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Evening Roundup28 July 2020
US Consumer Confidence @ 19:30 IST
A Daily Report on Bullion, Base Metals & Energy
Geojit Financial Services Ltd.
34/659-P, Civil Line Road,
Padivattom, Kochi – 682024
Day So far
• Investors shifted their attention towards the Federal Reserve’s two day
policy meeting that begins today and gives the decision tomorrow. Even
though the sentiments weighed on brewing tension between US and China
coupled with spiking corona cases, markets continued to soothe its nerves
with an expectation of another accommodative policy stance from US.
Global equities seen mixed, while commodity futures in India’s MCX
platform, slipped lower.
• Precious metals seen under pressure after testing recent highs on
retreating dollar. Gold prices eked out gains after stretching to record high
of $1980.56 an ounce at one point of time and seen trading at $1930 an
ounce. Silver in the same platform exhibited massive price fluctuation and
currently seen with loss around 3.00 percent.
• Limited price moves had been witnessed in crude oil. Although, hopes of
additional stimulus measures from US central bank checked the dampened
demand outlook of crude oil over rising coronavirus cases. Both WTI and
Brent were trading with moderate loss. Meanwhile Natural gas prices
rebounded after previous session’s steep fall.
• Base metals complex on MCX platform were under pressure led by Nickel,
which shed more than a percent. However, industrial metals on Shanghai
market were being traded on a mixed bag, where Lead gained more than
2.00 percent.
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MAJOR COMMODITIES IN MCX /NCDEX INTERNATIONAL PRICES
Last updated at 16:00 IST
GAINERS / LOSERS (MCX) INDICES UPDATES
RATIOS
Commodity Last %Chg Open High LowPrevious
Day CloseVol
Gold52010 -0.17 52186 52435 51277 52101 10530
Silver 63911 -2.47 66047 67560 61597 65528 58119
Crude Oil 3104 -0.42 3116 3125 3092 3117 33410
Natural Gas 130.4 -0.08 129.6 130.9 128.9 130.5 17174
Copper 503.15 -0.35 506.3 506.3 502.4 504.9 6164
Nickel 1024 -1.45 1033 1033 1022.5 1039.1 6134
Lead 148.45 0.03 148.7 148.85 148.2 148.4 1171
Zinc 175.9 -0.68 180 180 175.45 177.1 3593
Aluminium 140.05 -0.18 140.4 140.45 139.9 140.3 373
Commodity Rate % Chg
Gold ($/oz)1930.231 -0.6
Silver (c/oz) 23.7078 -3.67
Nymex Crude ($/bbl) 41.35 -0.6
Nymex NG ($/mmbtu) 1.746 0.69
SHFE Copper (CNY/T)51540 -0.27
SHFE Nickel (CNY/T) 108570 -0.55
SHFE Lead (CNY/T) 15450 2.05
SHFE Zinc (CNY/T)18010 -0.5
SHFE Aluminium
(CNY/T) 14525 0.59
Indices Rate % Chg
Dow Jones Fut 26389.0 -0.36
CAC**4900.9 -0.78
DAX** 12775.0 -0.5
Shanghai* 3228.0 0.71
MSCI Asia Pacific index 166.8 0.848
Baltic Dry index 1293 -1.822
Dollar index 93.77 0.11
Ratio
5 Days Monthly 90 Days
Daily High Low High Low High Low
Gold Silver ratio80.89 83.36 79.51 100.73 79.51 113.47 79.51
Gold Crude ratio265.73 265.75 253.96 265.75 248.78 726793.17 247.39
Lead Zinc ratio 0.84 0.84 0.83 0.85 0.83 0.88 0.80
Steel Nickel ratio35.72 36.51 35.47 36.51 33.00 36.51 28.53
Lead Aluminium ratio1.08 1.08 1.07 1.16 1.07 1.27 1.07
80.89 grams of Silver is required to buy one gram of Gold
265.73 liters of Crude is required to buy one gram of Gold
0.84 kg of Zinc is required to buy one Kg of Lead
35.72 kg of Steel is required to buy one Kg of Nickel
1.08 kg of Aluminium is required to buy one Kg of Lead
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ECONOMIC DATA
Time Country Importance Event Actual Forecast Previous
Monday, July 27, 2020
