global climate change alliance support facility€¦ · model- and scenario-driven stakeholder...

Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility

Module 5

Raising awareness

and building partnershipsand building partnerships

Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change

Tools supporting awareness raisingand partnership building

Assessingevidence

Vulnerability andadaptation

assessments

Engaging keyactors

Awarenessraising &

partnership

assessments

Macro and mesoeconomicanalysis

Demonstration orpilot projects

Communication& advocacy

strategy

Nationalconsensus on

and commitmentto climate-

resilient and low-emission

development

partnershipbuilding

Adapted from: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

Vulnerability and adaptationassessment

• A vulnerability and adaptation assessmentwould typically focus on 3 units of analysis:

– Places: land, water, ecosystems, ‘natural capital’ and‘built infrastructure’

– People: individuals, communities, ‘human capital’,livelihoods

– Institutions: sectors, organisations, how they relate toeach other, ‘social capital’

• It should assess both current & future vulnerabilityto determine possible adaptation measures

Source: Downing & Patwardhan (2004)3

Steps in community vulnerability &adaptation assessment

Source: IPCC (2007c)4th Assessment Report,

WG II - Fig. 16.3

Caribbean region: Vulnerability &capacity assessments (1)

Caribbean region: Vulnerability &capacity assessments (2)

• Implemented in most Caribbean countries(including some OCTs)

• Key features of methodology:

– Define scope of VCA

– Assess past, current and projected climate conditions– Assess past, current and projected climate conditions

– Assess socio-economic trends and conditioning factors

– Assess social capitals and vulnerability

– Develop integrated vulnerability indicators

– Develop national and community-level risk profiles

– Identify entry points for mainstreaming in decision making

– Evaluate scenarios in the context of mainstreaming

6Source: Pulwarty & Hutchinson (2008)

Cayman Islands: Vulnerability &capacity assessment – Tourism (1)

• Contents:

– Country characteristics

– National climate assessment

– Tourism sector assessment– Tourism sector assessment

– Present day vulnerability

– Sea-level rise static maps

– Gap analysis (aspects to address in future assessments)

– Adaptation and mitigation options

– Conclusions and recommendations

7Source: Hurlston-McKenzie et al (2011)

Cayman Islands: Vulnerability &capacity assessment – Tourism (2)

• Key conclusions & recommendations:

– Tourism sector very much exposed, in particular tocoastal flooding and storm/hurricane damage

– Insurance currently the main coping mechanism, butgetting prohibitively expensivegetting prohibitively expensive

– Need to climate-proof existing infrastructure and improvethe design and siting of new tourism facilities

– Plan for a 1-metre sea level rise, develop hazard maps,identify risk-prone areas to inform new planning

– Implement new design and construction regulations

– Establish a Climate Change Trust Fund to financeadaptation and mitigation projects

Mapping vulnerability

Elevation map of central Apia

Elevation

Exhibit 3 – Highly granular geographic information has been used tosegment assets according to their elevation above sea level

Approach

• Starting point was adigital map ofSamoa with contourlines (2m lines incoastal areas)

• In a second step, a

Source: Economics of Climate Adaptation (2009) Test case on Samoa – Focus onrisks caused by sea level rise, Fig. 03, p. 122

SOURCE: Team analysis

Building

2 m• In a second step, a

more granularsegmentation ofcoastal areas wasobtained by usingstate-of-the-art GISsoftware

• Finally, geo-coordinates ofbuildings and roads,were used todetermine the assetexposure to coastalflooding risk

Macro- and meso-economicanalysis

• Economic analysis may be a powerful tool formotivating policy makers to take action

– Macro level: analysis of the impact climate change mayhave on the national economy

– Meso level: analysis at the level of key sectors or sub-sectors of the national economy

• The costs of inaction (climate-related losses) arecompared with the net benefits of taking action (avoidedlosses minus costs)

• The analysis should also consider the distribution oflosses and benefits (among social groups, regions...)

Economic losses fromextreme climate events (1)

• Cook Islands, 2000 – Exceptional droughtand high temperatures

– Reduced oxygen level in lagoons

– Massive mortality among pearl-producing oysters– Massive mortality among pearl-producing oysters

– Economic loss 22 million EUR

• Martinique & Guadeloupe, 2007 – HurricaneDean:

– Complete destruction of banana plantations

– Economic loss 115 million EUR

11Source: Petit & Prudent (2008)

Economic losses fromextreme climate events (2)

• Cayman Islands, 2004 – Hurricane Ivan:

– Economic losses 2,800 million KYD (approx. 3,300 millionUSD)

– Equivalent to 183% of the 2003 GDP

• Jamaica, 2004 – Hurricane Ivan:

– Economic losses 500 million USD, primarily in theagriculture and tourism industries

12Sources: Hurlston-McKenzie et al (2011), MACC Project (2005)

British Virgin Islands – Economicvalue of mangroves

• Mangroves under threat from tourism andinfrastructure development – and also from risingsea level and increased frequency of tropical storms

• Protecting and restoring mangroves supports• Protecting and restoring mangroves supportsimportant ecosystems and coastal protection

• Total economic value calculation shows annualeconomic benefits of US$ 200,000–900,000/ha

