200,880 450,582
DEVELopinG aSia
tOtal capacity in m W
2007 2010 2020 2030
refeece sce 312 2,000 7,000 16,000
Mdete sce 312 1,670 40,274 140,897
advced sce 312 1,817 60,735 210,808
oECD paCiFiC
tOtal capacity in m W
2007 2010 2020 2030
refeece sce 2,887 5,000 12,000 16,000
Mdete sce 2,887 3,688 30,018 70,698
advced sce 2,887 3,739 75,380 215,362
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t koo poocol
t koo pooo w g d o 1997
pooo o u no wo coo o
c cg o 1992(unccc). t koo pooo
g g g o o (a 1
o) o o o go g
ggg o 5.2% g 1990 o
o 2008-2012. t o ow
o o. t pooo o o
2005, o .
i ogo o z o g o o o o go
g o, o og o o
oo o o o o-
oj, c, i o og o
o o q, g o o o-
. how, w g
oo o o o.
t o oj o o g o
o o go g oo
o wo go
oog w .
no o o ogo koo
pooo g o 8% o eo uo o 7% o
u s, 6% o J, 0% o r
o 8% o a 10% o i. t
g o o g.
a o m 2008, 182 ooo. O
, 38 z o ( eu
ow g) q o o o o o . 145 og
o ooo, g bz, c
i, o o ogo. t u
s o z o o o
pooo, kz o o go o
o g o , og kz
go g o o .
FLExibLE MEChaniSMS
s go g w- ogo
o, , o o where
o , o go o
o. a koo pooo og
o, ogg o o--
o a i o o o o,
o og wo o o o w
g o o o- o.
i o o o
w w oo
w o . t Jo io (Ji),
c do m (cdm) eo
tg.
eo t
u io eo tg oo, a io o ag ao u
(aau) og . t o o o
o o o o g. t
o g o -
o o o.
to o ow ow
o o ow o
o a i . i w
a i p wo w o aau,
q o , o-
o.
Jo ilo
u Jo io, a i o
o o oj o a i o
o g o o. t ow
o o o o o- w,
o o o ow ow
o o g. mo Ji oj o
o- oo o o oo, r u. mo o
o o oo jo eu o
o o og o, o o
eu eo tg s.
t o Ji o o o o
o o eo ro u (eru), w o eru
g o o o o o cO2
q. t
eru o o o o o oo o g
o , w o o o
o og a i .
p O l i c y m e a s u r e s t O c O m b a t c l i m a t e c h a n G e
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eru w o w o Jo io oj
o o o ...o o
wo ow o ( o- o-
q), w oj o
wo o w
o eru . moo, a i o o
jo o o g o
o o o.
how, o w o
, g g .
Cl dlo mc
t c do m ow a i o
g o o o o
oj og (o-a i) o. i
g, og o w o o
oog o o o oo
. t o cdmoj ow o o (cer).
t oj o q o o-
.
a w o oj
cdm, g o og w g, g
, wg, g g,
g o o w, oo o
o oog o o
g, g hc n2O.
c o o cdm . i 2007
o o o 62%.
how, cdm oj g 45 o
unccc o o ow g
o fow o o o wo, o o o i
bz, o o a, e eo c a.
i 2007, cdm o o o wo
12 o 1) , o o eu,
eo go J .
t g o cdm oj o g
o 1-2 o o cdm
w o 4,000 oj o Oo
2008. mo 400 oj cer o ,
o wo o o cer o o g
oj. rw g oj ow o
o, goo cdm o o
z o g oo ow o. t
o q -g o o o oj wo
o wo o cer.
p O l i c y m e a s u r e s t O c O m b a t c l i m a t e c h a n G e
1 Co 2008 po-koo o, po Co al ro, mc 2008
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Carbon aS a CoMMoDiTY
t koo pooo o o g g
o o gow
o o o o pooo
2005. W o, o
o o o og o
o o o o
Wo b, og gow
wo , g o 40 o 2007. t
o o o o o 1.6 mcO2
2006 o 2.7 m 2007 2).
W o o o
w o oj -
, o o eu eo
tg s (ets) cdm.
t eu o g o o g
o , w o o 1.6 mcO2
o 28 o 2007 3) . t w og o
o o o o o . t
eu ets ow o o 60% o go
o 70% o . t cdm
o 947 m wo 12
2007, g 35% o 29% o
. t Ji , w , o
o o 2007, og o o
38 mcO2
o g o 326 o.
how, o o
gow g. m po co o
56% gow 2008 ( Figure 1), g
o o o 4 o o o o, w o
o 60 o. c ets o o
25/o, cdm g w 9 17/o,
g o o oj g o o-
.
pog o o g og, o
ow oo o g , og
ooo w o, o
g oo o wo-w. i o, , o o o o o
f goo o oo-w
o a b o. t , ow, o
o, o o o
, w eu ets, w cdm Ji
j gg . i o o w o c,
J a w o g
o o; o o, og
oo g o o w
o u s wo g ,
w o o o , o o
o o. Go gog
o-2012 g o o g
o g cdm,
o go o .
