geographic isolation scenarios

Geographic Isolation Scenarios

Purpose

• Understand which basins affect which areas of the bay and by how much

Procedure

• Set the Susquehanna at Tier 3 loads and all other watersheds at 2000 levels

• Record the relative change in attainment for each criterion and designated use area

• Repeat for each basin

Progress

• All basins completed

• Results are provisional

Other Considerations

• Final criteria curves not implemented

• Final model applications areas not decided

• Final designated use boundaries and clarity depths not decided

• Problem with the interpolator

Criteria Achievement - CB3MH

7

2620

0 1

57

9

10

10

39

10

85

6470

9789

33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

DO open water DO Deep Water DO Deep Channel Chlorophyll spring Chlorophyllsummer

Clarity

Sample OutputCB3MH

BasinDO open

waterDO Deep

WaterDO Deep Channel

Total 4.65 12.98 17.54Susquehanna 3.30 9.29 12.79MD Western Shore 0.60 0.49 0.40MD Eastern Shore 0.26 1.19 1.09Patuxent 0.03 0.06 0.15Potomac 0.28 1.41 2.36Rappahannock 0.03 0.09 0.15York 0.03 0.06 0.13James 0.07 0.27 0.31VA Eastern Shore 0.04 0.12 0.16Tier3 4.49 17.12 20.18

% Attainment Increase

DO Deep Water CB3MH

Susquehanna72%

MD Western Shore4%

MD Eastern Shore9%

Patuxent0%

Potomac11%

Rappahannock1%

York0%

James2%

VA Eastern Shore1%

Graphical Output - absolute changeEffectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Main Bay

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Normalized OutputCB3MH

BasinDO open

waterDO Deep

WaterDO Deep Channel

lbs of => N N NSusquehanna 0.076 0.213 0.293MD Western Shore 0.114 0.093 0.076MD Eastern Shore 0.027 0.122 0.112Patuxent 0.029 0.065 0.156Potomac 0.012 0.059 0.098Rappahannock 0.011 0.031 0.049York 0.009 0.021 0.044James 0.006 0.020 0.023VA Eastern Shore 0.037 0.104 0.139Tier3 0.043 0.165 0.194

% Attainment Increase per million lbs

Graphical Output - NormalizedRelative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Main Bay

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mil

lio

n l

bs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Absolute Dissolved Oxygen Open Water

Absolute Dissolved Oxygen Deep Water

Legend<Null>

ESMD

James

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

SAME

Susquehanna

York

Absolute ClarityAbsolute Dissolved Oxygen Deep Channel

Legend<Null>

ESMD

James

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

SAME

Susquehanna

York

Absolute Spring Chlorophyll Absolute Summer Chlorophyll

Legend<Null>

ESMD

James

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

SAME

Susquehanna

York

Results

• Problems (red areas)

• Who has biggest impact

• Who has biggest relative effectiveness

Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Channel - Main Bay

#N/A 0

20

39

4 #N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A 1

10

10

10

#N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A

99

70

51

86

#N/A #N/A #N/A0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Channel - Main Bay

0

5

10

15

20

25

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Channel - Main Bay

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mil

lio

n l

bs

red

uce

d Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Channel - Potomac

#N/A #N/A 9#N/A #N/A

9

#N/A #N/A

82

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Channel - Potomac

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Channel - Potomac

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mil

lio

n l

bs

red

uce

d Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - Main Bay

#N/A 0

26

38

9 3 0 #N/A#N/A 3

10

10

10

94 #N/A#N/A

97

64

52

8189

96

#N/A0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Main Bay

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Main Bay

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mil

lio

n l

bs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - Patuxent

#N/A #N/A

23

#N/A #N/A

10

#N/A #N/A

67

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Patuxent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Patuxent

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mil

lio

n l

bs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - Potomac

#N/A #N/A

29

#N/A #N/A

10

#N/A #N/A

61

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Potomac

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Potomac

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mil

lio

n l

bs

red

uce

d Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - Rappahannock

#N/A #N/A

19

#N/A#N/A #N/A

10

#N/A#N/A #N/A

71

#N/A0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Rappahannock

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Rappahannock

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mil

lio

n l

bs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - York

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0 0#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 6 5#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