• Costs of restoring mangroves range fromUS$ 225/ha to US$ 216,000/ha

13Sources: Petit & Prudent (2008)

Belize – Expected CC impact onsome crops

Source:CCRIF (2010)

Figure 10,p. 22

Demonstration projects

Demonstration/

Test whatworks and

does not work(relevance,

effectiveness)

Supportlesson

drawing foradaptive

managementMobilise

communities,local/regional

authorities & otherDemonstration/pilot projects

authorities & otherstakeholders

Help fosterinterest andcommitmentof national

authorities &other

stakeholders

Create motivationand knowledgefor replication/

scaling-up

15Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

Raising awareness and buildingpartnerships (1)

• Assessing available evidence:

– using the findings of relevant studies anddemonstration/pilot projects

• Engaging key actors:

– identifying and mobilising key organisations involved in

Who might be goodchampions?

Are there alreadychampions?

– identifying and mobilising key organisations involved indevelopment at the national and sector levels

– identifying and mobilising ‘champions’

Raising awareness and buildingpartnerships (2)

• Developing and implementing a communicationand advocacy strategy in support of mainstreaming:

– Define the target audience to be informed or influenced

– Develop policy-relevant messages and materials based on– Develop policy-relevant messages and materials based onevidence collected (e.g. policy briefs, radio programmes)

– Select and use appropriate communication channels forthe various target groups (e.g. media, sector workinggroups)

British Virgin Islands: theClimate Change Green Paper

• Objectives in producing the Green Paper:

– Help the general public and policy makers learn moreabout the emerging issue of CC and its projected impacts

– Prepare the ground for a climate change adaptation policyand strategyand strategy

• Contents:

– Virgin Islands context

– Projected and existing changes in climate

– Potential and existing CC impacts (+ prioritisation)

– Institutional, legal and management arrangements

– Towards an adaptation strategy: options, funding

18Source: Burnett Penn (2010)

Caribbean (regional): CC Handbookfor Caribbean Journalists

References (1)

• Burnett Penn A. (2010) The Virgin Islands Climate Change Green Paper. Prepared by theConservation and Fisheries Department, Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour. CaribbeanCommunity Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize, and Government of the Virgin Islands.Available from: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/projects/enhancing-capacity-for-adaptation-to-climate-change-ecacc-in-the-uk-caribbean-overseas-territories-project.html

• CCRIF (2010) Enhancing the climate risk and adaptation fact base in the Caribbean: Aninformational brochure highlighting the preliminary results of the ECA Study. CCRIF’s Economics ofAdaptation (ECA) Initiative. Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, Grand Cayman,Adaptation (ECA) Initiative. Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, Grand Cayman,Cayman Islands. Available from:http://www.ccrif.org/sites/default/files/publications/ECABrochureFinalAugust182010.pdf

• Downing T. & Patwardhan A. (2004) Assessing Vulnerability for Climate Adaptation. In: Lim B. &Spanger-Siegfried E. (eds.) (2004) Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: DevelopingStrategies, Policies and Measures. United Nations Development Programme/Cambridge UniversityPress, New York. Available from: http://www.undp.org/climatechange/adapt/apf.html

• Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group (2009) Shaping climate-resilient development: aframework for decision-making. Climate Works Foundation, Global Environment Facility, EuropeanCommission, McKinsey & Company, The Rockfeller Foundation, Standard Chartered Bank & SwissRe. Available from:http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/Social_Sector/our_practices/Economic_Development/Knowledge_Highlights/Economics_of_climate_adaptation.aspx

References (2)

• Hurlston-McKenzie L-A., Olynik J., Montoya Correa J. & Grant L. (2011) Vulnerability and CapacityAssessment of the Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise Impacts on the Cayman Islands’ TourismSector. Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize. Available from:http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/projects/enhancing-capacity-for-adaptation-to-climate-change-ecacc-in-the-uk-caribbean-overseas-territories-project.html

• IPCC (2007c) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working• IPCC (2007c) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of WorkingGroup II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Parry M.L., Canziani O.F., Palutikof J.P., van der Linden P.J. & Hanson C.E. (eds.)]. CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

• MACC Project (2005) Climate Change Handbook for Caribbean Journalists. MainstreamingAdaptation to Climate Change (MACC) Project, Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre(CCCCC), Belmopan, Belize. Available from: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/macc/macc.html

• Petit J. & Prudent G. (eds) (2008, reprint 2010) Climate Change and Biodiversity in the EuropeanUnion Overseas Entities. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Brussels, Belgium. Available from:http://data.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/2010-064.pdf

References (3)

• Pulwarty R. & Hutchinson N. (2008) Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment Methodology: Aguidance manual for the conduct and mainstreaming of climate change vulnerability and capacityassessments in the Caribbean Region. Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan,Belize. Available from: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/macc/macc.html

• UNDP-UNEP (2011) Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Development Planning: AGuide for Practitioners. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative. Available from:Guide for Practitioners. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative. Available from:http://www.unpei.org/knowledge-resources/publications.html

Module 6

Mainstreaming climate change in

national, sector and sub-national

policies, strategies and programmespolicies, strategies and programmes

Why mainstream climate change at the national,

sector and sub-national levels?

