fuel cycle simulation as€¦ · consortium for verification technology workshop: oct 15-16. 2015...

Fuel Cycle Simulation as a Virtual CVT Testbed

Paul Wilson, Meghan McGarryU. Wisconsin-MadisonCVT Annual MeetingOctober 15-16, 2015

Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015

FY15 Status Update

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● Focus on proof-of-principle● Toy problems to demonstrate underlying capability● Basis for expanding collaborations across CVT● Three primary examples

○ Behavior modeling for undeclared activities○ Simulated signal time series for anomaly detection○ Spatiotemporal metrics for fuel cycle monitoring

Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015

Facility Behavior Models for Material Diversion

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EnrichmentFacility

Light Water Reactor Fleet

Undeclared Consumer

LEU

Natural U

● Demonstration with enrichment facility○ Willing to supply HEU when requested○ Operating near technical capacity○ Disrupts flow of LEU

Natural Uranium Source

HEU

Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015

Facility Behavior Models for Material Diversion

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● Light water reactor fleet requests randomly fluctuating, Normally distributed quantities

● Varying request behaviors for HEU consumer

● Assume supplied LEU throughput is declared signal

Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015

Simulated Data Streams for Anomaly Detection● Simple approaches are possible for signal processing

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Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015

Spatiotemporal Models for Fuel Cycle Monitoring

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● Some signals are detected in environment at a distance○ Effluents & emissions○ Transportation patterns

● Superposition of signals from different sources● Requires

○ Location of facilities in space○ Model for signal propagation○ Method to superpose signals from multiple facilities

Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015

Spatiotemporal Models for Fuel Cycle Monitoring

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Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015

Spatiotemporal Models for Fuel Cycle Monitoring

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Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015

FY16 - Improved Facility Modeling

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● Develop more complex models of agent behavior○ Review historical record○ Mechanisms for responding to external stimuli to

behavior■ Inspections■ Detection

● Compare multi-mode signals and signatures from multi-national facilities with those from national facilities

Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015

FY16 - Integrating Across Thrusts

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Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015

FY16 - Integrating Across Thrusts

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● Thrust 1: (Glaser) - Nuclear Archeology - FMCT○ Reduce uncertainty in fissile material inventories from

(newly) released facility operation histories● Thrust 2: (Hero) - Data Analysis Techniques

○ Add range of “signals” from facility operation○ Generate coordinated time series of mixed mode signals

● Thrust 3: (???) - Virtual testing of safeguards○ Provide realistic source spectra from facility processes in

transition● Thrust 6:

○ Develop simulations for use in courses

Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015

Acknowledgements

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● This work was supported, in part, by the Consortium for Verification Technology under the Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration award number DE-NA0002534.

● The Cyclus project also benefits from support from the Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy via the NEUP program.

● The Cyclus project has also benefited from student fellowships from the National Science Foundation, Department of Energy (NEUP), and Department of Homeland Security, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

● The Cyclus project is a multi-institution open source collaboration that includes contributions from many individuals supported by these and other organizations

Questions?

fuelcycle.orgcnerg-cvt@lists.wisc.edu