Figure 2 ow o o o o
o o 2020, o po
co o 2007.
p O l i c y m e a s u r e s t O c O m b a t c l i m a t e c h a n G e
2,3 Co 2008 po-koo o
Annual volume[ Gt ]
Other
JI
CDM total
EU ETS total
FIGURE 1 : ANNUAL CONTRACT VOLUMES 20052008
0
104%
64%
56%
1
2
3
4
5
2005 2006 2007 2008(forecast)
Source: Point Carbon
45
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40 Price in (average =38)
Price in (average =38)
0-10 01-20 20-30 30-50 50-100 above 100
Source: Point Carbon
Currency of choice. N=2591 (2157 responses in EUR; 967 in USD)
FIGURE 2: WHAT WILL BE THE COST OF CARBON IN 2020?
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w Cdm ojc
t c do m o o
o o w g go. a o Oo 2008,
o o 538 w g oj w cdm ,
og o 20,434 mW. t
14% o o o oj o o
. ao 7 o cer o
w oj, w go o o o
213 o o o o
2012 o oj .
t jo o oj o c i.i c, 90% o w g oj o cdm
go, ow 254 oj cdm
, g o 13 GW o . i
231 oj , og o 4 GW.
t o o w cdm-o w
oj f o ,
o oo o o o
w ow og wo, o
. i o o i c o
o og w g o o
o o o o ow
o.
t g o o o jo o
jo o o o w ow oj
cdm o . how,
o o w go -o o o o g
o w w o o
- o o o g o o w
ow oo o . t -
o oo-w o
o o.
p O l i c y m e a s u r e s t O c O m b a t c l i m a t e c h a n G e
WinD CDM proJECTS (aS oF 1 oCTobEr 2008)
Cty pjects MW
i 231 4,319
c 254 13,072
mo 11 1,222
so ko 11 320
bz 7 436
do r 3 173
p 2 73
mooo 2 70
c 3 188
eg 2 200
p 1 81mogo 1 50
J 1 21
co r 2 69
coo 1 20
i 0 0
ag 1 11
c 1 19
ng 2 60
v 1 30
eo 1 2
Ttl 538 20,434
Source: http://www.cdmpipeline.org/cdm-projects-type.htm
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w Ji ojc
t 12 w g oj Ji ,
og o 684 mW. t gg o
(300 mW) o u. O oj
bg, po, l eo. W Ji
o, o o
g o r u o
o g w g o.
t o o-2012
ngoo ow g w o go-
g o o o o koo pooo
2012. t og oo o
o a ro o igo p o
c cg, w ow g
og o og.
i o, o ,
o o b go o Wo b c
eoo s no s, gg o
oo o o o w g
o g owg o o
go o go g o.
d o o w
o g go oo, 11 co
o p (cOp 11) d 2005 g o g
o o ow ow o o o,
w gg o o o
g coo o o o
wo g o o ogo. t usgo o ,
o o . t jo
ow gg o w
o goo.
i d 2007, cOp 13 b, g
o g goo o o
o cOp 15, o
d 2009 cog. o w o,
oo o goo o o
o: go o o o g,
g ogog o o, oog
g wo o
.
Theneedforstrongcommitments
rgoo, g-g o o g o
o w o oo g go o
o g wo o og ow
g . t g o g
o o g koo pooo
o - o o 25-40% ow 1990
2020 - goo g o. t wo o
o o o g, ow, o
w eo uo o oj o
g go o 2c
o - .
Carbonprices
i o o g oo go, og
o o g o o
o o gg o . t g
o o o o w o ow
g go o , w o o
q o o o
o. W eu ets c do-
m wo jo g o
, gowg oo, o o go
o g o o. ag
oj g o
, oj,
go g g
g go oo o g
o 2050, o o
o .
p O l i c y m e a s u r e s t O c O m b a t c l i m a t e c h a n G e
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Technologytransfer
O o g o o unccc
w w g 1992 w o
o o o o o
o - oog o og
o. o o o oo o
o .
aog o o - oog
o w , o
o w go o
g oj o g. i
w , o o o
un o j g .