Why mainstream climate changeat strategic planning levels?

National level

Sector 1 BiophysicalimpactsSector

coordinationMore:-integrated

Sector 2

Sector 3

Socio-economicimpacts

Allocation ofresources

across sectors

-integrated-effective-efficient-sustainableresponses

Why mainstream climate change atlower levels of governance?

Sub-national

Best levels forobserving /

understandingdevelopmentand climate

change impacts

Vulnerabilityand adaptivecapacity are

context-specific

Sub-nationaland local levels

Most adaptationoptions require

localimplementation

Potential forpiloting /

pioneeringinitiatives

4Source: OECD (2009a)

Key stakeholders and cross-level interactionsKey stakeholders and cross-level interactions

Key stakeholders

Members ofParliament

Ministries ofFinance,Planning,

Development

Ministries withsector-specificcompetences

Sectormanagement

agenciesRegional

organisations Parliament agencies

Civil societyorganisations

PrivatesectorResearch

organisations

Sub-national /local governments

Localprivatesector

Local citizens& organisations

organisations

Top-down and bottom-upapproaches to adaptation

National levelincl. sectors

Model- andscenario-driven

Stakeholderapproach

Focused on

Nationalpolicies &strategies

Subnationallevels (local in

particular)To

driven

Focused onphysicalimpacts and‘biophysicalvulnerability’

prevailingsocio-economic& environmentalconditions andon ‘socialvulnerability’

Community-based

adaptation,pilot projects

Adaptation

Freely adapted from Dessai& Hulme (2004)

Main entry points for mainstreaming climate change

in strategic policy and planning processes

Main entry points in thenational and sector policy cycles

Policy cyclestage

National level Sector level

Policy formulation National long-term visionNational policies andstrategies

Sector policies andstrategies

Recogniseclimate risks

Allocate funding forclimate-specific

actions

Includeclimate

considera-tions inproject

selectionstrategies

Planning Multi-year development plan Sectoral plans

Resourceallocation

National budgetClimate-related fund(s)

Sector budget envelopesResources from fund(s)

Programming &implementation

Sector-level developmentplans and budgets

Sector programming

Adapted from: Olhoff & Schaer (2010) Fig. 1, p. 10

Include climate-related programmes/

projects (sectoraland cross-sectoral)

Relocate funding tovulnerable or priority

sectors/ regions

Incorporateclimate-related

activities

selectioncriteria

BVI: Key adaptation options- Examples at policy level (1)

• Beach and shoreline stability

– Avoid undermining natural beaches/shorelines or creatingvulnerable man-made ones

– Protect beaches and vulnerable shorelines with naturaldefences where practicaldefences where practical

– Allow for natural adjustments in beaches/shorelines assea level rises (unless it would pose a danger or too significant a loss)

• Critical infrastructure

– Enhance the resilience of existing critical infrastructure

– Avoid building new infrastructure in areas or with materialsvulnerable to climate hazards

• Energy security

– Enhance the resilience of the electricity generation anddistribution system

– Implement policies to reduce energy use and encouragegreater energy independencegreater energy independence

• Food security – Agriculture

– Expand and increase resilience of local agriculturalproduction (with policies to encourage water efficiency,environmental sensitivity, technology and local capacity building)

• Food security – Fisheries

– Place greater emphasis on protection of fisheries habitatand sustainable fisheries practices

• Human health

– Emphasise preventative vs treatment approach forimpacted health issues

– Increase the resilience of the population to health impacts

– Enhance the capacity of the healthcare sector

• Insurance and banking

– Depend less on global insurance companies and looktowards more regional solutions

– Minimise vulnerability of insured and mortgaged propertiesto climate change impactsto climate change impacts

• Tourism:

– Take strong ‘no regrets’ measures to preserve the qualityof natural and historical attractions

– Enhance the resilience of tourism infrastructure andfacilities to climate impacts

– Create a more environmentally responsible tourismindustry

Cayman Islands’ tourism sector:proposed adaptation measures

• New policy and regulations for coastalconstructions

• Strategic beach management plan andestablishment of a Beach Management Fund

• Engage and support tourism sector stakeholders formainstreaming adaptation planning

– Public education and outreach strategy

– Development of action plans and implementation ofprogrammes to engage tourism businesses

– Incentives, finance and technical assistance to enhanceclimate resilience of tourism businesses

Cayman Islands’ tourism sector:proposed mitigation measures

• Finalisation of the national energy policyand its implementation plan

• Enactment of an energy efficiency-focused buildingcode + code compliance/enforcement in the sector

• Integration of sustainable design and land use• Integration of sustainable design and land usepolicies in tourism planning processes

• Industry awareness and assistance

– Public education and outreach strategy

– Incentives, finance and technical assistance to enhancethe energy efficiency of tourism businesses, retrofitting ofthe existing building stock

Tools for mainstreaming climate change

in strategic policy and planning processes

Tools supporting awarenessraising...

