future of uk winter oilseed rape production

www.adas.co.uk

Future of UK winter oilseed rape production

James Clarke & Susan Twining

ADAS UK LtdPrepared for:

Crop Protection Association

Agricultural Industries Confederation

July 2009

Key messages

Winter oilseed rape provides a major benefit to UK agriculture

Major benefit to farmers’ rotations Gross margin, spreads fixed costs and provides

weed controlAlternatives will result in loss of profitability

Spring crops already viewed as less profitable and unacceptable options

Farmers and agronomists must act now to ensure this valuable crop is still available

Adopt best practice and participate in stewardship Protect water from herbicides and other pesticides

Skip to… presentation mapFuture of UK

winter oilseed rape production

UK OilseedRape

Production

OSR & pesticides

Impacts

Area &importance

Production &Prices

Markets Farming Trading Environment

Weed & PestControl

Rotations

Margins

Pesticide UseThreats to

OSR pesticideavailability

Inputs

Outputs

Protein

Carbon

Nitrogen

Biodiversity

Biodiesel

Summary

Contents

UK Oilseed Rape Production Threats to OSR pesticide availability Impacts

On farming On trading On the environment

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UK oilseed rape production

Area and importance Prices Uses

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Year

To

tal O

SR

are

a (t

ho

usa

nd

ha)

Trends in UK OSR area (winter & spring)

Source: Defra statistics

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Winter / Spring split 2004-2009

Source: Defra statistics

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

(est)

Year (2008 & 2009 provisionsal )

UK

% w

inte

r &

sp

rin

g O

SR

are

a (t

ho

usa

nd

ha)

Spring OSR Winter OSR

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Oilseed rape in the rotation

Wheat47%

Oilseed Rape13% Spring Barley

13%

Other Oilseeds

0%Oats3%

Sugar Beet3%

Other Stockfeed

1% Other Crops1%

Other Cereals1%

Potatoes3%Peas & Beans

3%

Winter Barley9%

Maize3%

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Oilseed rape in the rotation

Wheat47%

Oilseed Rape13%

Spring Barley13%

Other Oilseeds

0%Oats3%

Sugar Beet3%

Other Stockfeed

1% Other Crops1%

Other Cereals1%

Potatoes3%Peas & Beans

3%

Winter Barley9%

Maize3%

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Oilseed rape is an important break crop

Field Beans12%

Field Peas2%

Potatoes14%

Oilseed rape57%

Sugar Beet12%

Linseed2%

Others1%

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Source:HGCA

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

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4.0

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Year

Yie

ld (

ton

nes

/ h

a)

OSR yield trends

Source: Defra statistics

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UK oilseed production and prices

Source: Defra statistics

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

1984

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2009

(est)

Pro

du

ctio

n (

'000

t)HomeBack

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UK oilseed production and prices

Source: Defra statistics

UK oilseed production and prices

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

1984

1985

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'000

t)

0

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Pri

ce (

£/t)

Production Average market price

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OSR markets in UKExports,

10%

Crushing, 85%

Biodiesel, 3%

Specialist Uses, 2%

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Vegetable oil prices

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Protein prices

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Oilseed rape and pesticides

Pesticide use Threats to pesticide availability

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% of crop area treated with pesticides

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Threats to pesticide availability

EU legislation Thematic Strategy

Revision of 91/414/EEC Achievement of Annex 1 listing by 2010

Water Framework Directive (WFD) Resistance Commercial pressures on existing and new

products Pesticide manufacturers Food industry

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Oilseed rape active substances at risk

Revision of 91/414/EEC

Annex 1 listing WFD – chemical

WFD - ecological

cyproconazoleprochlorazcarbetamidenapropamidepropachlorquinmeractau fluvalinatezeta-cypermethrinmetaldehyde

carbetamideclopyralidglyphosatemetaldehydemetazachlorpropyzamide

carbendazim cyproconazole flusilazole glufosinate metconazole tebuconazole

carbendazimchlorothalonilchlorpyriphosinsecticides

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Impacts

Farming Trading Biodiversity

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Impacts on farming

Weed and pest control Rotations Margins

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Key losses 1 – black-grass control WFD – propyzamide,

carbetamide, metazachlor

Vital for control of black-grass

40% rape area affected

Major impact on yield (36% yield loss)

Equivalent to 280,000t loss production

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Loss of black-grass controlKey implications

OSR yields could be reduced by up to 1.2t/ha Up to £390/ha in lost gross margin – 75%

Yield loss from competition, increased herbicide costs Few alternative crops on heavy land Rotational implications are even bigger

Additional cost in wheat - £300/ha More ploughing, delayed sowing, yield loss, increased

herbicide costs Spread of work load and early entry for cereals lost

NB where black-grass is a problem

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Secondary Loss – up to £300/ha from winter

cereal margins

Two hits are greater than one!