Expandedcarbonmarkets
i o oj o go, o
, o o . oo, u s jo
go o , w w g g
go o us w o
wo jo o go .
so, o a b o
o o o w
jo Oecd o wo oo gow
o o Oecd o eu g o
. t, oo o
o og o o cdm
o 2012,
Asectoralapproachforthepowersector
to o o-g
oog o ow go o, GWec
o og oo o o e
so eo ro m. t
o oo o g
o o o
o o g o, qg
o o o o
g o o g o
o. ro o ow wo
g o o o
o , og wo o
o w o g g.
t g o o oj-
cdm wo g o. a w og o g
o o oo o g
o o g o, wo z
g w o o g
oog wo g o go og o
o o oj--oj . i wo o goo
g o w o o o-a i
o o o oo w
g o o w.
p O l i c y m e a s u r e s t O c O m b a t c l i m a t e c h a n G e
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annex
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a n n E x
reerence
Ye
cO2
o[
mo cO2] Jo pog o [%] c [/mW] i []
Wo tW - r
Wo tW - e
2007 406 329,232 90 1,300 25,824,500
2008 550 397,269 90 1,350 25,873,673
2009 718 431,290 90 1,450 25,910,012
2010 901 417,923 90 1,438 26,545,447 17,890 17,686
2015 2,245 479,887 92 1,376 28,736,673
2020 4,459 535,074 92 1,329 32,135,267 23,697 21,095
2025 7,333 522,711 94 1,315 31,960,752
2030 10,776 634,114 94 1,301 39,058,575 29,254 23,937
2035 14,632 611,062 96 1,297 39,113,402
2040 19,118 713,769 96 1,292 46,748,706 35,698 27,166
2045 24,021 728,531 98 1,290 46,924,011
2050 29,247 744,123 98 1,288 47,099,974 42,938 30,814
mOderate
Ye
cO2
o[
mo cO2] Jo pog o [%] c [/mW] i [t]
Wo tW - r
Wo tW - e
2007 406 329,232 90 1,300 25,824,500
2008 561 397,269 90 1,350 32,225,716
2009 749 432,363 90 1,450 37,179,828
2010 975 462,023 90 1,392 40,220,810 17,890 17,686
2015 3,048 882,520 90 1,170 63,182,874
2020 7,216 1,296,306 92 1,096 89,390,391 23,697 21,095
2025 14,168 1,466,869 94 1,066 97,666,627
2030 23,752 1,486,589 94 1,050 88,658,740 29,254 23,937
2035 35,068 1,418,326 96 1,045 84,125,291
2040 48,163 1,637,816 96 1,042 101,659,168 35,698 27,166
2045 61,886 1,693,206 98 1,041 104,522,858
2050 76,141 1,713,391 98 1,041 104,365,717 42,938 30,814
advanced
Ye
cO2
o[
mo cO2] Jo pog o [%] c [/mW] i [t]
Wo tW - r
Wo tW - e
2007 406 329,232 90% 1,300 25,824,500
2008 563 422,545 90% 1,350 34,437,535
2009 760 499,967 90% 1,450 43,506,723
2010 1,005 572,596 90% 1,379 50,304,975 17,890 17,686
2015 3,513 1,340,016 90% 1,112 93,546,2532020 9,494 2,214,699 94% 1,047 149,352,592 23,697 21,095
2025 19,616 2,428,006 94% 1,036 158,727,421
2030 31,294 2,771,000 98% 1,026 169,297,423 29,254 23,937
2035 54,709 2,800,931 98% 1,022 168,705,910
2040 78,789 2,868,319 98% 1,021 168,481,382 35,698 27,166
2045 104,197 2,919,146 98% 1,020 168,321,894
2050 130,887 2,979,981 98% 1,019 168,140,446 42,938 30,814
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abouT GWEC
GLobaL rEprESEnTaTion For ThE WinD EnErGY SECTor
GWec o o go w g o. GWec gog jo o, go o oo
g w ow o, g o
w g o o. W o
o o 1,500 ogo o w
, oj o, ow go,
o, w , oo,
GWec oo w g
o.
ThE MEMbErS oF GWEC rEprESEnT:
Over1,500companies,organisationsandinstitutions
o 70 o
Alltheworldsmajorwindturbinemanufacturers
99%oftheworldsmorethan100,000MW
o w ow
GLobaL WinD EnErGY CounCiL (GWEC)
rl e ho
63-65 r ao
1040 b
bg
t: 32 2 100 4029
: 32 2 546 1944
www.gw.
o@gw.
G go ogo o-o
o o o o o o
o. G o-o ogo,
40 o o eo, a, a p. i
o 2.8 o o wow,
o o o o . to ,
G o o oo o go o
ooo o oo o o
oo g.
G gg g o g-
o 1971 w o o o jo
o a, o o a, w us Go
w og go . t o o g
w o-o o o,
o o g wo.
GrEEnpEaCE inTErnaTionaL
Oo hg 5
1066 aZ a
t n
t: 31 20 7182000
: 31 20 5148151
www.g.og
.@.g.og
sco GWec, G io, dlr eo
t ag p, s sw, s t,
c a
d G & io, hg
poo co o bWe; e; eo; eWea; G;
G; ivpc; JWea; l W; now rw l;
pj; s W eg;v c eo; vo c;
vo Q W; W.
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