Awareness

Vulnerability andadaptation

assessments

... are also useful forinfluencing policies and

informing planningprocesses

Awarenessraising

Influence onpolicies

Macro and mesoeconomicanalysis

Demonstrationprojects

Adapted from: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

EuropeAid’s climate changesector scripts

•Agriculture and rural development•Ecosystems and biodiversitymanagement•Education•Energy supply

•Energy supply•Health•Infrastructure•Solid waste management•Trade and investment•Water supply and sanitation

Hazard and risk

Hazard Risk

Probability ofoccurrence

Hazard Risk

Severity ofconsequences

Climate risk screening

• Identifies potential risks for a programme orproject by assessing, in its specific context:

Exposure to theeffects of CC

Maladaptation risk

• A standard screening questionnaire can bedeveloped to support this exercise

Sensitivity to sucheffects

Response &adaptation capacity

OPTIONAL:Impacts on climate(GHG emissions/

emission removals)

Climate risk screening:key factors to consider

• Location

• Sector

• Relationship of the planned intervention tolivelihoodslivelihoods

• Socio-economic conditions (current – projected)

• Adaptive capacity of various stakeholder groups

– Including current coping mechanisms / autonomousadaptation measures

• Lifetime of the considered investments/activities

Outcomes of climate riskscreening

No specific action, or limited measures

Further investigation, adaptationmeasures

Further investigation, redesign forreduced vulnerability/enhanced adaptive

capacity, or even abandonment

Vulnerability to theeffects of CC

None or low

Medium

GHG emissions oremission removals

Significant (*)

No specific action

Further investigation, redesign forreduced maladaptation risk, or even

abandonment

No specific action, or limited measures

Further investigation and enhancementof mitigation potential

Risk ofmaladaptation

Insignificant

(*) In proportion to the size/scope of the intervention

Climate risk assessment

• Climate risk assessment (CRA) is a dedicatedstudy aimed at:

– assessing in further detail the risks identified duringclimate risk screening

– identifying possible risk prevention, risk mitigation andother adaptation measures

– assessing these options

– formulating concrete recommendations with regard tothe design of the programme or project

The assessment of future climate risks should beanchored to an assessment of current risks

Strategic environmentalassessment (SEA)

• A study:

– aimed at analysing the environmental consequences ofproposed policies/plans/programmes, as well as the mainenvironmental opportunities, risks and constraints to betaken into account

taken into account

– for the purpose of promoting more sustainabledevelopment

Ensures that environmental considerations are takeninto account EARLY in the policy & planning process

Role of SEA in supportingclimate change mainstreaming

• With adequate ToR, SEA can:

– identify elements of the considered policy or programmethat are sensitive to or at risk from climate change

– identify elements that may result in increased vulnerabilityto the effects of climate change

– assess direct and indirect GHG emissions

– identify options for risk management, adaptation andmitigation

and make recommendations on alternatives, on institutionalaspects, capacity building, etc.

For a model of ToR, see handout or EC Guidelines on theIntegration of Environment & Climate Change (2009), Annex 5

Fiji: Climate-sensitive SEA (1)

• Fiji: SEA of Tourism Development Plan (WWF, 2003)

– Climate change may contribute to the generation ofsynergistic impacts

• e.g. Coral reefs threatened by the combined effects of increased• e.g. Coral reefs threatened by the combined effects of increasednutrient loading (from sewerage and seepage from landfills),higher water temperatures, more boat movements and morecontact with divers

– Sustainability objectives (against which the impacts of the

Plan are assessed) include ‘minimising climate changeimpacts’ by ‘minimising greenhouse gas emissions pertourist day/tourist dollar’

Source: Levett & McNally (2003)26

– The potential effects of climate change on Fiji and theirconsequences for tourism are summarised in theenvironmental baseline

• Spoiling of coastal environments (coral bleaching, coastal erosion,sedimentation of shoreline and coral reefs)sedimentation of shoreline and coral reefs)

• Increased vulnerability of tourism facilities to flooding and stormdamage

• More frequent disruption to tourist travel and restrictions onenjoyment due to extreme weather events

• Increased health risks to tourists

• Greater competition and conflict over access to natural resourcesas non-tourism demands increase while climate change erodesthe resource base (freshwater, land, ...)

– The socio-economic baseline mentions the targeting ofinternational air travel for GHG emission reductions as along-term development that might threaten tourismdevelopment

– Without mitigation measures, the objective of ‘minimisingclimate change impacts’ cannot be reached

– Reducing the ‘climate change intensity’ of tourism willrequire:

• reducing air travel impacts in proportion to tourism benefits (e.g.longer stays, closer origin)

• implementing energy efficiency measures in new developments(e.g. low-energy accommodation, use of renewable energy)

Also: possibility of integratingclimate change in EIAs

Is the assessment linked to:

A specific policy, strategy,programme or project?

NoVulnerability and

adaptation assessment

A specific policy orstrategy?

Yes(†)

Strategic environmentalassessment (*)

A specific programme?

