geoff mulgan - six winter school 2011

What future for social innovation? Geoff Mulgan

All knowledge is about the past But some trends more likely than

others The future can disturb the present We usually overestimate how much

can change short-term and underestimate how much can change long-term.

J U

Some usual suspects …

• Climate change

• Ageing and isolation

• Diversity and conflict

• Chronic disease and disability

• Rapid urbanisation

• Terror

Look for places that may signal the future ….

Hammarby Sjöstad, Sweden

Masdar City

BedZED, the UK

‘The future’s already here – it’s just unevenly distributed’

William Gibson

Look for numbers and trends that may signal the future ….

Population rises – and levels off

Energy prices (and other resource prices) go up

Education grows everywhere

Chinese become rich

China accumulates capital

CO2 emissions continue to rise

17

Systems redesign , eg smart grids for energy

Look for patterns that may grow demand for social innovation ….

Longer lives after 65Y

ea

rs r

em

ain

ing

aft

er

65

Source: US DHHS

Longer periods of later life in poor health

Life expectancy, healthy life expectancy and EU–healthy life expectancy at birth, Great Britain 1981–2006

Source: ONS

US Congressional Budget Office: projections forecast total spending on health care will rise from 16% of GDP in 2007 to 25% in 2025, 37% in 2050 and 49% in 2082.

European Union ageing predicted to drive public spending up by about 4 percentage points between 2004 and 2050.

The purchasing power of the 60+ generation in Germany will grow to over 40% by 2050

Ageing as a source of growth

More living alone: will loneliness become a pressing issue?

Health spend as % GDP versus adult mortality rate

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

40 60 80 100 120

Hea

lth

sp

end

as

% G

DP

Adult mortality rate

Source: OECD Health Data 2010

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%

% g

row

th i

n s

har

e o

f G

DP

(p

.a.)

% improvement in mortality rate (p.a.)

Change in health spend share of GDP versus % improvement in adult mortality rate

Look for dynamics ….

SIX service dynamics  Dynamics of consumption: positive elasticities of

demand for services including health, education, tourism, leisure

Dynamics of production: relative productivity effects of manufacturing affecting relative prices of services

Dynamics of technology: new business models combining manufacturing and services

Dynamics of environments within which services are provided: particularly important for health

Dynamics of globalisation: some services become organised globally, with global divisions of labour, markets and trade, and other services remain localised.

Dynamics of knowledge which becomes key source of power

Look for new combinations ….

Look for values ….

Source: Inglehart/WVSPersonal values moving toward self-expression

Socia

l valu

es a

re in

cre

asin

gly

secu

lar

/ ra

tion

al

Carry forward the innovation revolution

Elberfelder Farbenfabriken vorm. Friedrich Bayer & Co

Open innovation

Social innovation

Innovation in servicesUser innovation

Bell Labs, Holmdel, NJ

20 year vision

Social innovation integral to economic strategies and equivalent attention to that for science and technology

Networks of strong institutions – labs, funds, incubators, experimental zones – all linked by open data

Confident civil society at the forefront of solving social problems

We usually overestimate what can change short-term, and underestimate

what can change long-term