future projections · 2019. 11. 16. · future projections child populaon projecon child care...

FUTUREPROJECTIONS

ChildpopulaJonprojecJon

Childcarespacesneededtomaintainthe2019accessrateinthefuture

Childcarespacesneededtoimprovetheaccessrateinthefuture

SQUAMISH’S GROWING CHILD POPULATION

ProjectedFutureNeeds

GRAPH:ProjectedChildPopula6on(Ages0-12)for2019,2021,2024,and2029.

3,894 4,1404,508

5,123

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Year 2019 Year 2021 Year 2024 Year 2029

Proj

ecte

d N

umbe

r of C

hild

ren

(Age

0-1

2)

Between 2006 and 2016, the District of Squamish grew by an average of 2.4% per year, and was one of the fastest growing communities in Canada.

During the same time period, the growth rate for children aged 0-12 was significantly higher - an average of 3.5% annual increase.

This project assumes Squamish’s child population will continue to grow by 3.5% every year for the foreseeable future.

PROJECTEDFUTURECHILDCARESPACENEEDSTwoscenariosareimaginedbelow:(1)maintainingthecurrentchildcareaccessrateof21%and(2)increasingthechildcareaccessrateto30%,asrecommendedintheSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessment&Strategy2018-2023.SCENARIO1:MAINTAINTHECURRENTACCESSRATE(21%)MaintainingSquamish’scurrentaccessrateof21%isn’tgoodenough,butmaintainingitcouldbechallenginggiventhehighaverageannualgrowthrateforchildrenaged0-12inSquamish.AsmorefamiliesmovetoSquamish,doingnothingisn’tanopOonbecausethesituaOonwillquicklygetworsethanitalreadyis.

SCENARIO2:“REACH”TARGETACCESSRATE(30%)TheSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023idenOfieda30%accessrateasa“reach”target.30%wasselectedbecauseitalignswithandslightlyexceedstheprovincialaverageof27%in2015.Although30%issignificantlylowerthanthe55%accessrateinQuebecin2016,itisanambiOoustargetthatreflectstheextensiveneedforchildcareinourcommunity.Mee6ngthereachtargetwouldrequireincreasingthenumberofspacesby88%overthenexttenyears.

Thisrowshowshowmanynewspacesareneededbyeachselectedyear(2021,2024,2029)inordertomaintainthecurrentaccessrate.

Thisrowshowshowmanynewspacesneedtobebuilteveryyear,starOngin2019,inordertomaintainthecurrentaccessratebyeachselectedyear.

Thisrowshowshowmanynewspacesareneededbyeachselectedyear(2021,2024,2029)inordertoincreasetheaccessratetotherecommended30%.

Thisrowshowshowmanynewspacesneedtobebuilteveryyear,starOngin2019,inordertoreachthetargetaccessratebyeachselectedyear.

REALITY CHECK #2Adding36spacesforinfants/toddlersoverthenext10yearsmightnotseemlikealot,butitwouldmeanadozennewfamilyhomedaycareswith3infant/toddlerspaceseach,or3newgroupdaycareswith12infant/toddlerspaceseach.

FOCUS ON INFANTS/TODDLERS

ProjectedFutureNeeds

REALITY CHECK #1 This project assumes Squamish’s child population will continue to grow by 3.5% every year for the foreseeable future. It’s worth noting that the annual growth rate for children aged 0-5 between 2006 and 2016 fluctuated significantly, but on average was actually higher: 5.2%. If this very high growth rate for young children continues, these child care space requirements could turn out to be underestimated.

Licensedspacesforinfants/toddlers(12-30months)arethehardesttocomebyinSquamish.Therearemorethantwiceasmanyfull-dayspacesforpreschoolagechildren(30-60months)thanthereareforinfants/toddlers.Thefollowingscenariosshowthenumberofinfant/toddlerspacesthatwouldbeneededtomeetthecurrentoverallaccessrateof21%andgobeyondtoachievethereachtargetof30%.