Yes(†)

A specific project?Yes(†)

Climate risk assessment

Environmental impactassessment (*)

(*) With ToRs adapted to includeclimate-related considerations

(†) Climate risk screening can be applied beforeundertaking a more detailed assessment 30

References (1)

• Burnett Penn A. (2010) The Virgin Islands Climate Change Green Paper. Prepared by theConservation and Fisheries Department, Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour.Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize, and Government of theVirgin Islands. Available from: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/projects/enhancing-capacity-for-adaptation-to-climate-change-ecacc-in-the-uk-caribbean-overseas-territories-project.html

• CARICOM & SPREP (2004) Adapting to a Changing Climate in the Caribbean and SouthPacific Regions: Guide to the Integration of Climate Change Adaptation into theEnvironmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process. Caribbean CommunityEnvironmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process. Caribbean CommunitySecretariat/Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean (ACCC) Project & South PacificRegional Environment Programme (SPREP), with assistance from the Global EnvironmentFacility (GEF), the World Bank and the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA).Available from: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/accc/accc.html

• Dessai S. & Hulme M. (2004) Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? ClimatePolicy, vol. 4 (2) 107-128. Available from: http://www.mikehulme.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/04/2004-dessai-hulme-probabilities.pdf

• EC (2009b) Guidelines on the Integration of Environment and Climate Change inDevelopment Cooperation. European Commission, Brussels. Available from:http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/infopoint/publications/europeaid/172a_en.htm

References (2)

• Hurlston-McKenzie L-A., Olynik J., Montoya Correa J. & Grant L. (2011) Vulnerability andCapacity Assessment of the Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise Impacts on the CaymanIslands’ Tourism Sector. Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize.Available from: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/projects/enhancing-capacity-for-adaptation-to-climate-change-ecacc-in-the-uk-caribbean-overseas-territories-project.html

• Levett R. & McNally R. (2003) A Strategic Environmental Assessment of Fiji’s TourismDevelopment Plan. World Wildlife Fund (WWF). Available from:Development Plan. World Wildlife Fund (WWF). Available from:http://www.worldwildlife.org/what/wherewework/coraltriangle/WWFBinaryitem7758.pdf

• OECD (2009a) Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation:Policy guidance. OECD Publishing, Paris. [Read-only, browse-it edition] Available from:http://browse.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/pdfs/browseit/4309171E.PDF

• Olhoff A. & Schaer C. (2010) Screening tools and guidelines to support the mainstreaming ofclimate change adaptation into development assistance: A stocktaking report. Environment &Energy Group, United Nations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/climatechange/library_integrating_cc.shtml

• UNDP-UNEP (2011) Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into DevelopmentPlanning: A Guide for Practitioners. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative. Availablefrom: http://www.unpei.org/knowledge-resources/publications.html

Module 7

Costing, assessing and selecting

adaptation and mitigation

options and measuresoptions and measures

Linking policy, costing andbudgeting

Mainstreaming of climate change inpolicies, strategies & programmes

Identification of adaption and mitigationoptionsoptions

Costing, assessment and selection ofadaptation and mitigation options

Resource allocation: Integration ofadaptation and mitigation measures in

budgets

Tools for costing and assessing

adaptation and mitigation options

Cost-benefit analysis: identifyingcosts and benefits

Adaptation

Costs: extra costs incurred compared with the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario

Benefits: avoided damage and losses, extra developmentalbenefits compared with ‘business-as-usual’ scenario

Mitigation

Costs: extra costs incurred compared with ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, reduced economic growth opportunities

Benefits: cost savings, sales of carbon credits, positiveenvironmental and related health/livelihoods outcomes (+difficult to value: strategic and competitive advantages)

Can youthink ofsome

examples?

Cost-benefit analysis (1)

• Cost-benefit analysis (CBA):

– Quantifies all the costs and benefits (*) of an intervention(with benefits including both ‘positive’ benefits andavoided losses) over the entire lifetime of the intervention

– A ‘discount rate’ is applied to all costs and benefits to– A ‘discount rate’ is applied to all costs and benefits torepresent ‘preference for the present’ or simply theopportunity cost of capital -> calculation of ‘present value’

• The higher the discount rate, the smaller the present value

• The further away in the future, the smaller the present value

• Significant controversies over the ‘right’ discount rate for assessinglong-term options

(*) Actually the ‘incremental’ costs and benefits, i.e. the difference incosts/benefits between a ‘with intervention’ and a ‘no intervention’ scenario

Cost-benefit analysis (2)

Outputs of cost-benefit analysis:

Cost-benefit ratio (CBR) Ratio of costs to benefits calculatedat their present value (the smaller,

the better – should be <1)

Net present value (NPV)

Internal rate of return (IRR)

Benefits minus costs calculated attheir present value (the larger, the

better)

The discount rate at which NPV = 0A measure of the ‘benefit-generatingpower’ of the option or intervention

(the larger, the better)

Anguilla: CBR of protectionmeasures against coastal floods

Cost/benefit ratio for measures

Cost-benefit ratio and loss avoidance potential for adaptation measuresUSD millions, 2009

Measures with net positive benefits

Measures with net negative benefits

2030: High change

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Averted losses

Source: CCRIF (2010) Appendix 2, p. 13

Cost-Benefit ratio for Coastal Flooding

1 CB=1

A Elevate new structures in flood zone

Revive reefs

Plant mangroves

Nourish beaches

Papua New Guinea: CBR of protec-tion measures against coastal floods

Nourish beaches

Retrofit important buildings

Build retaining wall in high-valuelocations

Flood-adapt house contents

Build dikes

Create offshore breakers

IA C EB D

F H IG

Source: Office of Climate Change and Development, Government of Papua New GuineaPresentation made at the GCCA workshop in Vanuatu, 28 February – 2 March 2011

