gilbert o ouma igad climate applications and prediction centre (icpac) nairobi
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THE USE OF REMOTE SENSING
DATA/INFORMATION AS PROXY OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE IN THE GREATER HORN OF
AFRICA
Gilbert O OumaIGAD Climate Applications and
Prediction Centre (ICPAC) Nairobi
Formerly Drought Monitoring Centre - Nairobi (DMCN)
Background
• The Horn of Africa is prone to extreme climate events such as droughts and floods with severe negative impacts on key socio-economic sectors
• Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) in Nairobi and a sub-centre in Harare were established in 1989 by 24 countries in eastern and southern Africa under the auspices of WMO and UNDP– to minimize the negative impacts of
extreme climate events – to take advantage of the good years
Background Cont.
• due to the increased demand for climate information and prediction services, the Nairobi and Harare components started operating independently in 1998 – Drought Monitoring Centre, Nairobi
(DMCN) GHA region– Drought Monitoring Centre, Harare
(DMCH) Southern Africa
Background Cont.
• In 2000 DMCN was absorbed as an autonomous specialized institution of IGAD
• The name of DMCN was then changed to IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) in order to properly reflect all its new mandates, mission and objectives within the IGAD system
ICPAC MEMBER STATES
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Sudan
Djibouti
Ethiopia
Eritrea
Somalia
Kenya
BurundiRwanda
Uganda
Tanzania
Main Objectives
• To improve the technical capacity of producers and users of climatic information, in order to enhance the input to and use of climate monitoring and forecasting products in planning
Objectives Cont.
• To develop an improved, proactive, timely, broad-based system of information and product dissemination and feedback, at both sub-regional and national scales through national partners
Objectives Cont.
• To expand the knowledge base within the sub-region in order to facilitate informed decision making, through a clearer understanding of climatic and climate-related processes, enhanced research and development, and a well managed reference archive of data and information products
Mission of ICPAC
• Fostering sub-regional and national capacity for climate information, prediction products and services, early warning, and related applications for sustainable development in the IGAD Sub-Region
Products
• Monitoring of past climate– The recent past climate over the
Horn of Africa is monitored in order to detect the evolution of any significant anomalies that could impact negatively on the socio – economic activities of the region•Dekadal, monthly and seasonal
summaries of rainfall and drought severity
•Monthly temperature anomalies– Given in bulletins
Products Cont.
• Current State of Climate– Monitored and assessed using
climate diagnostics and modelling techniques
– These are derived from: •State of the Sea Surface Temperature
anomalies over all the major oceans•Surface and upper air anomalies of
pressure, winds and other climate parameters
Products Cont.
• Prediction products– Derived from:
• Statistical and dynamical models run at the centre
• Dynamical model outputs from advanced centres – On dekadal, monthly and seasonal time scales
• The prediction products are provided through – Outlooks for dekads and months in bulletins– Seasonal outlooks in pre-season consensus
climate outlook fora
Products Cont.
• Impacts– An assessment of the vulnerability
together with the current and potential socio-economic conditions and impacts (both negative and positive) associated with the observed and projected climate anomalies is also made on a dekadal, monthly and seasonal time scales
Droughts
Floods
Products Cont.
• These products are disseminated to all National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the participating countries to serve as early warning information to a variety of sectoral users of meteorological information and products including policy makers, planners, health, energy, agricultural and water resource sectors, farmers as well as research institutions among others
Climate MonitoringClimate Monitoring
• Climate monitoring process entails assessing the current climate conditions in relation to history
• Use historical data to develop basic statistics that form the basis for the assessment
Climate Monitoring Cont.Climate Monitoring Cont.
• Lack of long-term data (Rainfall and Temperature) over Somalia
• OLR – Available from 1974– Poor spatial resolution – No proper ground-truthing over
Somalia done yet
Time Series MAM OLR (1974 - 2005)
235.0
240.0
245.0
250.0
255.0
260.0
265.0
270.0
275.0
280.0
285.0
290.0
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Years
Sea
son
al A
vera
ge
MAM
Linear (MAM)
Time Series JJA OLR (1974 - 2005)
250.0
255.0
260.0
265.0
270.0
275.0
280.0
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Years
Sea
son
al A
vera
ge
JJA
Linear (JJA)
Time Series SON OLR (1974 - 2005)
245.0
250.0
255.0
260.0
265.0
270.0
275.0
280.0
285.0
290.0
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Years
Sea
son
al A
vera
ges
SON
Linear (SON)
Time Series DJF OLR (1974 - 2005)
255.0
260.0
265.0
270.0
275.0
280.0
285.0
290.0
295.0
300.0
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Years
Sea
son
al A
vera
ges
DJF
Linear (DJF)
Climate Observation
• ICPAC works with the member countries to improve the climate observation network in the region in order to ensure availability of continuous high quality data that are required for climate change detection, attribution and other applications
Data for Climate Monitoring
• For purposes of climate monitoring, both historical and real-time daily data of rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures are used
• For historical data, a base period of 30 years (1961-90) has been used to generate the desired statistics on a ten day, monthly and seasonal time scales
• The historical climate data were obtained from the 10 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the participating countries in the Eastern Africa region
• The data is continuously updated– From the member states through email
every ten-days– Through Capacity building workshops in
which the National experts are mandated to bring their National data sets
• Near real time climate data is acquired through a number of modes– Initially, fax and telephone services – Currently, most countries send
through email
• For Somalia this has not been happening
Seasonal Forecast
• Use rainfall data from climatological regions in a country to locate highly correlated SST areas over the global oceans
• No data over Somalia• Use proxy
– OLR– RFE
H A R G
G A LC
B ELE
BAID O
BAR DAFG O
M O G A
BO R A
42.00 44.00 46.00 48.00 50.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
ZONE1
ZONE2
ZONE 3
DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL ZONES OVER SOM ALIA
OND AND ERF Over Mogadishu Z1
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Years
Ano
mal
ies RAINFALL
RFE
XMRPRED
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