SCENARIO1:MAINTAINCURRENTACCESSRATE(21%)

SCENARIO2:“REACH”TARGETACCESSRATE(30%)

MAINTAININGBALANCENearlyhalfoftheinfantandtoddlerspacescurrentlyinSquamishareinfamilyhomedaycares.Familychildcarelicensespermitupto7children.DependingontheagecomposiOon,provincialregulaOonsspecifythattypicallyonly4ofthe7spacescanbeusedbychildrenunder48months,andonly2ofthosespacescanbeforchildrenunder24months.Asaresult,familydaycaresneedtohavearangeofagesofchildrenintheircareinordertofilltheirspacesandmakeitaviablebusiness.Inordertosupportthesesmallbusinesses,whicharesoessenOalforinfantandtoddlercareinSquamish,thereneedstobebalanceinthewaythatnewspacesareopenedinthecommunity.Forexample,iftoomanypreschoolagespacesbecomeavailable,ithasthepotenOaltomakeitharderforfamilydaycarestofillalloftheirspaces,whichcouldmeanalossofinfantandtoddlerspacesiffamilydaycarescan’tmakeendsmeet.

Whenmakingplansfornewchildcarespaces,needsforeachagegroup/licensetypeshouldbeconsidered,sincethecurrentaccessratesvarygreatlybygroup,andupseangthebalancecoulduninten6onallymakethesitua6onworsefortheagesforwhichcareismostneeded.

REALITY CHECK #393infant/toddlerspacesoverthenext10yearswouldrequiremorethan30newfamilyhomedaycareswith3infant/toddlerspaceseach,or8newgroupdaycareswith12infant/toddlerspaceseach.

MOST WANTED!

STRATEGICACTIONS

HighestPriorityAcJonsIdenJfied

&Updated

AddiJonalAcJonsProposed

44ac%onsareproposedintheSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023.Thefollowing13HighestPriorityAc1onshavebeeniden%fiedasneedinganextranudgeoranintermediarystepinordertomoveforward.TheSquamishChildCareAc%onPlanwillfocusonthesepriorityac%ons.Onlytangible,ac%onableitemshavebeenselected.

Thefollowingtablesincludeupdatesandnextstepsforeachhighestpriorityac%on,categorizedbyac%ontype:

•  Policy&Planning•  Partnerships&Collabora%on•  Informa%onSharing•  DirectSupport

PriorityAc1onTimeframe

KeyPartners

Nov2019Update

NextSteps Impact

1.3Settargetsforchildcarespacesinneighbourhoods/nodesandworkwithdevelopersinthedesignandbuildofin-kindchildcarespaces.Developapolicyframeworkforensuringspacesarededicatedforchildcareandrentedtonot-for-profitchildcareprovidersinperpetuity,andexplorepartnershipstoopera%onalizethesepolicies.

Shortterm

DOS,developmentcommunity,SSCS,childcareproviders

•  Targetsupdated.

•  MapstobeprovidedbyVCH(inprepara%on).

•  Developframeworkfordedica%on,rentalterms,explorepartnerships.

•  Lookforfutureopportuni%es.

•  SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#1.

High

1.4Reduceand/orremovebarrierstostar1ng/expandingachildcarefacilitythrough:•  ReviewingcurrentDistrictpoliciesandzoning,

communica%ngbuildingcoderequirementsandaddressingbarrierswhereverpossible;

•  Streamliningpaperworkrequirementsforchildcareproviders;and,

•  Encouragingstratacouncilstopermitresiden%alchildcarefacili%esintheirbylaws.

Shortterm,on-going

DOS,VCH,childcareproviders,communityagencies

•  DOSrequirementsunderreview.

•  GuidetoDOSrequirementsunderprepara%on.

Reviewdra[guidewithregulators(DOSandVCH)andcommunitytofinalize.