Lossaverted

Samoa – Costs of adaptation –Coastal flooding risk reduction (1)

Risk aversedecisionmakers mightaccept ahigher CBR,

9.59.1

Cost benefit ratio (CBR)

4.04.1

Exhibit 4 – The overall cost-benefit assessment shows a variety of options toreduce coastal flooding risk/annual expected loss

higher CBR,e.g., 1.52

Back Away Relocation1

Mobile Barriers

Revive reefs

Mangrove

0.50.3

Sandbagging

500400300200

Moveable BuildingsBreakwaters

Sea walls

Stilts (old)

Flood-proof building structures

Stilts (new)

Flood-adapt contents

Beach nourishment

PV of averted lossesUSD millions

800700

1 Relocation only includes residential and commercial buildings outside of Apia2 For example, a cost benefit ratio of ~1.5 is implicitly accepted by customers purchasing an insurance contract with a loss ratio between 60 and 70%

Risk neutraldecisionmakers willbasedecision onCBR = 1.0

Samoa – Costs of adaptation –Coastal flooding risk reduction (2)

Exhibit 5 – Risk transfer is the most efficient way of providing additionalcoverage for low-frequency events

Example of evaluation of alternative options to cover residual risk of coastalflooding in Samoa

• In a risk averse setting,decision makers selectadaptation measures by takinginto account two maincomponents:

– Objective/risk-neutral netvalue

– Subjective assessment of

Loss for 250-year event

In percent of GDP

Loss covered

In percent of residualrisk to be covered

Furtherhard 23

Annual cost1

In USD millions

Approach to risk aversedecision making

Risk transfer offers the fulldesired level of coverage andis significantly cheaper thanother considered measures

– Subjective assessment ofcosts and benefits

• The results of subjectiveassessment of costs andbenefits should include twomain elements:

– A reference event to beconsidered while selectingprotection (e.g., a 250-yearevent)

– The maximum bearableloss for the reference event– this can be expressed as apercentage of GDP (e.g.,5%)

hardmeasures

Risktransfer

Residualrisk to becovered

Maximumbearableloss

Lossavertedby costefficientmeasures

Totalloss

Cost-effectiveness analysis (1)

• Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA):

– Costs are valued in monetary terms, and benefits (*)quantified in ‘physical’ units, over the entire lifetime of theintervention; a discount rate is applied to both

– This allows calculating unit costs, as the ratio of totaldiscounted costs to total discounted benefits obtained

– The obtained unit costs support :• the comparison of several options

• comparison with ‘benchmark costs’ for similar interventions, whereavailable

(*) As in cost-benefit analysis, ‘incremental’ rather than absolute costs andbenefits should be taken into account

Cost-effectiveness analysis (2)

• Compared with CBA, CEA:

– is suitable where it is difficult to assign a monetary valueto benefits

– but requires identifying a single, all-encompassingmeasure of benefits – which may be both difficult andreductive

Illustration of CEA: Global GHGabatement cost curve

Source: McKinsey (2009), Exhibit 8, p. 17

Basis for privatesector decision

making

Financial and economic analysis

• Both CBA and CEA support:

– financial analysis: considers the ‘monetary’ costs andbenefits (or equivalent) accruing to parties directlyconcerned by a project or programme, at their ‘face value’

Basis for publicsector decision

making

concerned by a project or programme, at their ‘face value’

– economic analysis: broadens the analysis to moreaccurately reflect costs and benefits to society

Complementary tools

• For the assessment of robustness and theintegration of uncertainty, CBA/CEA can becombined with:

– the use of multiple scenarios (e.g. ‘no change’ scenario– the use of multiple scenarios (e.g. ‘no change’ scenarioand various climate change and development scenarios)

– sensitivity analysis (i.e. testing of the effect of changes inscenario assumptions on the CBR, NPV, IRR or unit costs)

– risk analysis (-> risk probability analysis includes theprobability of occurrence of various cost and benefitoutcomes in calculations... assuming probabilities are known)

Tools for prioritising and selecting adaptation and

mitigation measures

Supporting decision making

• CBA/CEA support the financial and economicassessment of adaptation/mitigation options

– They help identify measures that offer the best ‘value formoney’ – a key aspect in situations of budgetaryconstraints

• Other types of assessment and other criteria (e.g.

technical, social, environmental) are required to fullyinform decision makers

Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) helpsintegrate various criteria

Multi-criteria analysis (1)

• An approach to decision support that usesmore than one criterion to assess performance andrank various options or interventions

• The term actually covers a wide range of methods

• Typically:

– various options or interventions are assessed against apre-determined set of criteria

– qualitative ratings or quantitative scores are given

– rules are then applied to rank options/interventions• Numerical scores can be added up to calculate a total score (with

the possibility of applying different weights to different criteria)

Multi-criteria analysis (2)

• MCA is a useful complement to CBA/CEA

• Allows combining financial/economic criteria withtechnical, environmental and social ones

• It can be used on its own, or in combination with• It can be used on its own, or in combination withCBA/CEA:

