global summary northern hemisphere extra-tropics: jet stream and tropopause dynamics

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Seasonal Climate – Summer 2010. Global summary Northern hemisphere extra-tropics:  jet stream and tropopause dynamics  Russian heatwave, Pakistan floods Attribution studies. Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion, 26 November 2010. Beijing Climate Center bcc.cma.gov.cn/en. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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• Global summary

• Northern hemisphere extra-tropics:

jet stream and tropopause dynamics

Russian heatwave, Pakistan floods

• Attribution studies

Seasonal Climate – Summer 2010

Mike Blackburn

Seasonal Climate Discussion, 26 November 2010

Beijing Climate Center bcc.cma.gov.cn/en

Winter El Niño to Summer La Niña

NOAA ESRL

2m Temperature, anomaly JJA 2010

NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

Tropical Convection

CPC / NCEP & Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

Equatorial OLR anomaly 5N–5SOLR anomaly JJA 2010

Global Circulation – JJAWinds, 200hPaStreamfunction, sigma=0.210

Streamfunction, sigma=0.850 Winds, 850hPa

Global Circulation – JJA streamfunctionanomaly, sigma=0.210Streamfunction, sigma=0.210

Streamfunction, sigma=0.850 anomaly, sigma=0.850

Temperature anomalies

NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

UK mean temperature (anomaly)

April May June

July Aug Sept

UK precipitation (% normal)

April May June

July Aug Sept

July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly)

ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)

25 June – 02 July

July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly)

ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)

02 – 09 July

July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly)

ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)

09 – 16 July

July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly)

ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)

16 – 23 July

July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly)

ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)

23 – 30 July

July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly)

ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)

30 July – 11 August

July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly)

ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)

11 – 20 August

Dynamical tropopause evolution

23-30 July 30 July – 11 Aug

ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)

250hPa winds, 24-30 July

Climatology

NOAA ESRL

250hPa winds, 24-30 July

2010

NOAA ESRL

NOAA attribution studies

• Aim to attribute extreme anomalies

variability (regression / historical analogues)

climate warming?

• Martin Hoerling: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/

NOAA attribution studies

Summary

• Persistent waves on northern jet stream

• (blocking) anticyclone) over western Russia

strong upstream & downstream troughs

jet entrance forcing of ascent over Pakistan?

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