Low

2.1Increasechildcarespacesacrossallagegroupsandchildcaretypes(i.e.,infant-toddler,childrenwithextrasupportneeds,before-anda[er-school,summerop%ons).

On-going

DOS,VCH,developercommunity,childcareproviders

Dra[projec%onsandtargetsforspecificagegroupsprepared.

•  WorkwithCCRRandproviderstostrategize.

•  Lookforfutureopportuni%eswithdevelopmentreview.

•  SeeAddi1onalAc1onsPosters#1and#2.

High

2.2Priori1zenewchildcarefacili1esinneighbourhoodswithhighchildpopula1ons,aswellasaroundexis1ngandfutureplannedfamilyservicehubs,schools,senior’scentres,parksandBrennanParkRecrea1onCentretocreateandstrengthenchildcarehubsacrossSquamish

On-going

DOS MapstobeprovidedbyVCH(inprepara%on).

Createpoliciessuppor%ngopportuni%esforco-loca%on.

Low

2.4AdvancetheCommunityAmenityContribu1onframeworkwhereindevelopersbuildECEworkeraffordablehousingunitsheldforthepurposeinperpetuity.

On-going

DOS,developmentcommunity

DOSreviewoffeasibilityandrequirementstoadvanceworkforcehousing.

ModeratetoHigh

2.6Researchbestprac1cesforflexible,short-term/drop-inandevening/extendedhourchildcareop1ons.

Mediumterm

DOS,ChildCareStrategyimplementa%oncommi_ee

Reviewingprogramsinothercommuni%es.

•  Exploreop%onsfordrop-incarewithRecrea%onServices.

•  SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#3.

Low

Squamish Child Care Needs Assessment and Strategy

2018 to 2023 Prepared by SPARC BC

StrategicAc%ons–HighestPriorityCHILD CARE NEEDS ASSESSMENT & STRATEGY 2018-2023

PolicyandPlanning

Addi1onalAc1ons:Someofthepriorityac%onsintheSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023needmoredetailoranintermediarystep.PleaseseethededicatedexplanatorypostersforAddi%onalAc%ons1-3.

STRATEGICACTIONS–HIGHESTPRIORITY

PriorityAc1onTimeframe

KeyPartners

Nov2019Update

NextSteps Impact

1.12Ini%atediscussionstodevelopachildcarepartnershipwithSchoolDistrict48thatmayinclude:•  Colloca%ngchildcarespacesat/withschools

throughcrea%veapproachesandjointmanagement;

•  Developingacatchmentareasystemforchildcarethathelpseaseyoungchildren’stransi%onintokindergarten;

•  StandardizingwagesacrossSchoolDistrictandECEtoreduceECEstaffloss;and,

•  Designa%ngachildcarechampionateachschooltoimplementthepartnershipattheschoollevel.

Shortterm,on-going

DOS,SD48,SSCS,communityagencies,childcareproviders

DOS,SD48,SSCSpartnershipisadvancingthroughprovincialfundingprovidedforchildcarefacilityatValleycliffeElementary.

•  Determinehowbesttomoveforwardforfutureopportuni%es.

•  Expandconversa%ontoincludeallsuggestedtopics.

High

1.13Brokerrela1onshipsbetweenorganiza1onswithunderusedspacesandbefore-anda^er-schoolchildcareproviders(e.g.,churches,ChiefCentre,senior’scentres)

On-going

DOS,SSCS,CCRR,communityagencies,childcareproviders

SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#2.

High

2.20Reducetransporta1onbarriersforbefore-anda^er-schoolcarebyofferingprogramsatschoolsthroughajoint-useagreementwithSD48.

Shortterm,on-going

DOS,SD48 SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#2.

High

PartnershipsandCollabora%on

PriorityAc1onTimeframe

KeyPartners

Nov2019Update

NextSteps Impact

2.13Consideralterna1vestofirst-comefirst-serveregistra1on,par%cularlyforbefore-anda[er-schoolandsummerchildcareop%ons.