MCA before CBA/CEA

MCA after CBA/CEA

Allows reducing the number ofoptions to which CBA/CEA is applied

CBA/CEA helps eliminate financiallyor economically unviable options,then MCA allows for final selection

based on extra criteria

Example of MCA grid

Option Effective-ness

Costor

CBR (*)

Technicalfeasibility

Social &cultural

acceptability

Env’limpacts

Totalscore

Option 1

Option 2Option 2

Option 3

Option 4

Scores: from 1 (poorest performance) to 4 (highest performance). As faras cost is concerned, a scale should be established, with scorescorresponding to a given cost range or cost/unit range.(*) CBR = cost-benefit ratio

Adapted from USAID (2007), Exhibit 12, p. 18

References

• CCRIF (2010) Enhancing the climate risk and adaptation fact base in the Caribbean: Aninformational brochure highlighting the preliminary results of the ECA Study. CCRIF’s Economicsof Adaptation (ECA) Initiative. Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, Grand Cayman,Cayman Islands. Available from:http://www.ccrif.org/sites/default/files/publications/ECABrochureFinalAugust182010.pdf

• Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group (2009) Shaping climate-resilient development: aframework for decision-making. Climate Works Foundation, Global Environment Facility,framework for decision-making. Climate Works Foundation, Global Environment Facility,European Commission, McKinsey & Company, The Rockfeller Foundation, Standard CharteredBank & Swiss Re. Available from:http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/Social_Sector/our_practices/Economic_Development/Knowledge_Highlights/Economics_of_climate_adaptation.aspx

• McKinsey & Company (2009) Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy: Version 2 of the GlobalGreenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curve. Available from:http://www.mckinsey.com/globalGHGcostcurve

• USAID (2007) Adapting to Climate Variability and Change: A guidance manual for developmentplanning. United States Agency for International Development, Washington, DC. Available from:http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNADJ990.pdf

Module 8

Mainstreaming climate change

in the budgetary processin the budgetary process

related policies and measuresImplications of climate-related policies and measures

for public revenue and expenditure

Implications of climate changeintegration on the revenue side

Carbon tax/ Taxes on

high-emissionactivities

Taxes oneconomic

activities related toclimate adaptation

& mitigationmeasures

Foreign grants &other financial

transfers relatedto adaptation &

mitigation

Growtheffects fromincreased

competitive-nessE

VENUES

Revenues

activitiesmeasures

mitigation ness

Reduced taxes onactivities that

shrink or fail todevelop as a result

of adaptation ormitigation policies

Implications of climate changeintegration on the expenditure side

Subsidies foradaptation &mitigation-

relatedactivities

Current expendituresin relation toadaptation &

mitigation activities &specific infrastructure

maintenance

Public investment(capital expenditure)in adaptation and/or

mitigation-relatedinfrastructureE

VENUES

Expenditures

activitiesmaintenance

infrastructure

Reduced subsidiesfor fuel

consumption andother high-

emission activities

Reduced spending onhealth care,

infrastructurereplacement etc. as aresult of successful

adaptation measures

Linking the budget to policy

objectives and expected results

Linking spending to policy andresults, with a medium-term outlook

National objectives and strategies

Medium-term budget perspectiveor expenditure framework

Medium-termsector plans

Annual budget

Implementation & service delivery

Performance monitoring

The medium-term expenditureframework (MTEF)

• A forward-looking budgetary planning toolcovering a 3 to 5-year period

– systematically links strategic objectives (national/sectoral)and related outputs/outcomes with actions required toachieve them, corresponding expenditures and resources

– supports the prioritisation of expenditures and thepredictability of resources

– facilitates performance monitoring

• Can be established at the national level (inter-sectoral

allocations) as well as the sectoral level (intra-sectoralallocations)

Module 9

Mainstreaming climate change

in monitoring systemsin monitoring systems

Performance measurement and monitoring:

Key concepts

Objectives and relatedindicators/milestones

Hierarchy of objectives Progress measurement

Overall objective(s) Impact indicators

Outcom

Specific objective(s)

Intermediate results

Inputs

Outcome indicators

Output indicatorsMilestones

Input indicatorsMilestones

Process

Adapted from: EC (2004), OECD (2002)3

Mainstreaming climate change in monitoring systemsMainstreaming climate change in monitoring systemsMainstreaming climate change in monitoring systemsMainstreaming climate change in monitoring systems

What should be monitored,and why?

Aspect to monitor Rationale for monitoring

Climate variability and change,impacts and vulnerabilities

• Make decisions as well informed aspossible• Support adaptive management

Policy and institutional change • Promote the institutionalisation of

Policy and institutional change • Promote the institutionalisation ofclimate change mainstreaming• Enhance the transparency andaccountability of the mainstreamingprocess

Policy/Strategy implementation andoutcomes

• Strengthen commitment to theobjectives set in policies andstrategies• Stimulate the achievement oftangible outcomes

Climate change in the nationaldevelopment monitoring system

• Climate monitoring should be integratedinto wider national and specific developmentmonitoring systems

=> Strengthen and adapt existing monitoring systems=> Strengthen and adapt existing monitoring systems(incl. statistical systems) to integrate climate change

• Build on existing institutions and sources of information...