7:00 China High Chinese Industrial profit (YoY) (Jun) 11.50% 6.00%
7:00 China High Chinese Industrial profit YTD (Jun) -12.8% -19.30%
18:00 US High Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun) 7.30% 7.20% 15.70%
18:00 US High Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jun) 15.30%
20:00 US Low Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Jul) -6.1
Tuesday, July 28, 2020
19:30 US High CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) 94.5 98.1
19:30 US Low Richmond Manufacturing Index (Jul) -27
Wednesday, July 29, 2020
2:00 US High API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 7.544M
16:30 US Moderate MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) 5.10%
18:00 US Moderate Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jun) -1.60%
18:00 US Moderate Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -1.20%
19:30 US High Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) 15.30% 44.30%
19:30 US High Pending Home Sales Index (Jun) 99.6
20:00 US High EIA Crude Oil Inventories -2.088M 4.892M
20:00 US High EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -0.618M 1.073M
20:00 US High EIA Gasoline Inventories -1.386M -1.802M
23:30 US V High FOMC Statement
23:30 US V High Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
0:00 US V High FOMC Press Conference
Thursday, July 30, 2020
5:20 Japan Moderate Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) -6.50% -12.50%
14:30 EUR Moderate Consumer Confidence (Jul) -15 -15
18:00 US High Continuing Jobless Claims 16,197K
18:00 US Moderate Core PCE Prices (Q2) 1.40% 1.70%
18:00 US High GDP (QoQ) (Q2) -34.00% -5.00%
18:00 US High GDP Sales (Q2) -3.50%
20:00 US High Natural Gas Storage 37B
Friday, July 31, 2020
5:20 Japan Moderate Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun) 1.20% -8.90%
6:30 China Moderate Chinese Composite PMI (Jul) 54.2
6:30 China High Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51 50.9
6:30 China High Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 54.4
14:30 EUR Moderate CPI (YoY) (Jul) 0.20% 0.30%
14:30 EUR Moderate CPI, n.s.a (Jul) 105.69
14:30 EUR High GDP (YoY) -13.90% -3.10%
14:30 EUR High GDP (QoQ) -11.20% -3.60%
17:00 India Moderate Bank Loan Growth 6.10%
17:00 India Moderate Deposit Growth 11.00%
17:30 India Moderate Infrastructure Output (YoY) (Jun) -23.40%
18:00 US High Personal Income (MoM) (Jun) -0.50% -4.20%
18:00 US High Personal Spending (MoM) (Jun) 5.50% 8.20%
19:15 US Moderate Chicago PMI (Jul) 44.5 36.6
19:30 US Moderate Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jul) 66.2 72.3
19:30 US Moderate Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) 72.9 73.2
19:30 US Moderate Michigan Current Conditions (Jul) 84.2 87.1
22:30 US Moderate U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 181
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BULLION
GOLD M
MCX Aug
Intra Day
Near Term
Technical Levels
R3 54200
R2 53200/53720
R1 52460/52700/52930
Turnaround 51650
S1 51220/50880
S2 50200/49960/49530
S3 49380/49140/48720
Technical Commentary
Early dips could be possible before initiating next stage of buying towards the
upside objective of 52460 or even to 52700. But a vertical fall through 51650
may push prices lower.
Technical Levels
R3 71000
R2 67800/68900
R1 65600/66400
Turnaround 61200
S1 59200
S2 58300/57000
S3 55500
Technical Commentary
Broad buying still intact and possibly to extend higher in the coming session
towards the upside objective of 65600 followed by 67800. But surprise fall
below 61200 may squeeze down prices lower.