Shortterm

Childcareproviders,SSCS,communityagencies,Recrea%onservices

SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#2.

Low

2.15Reducefinancialbarrierstopar1cipateincurrentsummercareop1ons(e.g.,gearrequirements,ou%ngs).

Shortterm

Recrea%onservices

SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#2.

Low

2.17Improveprogrammingforchildrenages7-12years-oldandexploreopportuni%esfor“middle-years”programsandservicesaswellasayoungeryouthcentreorspaces.

Shortterm,on-going

Childcareproviders,Recrea%onservices,DOS,SD48

SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#2.

High

DirectSupport

PriorityAc1onTimeframe

KeyPartners

Nov2019Update

NextSteps Impact

1.16Developcentralizedresourcesforwould-beandcurrentchildcareproviderstoreducebarrierstostar%ngand/orexpandingchildcarefacili%es(e.g.,how-toguide,website,adesignatedstaffresource/processnavigator).

Shortterm,on-going

DOS,VCH,childcareproviders

•  GuidetoDOSrequirementsinprepara%on.

•  Newchildcareprojectpageestablishedwithresourcelinks(www.squamish.ca/childcare).

Reviewdra[guidewithregulators(DOSandVCH)andcommunitytofinalize.

Low

Informa%onSharing

IMPACT MEASUREMENT

Addi%onalAc%on#1

Inordertoproac%velyplanforchildcareandpopula%ongrowth,thisproposallinkstheimpactofnewresiden%aldevelopmentwithchildcarerequirements.

Squamishisgrowingfastandthisgrowthisverylikelytocon%nue.Whatneedstobebe_erunderstoodisthedirectimpactoflargerproposedresiden%aldevelopmentsonchildcarespaces.

Proposal:CreateaSquamish-specificformulaorcalculatortoes%matethenumberofchildrenthateachnewlargedevelopmentislikelytoaddtoourcommunity.Whatthisachieves:Thefirststeptoaddressingaproblemistomeasureit,andcloselykeeptrackofhowthingsarechangingover%me.Increasingunderstandingbymeasuringtheimpactofnewdevelopmentisrequiredtoaddressthechallenge.ThereisamechanisminBCforlocalgovernmentstoworkwithdeveloperstoaddressthenega%veimpactsofdevelopment–CommunityAmenityContribu%ons.Withmoreinforma%on,Councilwouldhavemoreflexibilitytoconsiderdetailedrequirementsforchildcarespaceprovisionaspartofamenitynego%a%onsduringlanddevelopment.WhoandWhen:ASquamish-specificformulawouldneedtobecreatedtocalculatetheimpactonchildcareofnewproposeddevelopment.Thees%matescollectedwouldneedtobeaggregatedperiodically.Cost:Li_le.Withasimpleformula,itwouldn’ttakemuchefforttouseameasurementtoolfornewlargedevelopments.Impact:Low.It’safirststepthatcouldleadtomore.

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Impactmeasurement

Addi1onalAc1on#1isproposedasanintermediarysteptohelpachievethefollowingac%onsfromSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023:

Settargetsforchildcarespacesinneighbourhoods/nodesandworkwithdevelopersinthedesignandbuildofin-kindchildcarespaces.

Increasechildcarespacesacrossallagegroupsandchildcaretypes.

1.3

2.1

EXPLORE AFTER-SCHOOL CARE POSSIBILITIES

Addi%onalAc%on#2

Schoolagekidsareagrowingpopula%onwhoneedmorea[er-schoolop%ons.Thisproposalisafirststeptowardincreasingwhat’savailable,andmakingitmorea_rac%veandaccessibleformoreschoolagechildren.