• ... but adapt statistical systems and data sources

Levels at which to measureclimate-related performance

• Indicators and milestones related to climatechange and the associated response can beincluded in the PAFs (*) of climate changestrategies and actions plans, but also those of:strategies and actions plans, but also those of:

– national and sectoral development strategies andprogrammes

– sub-national (e.g. regional, local) development plans

– individual projects (logical framework)

(*) Performance assessment frameworksUltimate objective of

mainstreaming!

Monitoring climate change

Mainstreaming

Meteorology,climate

variabilityClimate change

• Data collection, • New patterns

Mainstreaming• Data collection,management and

dissemination• Strengthening of

meteorologicalinformation & systems

• New patterns

• Emerging trends

•Projections, scenarios

• Tools for assessingimpacts, vulnerab-

ilities & risks

Is the mainstreamingprocess based on

reliable information?

CC monitoring in the health sector:Madagascar (1)

• Pilot project of the WMO:

– ‘Use of meteorological and climate information in supportof Madagascar health services’

• Objective:

– Help the meteorological service provide the health sector– Help the meteorological service provide the health sectorwith climate data useful for the prevention of and responseto epidemics

• Targeted vector-borne diseases:

– Malaria, pest, Rift valley fever

Source: IOC (2010) ACCLIMATE regional project. Presentation by N. Raholijao, GeneralDirectorate for Meteorology in MadagascarClimate-health workshop, Reunion Island, 25-28 October 2010 (www.coi-ioc.org)

• Approach:

– Training for meteorological services• Role of meteorological factors in the dissemination of vector-borne

diseases

• Development of ‘products’ (data and weather/climate forecasts) tohelp anticipate the occurrence of epidemics (early warning system)help anticipate the occurrence of epidemics (early warning system)

– Training of public health experts• Access to and use of meteorological databases

• Analysis and interpretation of meteorological, climatic andepidemiological data

Specific training for each group +joint training:

->understand each other’s needs->develop a common language

• Project support – Complementary activities:

– Setting up of 8 weather stations on ‘sentinel sites’ of thehealth system

– Training of health personnel at these sites in the basicmaintenance of stations + capacity building for DGMeteorology for mobile maintenance and assistance

– Creation of a research group on relations on relationsbetween climate and health in Madagascar

• Must allow refining models and enhancing anticipation capacities

Monitoring policy and institutionalchange

Mainstreaming

Policy changeInstitutional

change

• Integration ofadaptation/mitigation

• Political leadership

• Inst’l commitment

adaptation/mitigationconsiderations innational & sectorpolicies/strategies• Development of

adaptation- &mitigation-oriented

policies & plans (e.g.DRR, REDD

strategy)

• Inst’l commitment

• Coordination &participatorymechanisms

•Procedures

• Systems

•Tools

•Capacity buildingprogrammes

Is mainstreaminggetting

institutionalised atall levels?

Monitoring policy implementationand outcomes

Mainstreaming

Implementation(inputs, outputs)

Outcomes,impacts

• Increased allocationof resources

• Increased resilienceof vulnerable groups

of resources• (Inclusion of)

adaptation/mitigation(measures in)

programmes/projects• Implementation &

enforcement ofadaptation/mitigation

measures &regulations

of vulnerable groups(women, children, farmers,coastal communities, ...)

• Increased resilienceof key sectors

• Green growth,green jobs

• Climate-resilient,low-emissiondevelopment

Does themainstreaming

process produceresults and impacts?

References

• EC (2004) Project Cycle Management Guidelines. Aid Delivery Methods series, Volume 1.European Commission, Brussels. Available from:http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/infopoint/publications/europeaid/documents/49a_adm_pcm_guidelines_2004_en.pdf

• IOC (2010) L’Apprentissage par la pratique: utilisation des informations météorologiques etclimatiques à l’appui des services de santé à Madagascar. ACCLIMATE regional project.climatiques à l’appui des services de santé à Madagascar. ACCLIMATE regional project.Presentation by N. Raholijao, General Directorate for Meteorology in Madagascar. Climate-healthworkshop, Reunion Island, 25-28 October 2010. Available from the Indian Ocean Commission’swebsite (www.coi-ioc.org)

• OECD (2002) Glossary of Key Terms in Evaluation and Results Based Management. OECDPublishing, Paris. Available from: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/29/21/2754804.pdf

global climate change alliance support facility€¦ · model- and scenario-driven stakeholder...

Documents

tool 1. scenarios guideexplicitly identified in the...

organizational structure of subnational and local … ·...

subnational redd+ in the amazon rainforest

subnational full toolkit

cfp | principles for revising subnational public finance...

nuclear communication and stakeholder engagement · nuclear...

ercot scenario development stakeholder workshop cnp...

pisa 2006 subnational results

voluntary subnational review

bird - subnational taxation paper

the role of multi-stakeholder forums in subnational ...1...

participatory subnational planning for redd+ and other ......

subnational debt management performance …

subnational debt, insolvency, and market development ·...

voluntary subnational review – norway

scenario analysis synopsis of stakeholder meetings

subnational population projections for england

subnational election harvard

the persistence of (subnational) fortune · the persistence...

comparative analysis subnational governance