94 95

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - York

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - York

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mil

lio

n l

bs

red

uce

d Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - Eastern Shore

53

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

10

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

37

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Eastern Shore

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Eastern Shore

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - Main Bay

0 0 7 4 0 0 1 02 5

99

2 4 8 3

98 95

85 88

98 9691

97

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Main Bay

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Main Bay

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - Patuxent

0 0 42 3

9

98 97

87

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Patuxent

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Patuxent

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - Potomac

0 0 53 6

9

97 94

86

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Potomac

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Potomac

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

POTTF POTOH POTMHGre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - Rappahannock

0 0 0 01 1 6 5

99 9994 95

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Rappahannock

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Rappahannock

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - York

0 0 0 0 0 0 01 1 2 1 3 5 3

99 99 98 99 97 95 97

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - York

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - York

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - James

0 0 0 01 1 1 3

99 99 99 97

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - James

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - James

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - Eastern Shore

2 0 0 0 0 08

4 6 7 6 1

9096 94 93 94

99

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Eastern Shore

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH

Gre

en

pe

rce

nta

ge

po

ints

ga

ine

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Eastern Shore

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - Main Bay

2 4 0 0 1 8 8 656

2 2 3

6 66

9489

98 98 96

86 86 89

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Main Bay

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - Patuxent

5 3 1

44

4

91 93 94

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Patuxent

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - Potomac

0 0 24 25

95 9893

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Potomac

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - Rappahannock

2 0 1 04 2 3 2

9498 97 98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Rappahannock

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - York

0 0 0 0 1 3 22 2 2 2 34 5

98 98 98 98 9692 93

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - York

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - York

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - James

6 1 1

215

4 3

7

8996 97

73

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - James

-5

0

5

10

15

20

JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - James

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - Eastern Shore

0 1 0 0 0 02 3 2 3 2 2

98 96 98 97 98 98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Eastern Shore

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Eastern Shore

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - Main Bay

0 2 4 1 0 0 0 034

54 2 3 2 2

96 94 9195 98 97 98 98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Main Bay

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Gre

en

pe

rce

nta

ge

po

ints

ga

ine

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - Patuxent

37

19

5

8

8

5

55

73

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Patuxent

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - Potomac

23

1 2

8

4 4

69

95 94

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Potomac

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - Rappahannock

18

0 0 0

6

2 2 2

76

98 98 98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Rappahannock

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - York

0 0 0 0 2 0 02 2 2 23 3 2

98 97 98 9895 97 97

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - York

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - James

27

1 0 0

8

4 2 2

65

95 98 98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - James

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - Eastern Shore

112

0 2 0 05

7

24

2 3

94

81

9894

98 97

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Eastern Shore

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Clarity - Main Bay

62

5259

43 41 4036 36

9

9

9

98 8

8 8

30

40

32

48 51 5155 56

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Main Bay

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Main Bay

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PHGre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - Clarity - Patuxent

2925 28

78

8

6367

63

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Patuxent

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Patuxent

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - Clarity - Potomac

62

51

32

8

8

8

30

41

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Potomac

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Potomac

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - Clarity - Rappahannock

43

13

29

55

8

6

6

8

49

81

65

37

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Rappahannock

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Rappahannock

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - Clarity - York

38

17

27

44

1722 24

8

6

8

8

6

77

54

76

65

49

7771 68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - York

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - York

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - Clarity - James

50

33

22

12

8

7

8

6

42

61

71

82

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - James

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - James

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Criteria Achievement - Clarity - Eastern Shore

41

87

40 43

32

9

8

9

87

8

6

51

4

52 50

61

85

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Eastern Shore

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Eastern Shore

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH

Gre

en p

erce

nta

ge

po

ints

gai

ned

per

mill

ion

lbs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Tier3 Average

Still to Come

• New interpolator runs.• Revise with new criteria bioreference

curves, designated use boundaries, and clarity depths.

• After tidal fresh allocations are made, do a similar analysis to inform the final allocation decisions.