SILVER M
MCX Aug
Intra Day
Near Term
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NATURAL GAS
MCX Aug
Intra Day
Near Term
CRUDEOIL
MCX Aug
Intra Day
Near Term
ENERGY
Technical Levels
R3 3425
R2 3275/3350
R1 3185/3240
Turnaround 3145
S1 3030/2985/2930
S2 2860
S3 2790/2725/2650
Technical Commentary
Current feebleness of prices likely to extend towards the downside objective
of 3030 then to Bollinger lower band level of 2985. But rise above 3145 may
lift prices higher.
Technical Levels135
R3 153/155.70
R2 148/150.70
R1 138/140.50/143.10
Turnaround 132
S1 130.20/126
S2 122.20/114.70
S3 110/106.80
Technical Commentary
Intraday move largely to be northbound with an immediate objective of 138
followed by 140.50. But fall past below 132 may squeeze down prices lower.
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NICKEL
MCX Aug
Intra Day
Near Term
BASE METALS
Technical Levels
R3 518.30/523.80
R2 514.60
R1 510
Turnaround 506.50
S1 498.30/495.70/494
S2 491.30
S3 488/483.50/475
Technical Commentary
Botched attempt to crack above the obstacle of 506.50 could except a
corrective move towards the downside objective of 498.30 then to 495.70.
But voluminous trades above 506.50 could lift prices higher.
Technical Levels
R3 1073/1086
R2 1064
R1 1033/1045/1052
Turnaround 1020
S1 1010/998
S2 986/979
S3 967/954
Technical Commentary
Present selling move may succeed only below the SMA level of 1020 region. If
not could anticipate a price rebound to 1033 then to 1045.
Copper
MCX Aug
Intra Day
Near Term
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Zinc
MCX Aug
Intra Day
Near Term
Lead
MCX Aug
Intra Day
Near Term
BASE METALS
Technical Levels
R3 183.10
R2 180/181.40
R1 178/179.10
Turnaround 177.30
S1 174.30/172.90
S2 171.40/170
S3 168.30
Technical Levels
R3 155
R2 152/153.40
R1 150/151.20
Turnaround 149.55
S1147.60/146.30/145.
40
S2 144.20/143/141.70
S3 139.70
Technical Commentary
Witnessing weakness may continue in the coming session towards the
downside objective of 174.30 then to 172.90. In this bearish sentiments, rise
above 177.30 could lift prices higher.
Technical Commentary
As long as prices hold the hindrance of 149.55 could expect a corrective move
towards the downside objective of 147.60 then to 146.30. However, rise above
149.55 may lift prices higher.
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Aluminium
MCX Aug
Intra Day
Near Term
BASE METALS
Technical Levels
R3 144.90
R2 142.40/143.30
R1 141.10/141.80
Turnaround 139.70
S1 138.50/137.20
S2 136
S3 134.70/133
Technical Commentary
Ensuing buying sentiments likely to continue in the coming session towards the
Bollinger upper band level of 141.10 then to 141.80 region. But fall below
139.70 may squeeze down prices lower.
Buying
sentiment/
Bullish
Selling
sentiment/
Bearish
Neutral/
sideways
S1/S2/S3 -Support level – Price points where buying pressure thought to be strong enough to counter selling
pressure.
R1/R2/R3 -Resistance level – – Price points where selling pressure thought to be strong enough to counter
buying pressure.
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GENERAL DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS:
CERTIFICATION
I, Krishnaprasad N.B., employee of Geojit Financial Services Limited (GFSL), authors of this report, hereby
certify that all the views expressed in this research report (report) reflect our personal views about any or all
of the subject issuer or securities/ commodities.
DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by GFSL and the report & its contents are the exclusive property of GFSL and the
recipient cannot tamper with the report or its contents in any manner and the said report, shall in no case, be
further distributed to any third party for commercial use, with or without consideration.
GFSL has taken steps to ensure that facts in this report are based on reliable information but cannot testify,
nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained
within this report. It is hereby confirmed that wherever GFSL has employed a rating system in this report, the
rating system has been clearly defined including the time horizon and benchmarks on which the rating is based.