Proposal:WorkwiththeDistrictofSquamishRecrea%onDepartmentandSeatoSkySchoolDistrict#48tobrainstormideasforimprovingaccesstohigh-quality,affordablea[er-schoolprogramming,ideallywithtransporta%on.Exploreanyotherpossibleop%onsforunder-usedspacesthatcouldbeused.Othercommuni%eshavefoundsolu%ons–maybethere’saSquamish-specificsolu%onthatwouldprovideschoolagekidswithimprovedaccesstocare.Whatthisachieves:Exploringpossibili%esisjustastart.Ifsomethingmanageableandaffordablecanbeiden%fied,itcouldbeaneasywaytoincreasethechildcareaccessrateforschoolagechildren.WhoandWhen:Op%onsandfeasibilityfora[er-schoolprogramswillbeexploredaspartoftheSquamishChildCareAc%onPlan(completeSpring2020).ItrequiressupportfromtheDistrictofSquamish(Recrea%on),mostlikelySchoolDistrict#48,andanyotherpoten%alpartnersiden%fied.Fornow,thisproposestalkingaboutideas;implementa%oncouldbemorechallenging,dependingonthesolu%onsiden%fied.Cost:Unknown.Moreresearchisneeded.Impact:Low(fornow).Ifthere’sagreatideaoutthereandsomestrongpartnershipsarepossible,implementa%oncouldhaveaveryhighimpact.Thewaythatthechildpopula%oninSquamishisgrowingmeanstherearemoreandmoreschoolagechildreneveryyear–needsareincreasingrapidlyandnowisthe%metostartsomethingnewtoaddressthosegrowingneeds.

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ExploreA[er-SchoolCarePossibili%es

Addi1onalAc1on#2isproposedasasteptowardmee%ngthefollowingac%onsfromtheSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023:

Brokerrela%onshipswithorganiza%onswithunderusedspaces.

Increasechildcarespacesacrossallagegroupsandchildcaretypes.

Consideralterna%vestofirst-comefirst-serveregistra%on.

Reducefinancialbarrierstopar%cipateincurrentsummercareop%ons.

Improveprogrammingforchildrenages7-12.

Reducetransporta%onbarriersforbefore-anda[er-schoolcare.

1.13

2.1

2.20

2.13

2.15

2.17

EXPLORE DROP-IN CARE POSSIBILITIES

Addi%onalAc%on#3

Manylocalgovernmentsofferchild-mindingservicesforinfantsandtoddlersatreccentres.Mostrequirethataguardianispresentinthebuildingincasetheyareneeded.Thisproposesexploringop%onsfordrop-inchildcareatBrennanPark.

ExploreDrop-inChildCarePossibili%es

Proposal:Explorefeasibilityofofferingafewhoursperweekofchild-mindingatBrennanPark.Ifit’spossible,asmalltrialtodeterminehours,pricing,staffingneeds,etc.couldbeproposed.Somecommuni%esrequireregistra%onforchildmindingaheadof%me,butthenallowdrop-inifspacepermits.Whatthisachieves:Ifwecangetashort-term/drop-inprogramgoing,itwouldgiveparentssome%metofeellikethemselves–getsomeexercise,relax,makesomecallstodaycares...Itcouldprovideabitofstressrelief.WhoandWhen:AfeasibilityassessmentcouldbeproposedaspartoftheSquamishChildCareAc%onPlan(completeSpring2020).Ifit’sfeasible,apilotprojectcouldbestartedshortlya[er.Cost:Dependsonuser-fees.Itwouldbebesttoreducefinancialbarriersandmaketheofferingaccessibleforallfamilieswhoneedit.Impact:Low.It’sagesturethatacknowledgesthestrainchildcareshortageputsonSquamishfamiliesandoffersasmallwaytorelievepressure.

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Addi1onalAc1on#3isproposedasamore-detailedsteptowardmee1ngthefollowingac%onfromSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023:

Researchbestprac%cesforflexible,short-term/drop-inandevening/extendedhourchildcareop%ons.

2.6

“Drop-in care would be great. Just to feel like myself for a short amount of time.”