global platform for disaster risk reduction operational climate services for managing socio-...

GLOBAL PLATFORMFOR Disaster Risk Reduction

Operational Climate services for managing Socio-Economic Risks Linked to the Changing

Climate

The role of meteorological services inadressing the public health impacts

of climate change

Lucien MangaProgram Manager for Public Heath and Environnement

WHO Regional Office for Africa

CLIMATE CHANGE: Africa projectionsscenario

+4ºC+2 ºC -20% +20%

TemperatureRainfall

Source:IPCC AR4 WG1 ch 11

Relationships between weather and disease patterns in Kenya

Area Start Cessation Wet period

Probable health impacts

Nyanza/Western Late Sept 2009

Jan/Feb2010 4-5 months

Severe Flooding – sanitation problems, clean water, diarrhoeal diseases ( peak period -immediate)

N/Eastern, Eastern Early October 2009

End of December 2009

3 months Moderate Flooding – sanitation in Wajir town, vector borne diseases (Malaria ,RVF, haemorrhagic fevers) peak transmission Mid NOV/early DEC 2009Malaria and RVF epidemics likely

Rift valley Early Nov 2009

N. Rift – end of Dec 2009

2 months Vector breeding sites– vector borne diseases (malaria) peak transmission end Dec 2009 to - Jan 2010

S Rift - Jan/Feb 3-4 months

Mild flooding - vector borne diseases (Malaria RVF) peak transmission end Dec 2009 to - Jan 2010 Malaria epidemics and focalised RVF likely

Coast Early October 2009

End of December 2009

3 months Moderate Flooding – vector borne diseases peak transmission Mid NOV/early DEC 2009 Localised increase in malaria and filarial transmission especially south coast

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Meteorological services in the African public health climate change framework

• African ministers of health and environment Joint Statement on Climate Change and Health.

• Essential Public Health Package to enhance climate change resilience in developing countries.

• Africa moving towards an integrated environment and health surveillance system to predict and prevent public health impacts of climate change.

• Meteorological services and data are a central component in:– the integrated environment and health surveillance

system;– Current health vulnerability assessments– Development of early warning and response systems

• Meteorological forecast for early warning systems is a MUST in Preparedeness, Readiness and Response.