Descriptions of any Commodity or Commodities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this
report is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any commodity
or other financial instruments. GFSL has not taken any steps to ensure that the commodity/(ies) referred to in
this report are suitable for any particular investor. This Report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the
exercise of independent judgment. Opinions or estimates expressed are current opinions as of the original
publication date appearing on this Report and the information, including the opinions and estimates contained
herein, are subject to change without notice. GFSL is under no duty to update this report from time to time.
RISK DISCLOSURE
Geojit Financial Services Limited and/or its Affiliates and its officers, directors and employees including the
analyst/authors shall not be in any way be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from
any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Investors may lose his/her entire investment
under certain market conditions so before acting on any advice or recommendation in these material, investors
should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional
advice. This report does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial
situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The
user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this report should make
such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the
Commodity/(ies) referred to in this report (including the merits and risks involved). The price, volume and
income of the investments referred to in this report may fluctuate and investors may realize losses that may
exceed their original capital.
The investments or services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for all equally and it is
recommended that an independent investment advisor be consulted. In addition, nothing in this report
constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is
suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation of
GFSL.
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REGULATORY DISCLOSURES:
Geojit Financial Services Limited’s Associates consists of companies such as Geojit Technologies Private Limited
(GTPL- Software Solutions provider), Geojit Credits Private Limited (GCPL- NBFC Services provider), Geojit
Investment Services Limited (GISL- Corporate Agent for Insurance products), Geojit Financial Management
Services Private Limited (GFMSL) & Geojit Financial Distribution Private Limited (GFDPL), (Distributors of
Insurance and MF Units). In the context of the SEBI Regulations on Research Analysts (2014), Geojit Financial
Services Limited affirms that we are a SEBI registered Research Entity and we issue research reports /research
analysis etc that are prepared by our Research Analysts. We also affirm and undertake that no disciplinary
action has been taken against us or our Analysts in connection with our business activities.
In compliance with the above mentioned SEBI Regulations, the following additional disclosures are also
provided which may be considered by the reader before making an investment decision:
1. Disclosures regarding Ownership:
GFSL confirms that:
It/its associates have no financial interest or any other material conflict in relation to the subject Commodity
futures covered herein at the time of publication of this report.
Further, the Research Analyst confirms that:
He, his associates and his relatives have no financial interest in the subject Commodity futures covered herein,
and they have no other material conflict in the subject Commodity at the time of publication of this report.
2. Disclosures regarding Compensation:
During the past 12 months, GFSL or its Associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from
any entity/ third party in connection with the Commodity futures mentioned in this report.
3. Disclosure regarding the Research Analyst’s connection with the Commodity futures:
It is affirmed that I,Krishna prasad N.B., employed as Research Analyst by GFSL and engaged in the preparation
of this report have no substantial ownership or financial interest over any Commodity futures mentioned in the
report.
4. Disclosure regarding Market Making activity:
Neither GFSL nor its Research Analysts have engaged in market making activities for the subject Commodity
futures.
Copyright in this report vests exclusively with GFSL
Geojit Financial Services Ltd.,34/659-P, Civil Line Road, Padivattom, Kochi – 682024
Toll-Free Number: 1800-425-5501 / 1800-103-5501, Paid Number: 91 - 484 – 2901000
Research Entity SEBI Registration Number: INH200000345
Email id: customercare@geojit.com, Web: www.geojit.com
SEBI Stock Broker Registration No INZ000104737, Research Entity SEBI Reg No: INH200000345, Investment Adviser SEBI Reg No:
INA200002817, Portfolio Manager:INP000003203, SEBI Registration No. Stock Broker: INZ000104737 / Depository Participant: IN-DP-
325-2017, ARN Regn.Nos:0098, IRDA Corporate Agent (Composite) No.: CA0226.
mailto:customercare@geojit.comhttp://www.geojit.com/
2020-07-28T16:27:35+0530KRISHNA PRASAD N B
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