Primary Loss – up to £390/ha from current OSR

margins

NB where black-grass is a problem

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Key losses 2 - slugs WFD & Annex 1 listing

– Metaldehyde Already under

scrutiny Complete crop losses

a possibility if lost Typically 3.5% yield

loss Replacements

(methiocarb) available – environmental & cost implications

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Loss of slug control

Average yields could be reduced by up to 0.2t/ha

Up to £60/ha in lost gross margin – 15% Alternative methods are more expensive

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Other areas of concern Revision of 91/414/EEC

– metconazole & tebuconazole

Used as PGRs as well as fungicides

Can provide additional 0.2 t/ha yield response in absence of disease.

On individual crops this could cause losses of £60/ha

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Alternative crops

Heavy land suited to winter cropping Winter field beans Spring cropping Fallow

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Rotational implications Main break crop in arable

rotations In black-grass areas provides

cleaning crop

If black-grass herbicides lost & control reduced;

Less favourable in black-grass infested fields

Alternative break crops (beans, spring cropping or fallow) may be sought

Increase in amount of ploughing to bury weed seeds

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Impacts on margin compared to current WOSR on fields with black-grass

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

WFDWOSR W Beans Sp OSR Sp Beans Peas Sp Barley Linseed Fallow

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

Margin Weeds SlugsPGR Aphids Overhead costs

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Impacts on UK trading

Inputs Outputs Protein Biodiesel

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Impacts on trading - inputs

Value Net change Seed £21 million Redistribution Pesticides £80 million Redistribution Fertiliser £76 million £57 million

Based on switch to field beans and linseed Switch to fallow would have larger impacts in all

areas

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Impacts on trading - outputs

Value Crop £400 million

Oil £480 million Rape meal £110 million

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Sources of protein for livestock

Protein Source

% Protein 12 month moving total

(Mar 09) thousand

tonnes

%

Soya meal 44-50 1,152 43

Rape Meal 34-36 733 28

Sunflower Meal

27-30 253 10

Other oilseed meals

435 16

Field Beans 23-26 63 2

Field Peas 20-24 25 1

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Cost of protein

Ex port UK average

Spot price Price per 1% protein

Hypro soya meal

£312/t £6.24

Rape meal £167/t £4.77

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Bio Diesel,

84%

Bio Ethanol,

16%

Bio Gas, 0%

Biofuel use in UK 2008/09

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Soya, 41%

Uncertain origin, 3%

Unknown origin, 4%

Tallow, 10%

Sunflower, 0%

Palm, 12%

Oilseed rape, 30%

Feedstock for UK biodiesel production

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Country of origin of oilseed rape feedstock

Other, 2 Canada, 7

France, 3

Germany, 55

Ukraine, 1

UK, 7

USA, 6

Unknown, 19

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Impacts on the environment

Carbon emissions Nitrogen Biodiversity

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Carbon Emissions

Emissions from; Production of raw materials (fertilisers,

pesticides, seed) Fuel usage in transport of raw materials & final

product Fuel usage in tractors & other farm operations Soils as a result of nitrogen application & residue

incorporation From disposal of waste (plastics & packaging)

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Carbon impacts of OSR production

Large amounts of N applied High emissions involved in production of

N N2O released as a result of application Nitrogen approximately = 50% of total

emissions

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Carbon emissions from arable crops

Crop t CO2e / ha Yield t/ha t CO2e / t

Winter oilseed rape 4.6 3.2 1.45

Winter feed wheat 4.6 8.3 0.55

Winter bread wheat 4.8 7.5 0.64

Winter beans 0.6 6.6 0.09

Spring feed wheat 1.0 5.8 0.15

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GHG savings of biodiesel from different feedstock compared to diesel

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Autumn nitrate levels by previous crop

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Biodiversity

Nesting sites reed bunting

Feeding on stubbles and crops yellowhammer, linnet

But also good for pigeons!

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Summary – winter oilseed rape has a…

Farming Major benefit to farmers rotations

Gross margin, spreads fixed costs and provides weed control

Trade Positive effects on UK balance of payments Significant requirement for N and crop protectionEnvironment Good crop cover in autumn to reduce nutrient

leaching and soil erosion risks Value to birds by providing feed and nest sites

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www.adas.co.uk

Future of UK winter oilseed rape production

James Clarke & Susan Twining

ADAS UK LtdPrepared for:

Crop Protection Association

Agricultural Industries Confederation

July 2009

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