from the ridiculous to the sublime? lessons from 2001 for the next census sheila ritchie policy unit...

From the Ridiculous to the From the Ridiculous to the Sublime? Sublime?

Lessons from 2001 for the next Lessons from 2001 for the next CensusCensus

Sheila Ritchie

Policy Units.ritchie@manchester.gov.uk

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From the Ridiculous……….From the Ridiculous……….

• 2001 Census background• Address database• Targeting enumeration• Field management• Community liaison

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2001 Census background2001 Census background

What went wrong?What went wrong?

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2001 Addresses & 2001 Addresses & Household SpacesHousehold Spaces

• Census household spaces 186,300

• Electoral Register addresses 196,900

• Council Tax addresses193,800

• Census Matching Study 14,000

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2001 One Number Census2001 One Number Census

1. Census population 392,8002. ONC-based MYE 392,9003. Revised MYE 398,4004. Provisional MYE 418,6005. Final MYE 422,900• Change between 1 and 5 =

30,100

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Manchester Unrevised Mid-Year Estimates 1981 to 2001

190.0

200.0

210.0

220.0

230.0

240.0

Males Fem ales Linear (Males) Linear (Fem ales)

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Manchester Final Revised Mid-Year Estimates 1981 to 2001

190.0

200.0

210.0

220.0

230.0

240.0

Males Females Linear (Females) Linear (Males)

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Manchester Unrevised Change MYE 1981-2001

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1981 1991 2001

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Manchester Final Revised Change MYE 1981-2001

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Thou

sand

s

1981 1991 2001

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Address DatabaseAddress Database

Lesson OneLesson One

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2001 Address matching 2001 Address matching problemsproblems

• Address base for the Census was 1998 Addresspoint

• Manchester experienced rapid change between 1998 and 2001

• No single definitive address data set suitable for Census use

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2011 Address Lists 12011 Address Lists 1• Researching:

A complete and up to-date address list is vital to deliver Census forms and even more so when using post-out.

ONS take the lead in partnership with LAs/Local Government Association to provide guidelines for LAs on administrative address based databases.

Include the Local Land and Property Gazetteer (LLPG), Electoral Register, Council Tax Register (CTR), Council & Registered Social Landlords (RSL) & Communal Establishments.

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2011 Address Lists 22011 Address Lists 2

• Researching:LAs need to produce nationally consistent

robust address databases.New improved LA address databases can be

used in conjunction with ONS address databases.

Feedback following the rehearsal will give LAs the opportunity to adjust their databases, provide ONS with the most up-to-date list for Census Managers as close as possible to Census night.

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2011 Address Lists 32011 Address Lists 3• Communal Establishments:

LAs with high numbers of students, in conjunction with academics (who also have a vested interest) and educational establishments could produce lists of halls with number of bed spaces and expected occupancy rates on Census night.

Educational establishments could produce lists of students’ term-time addresses and Council Tax could indicate wholly student households.

Similar processes over Communal Establishments should be possible with other institutions such as prisons with the Home Office, armed forces camps with the MoD, and hospitals with the NHS.

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Targeting EnumerationTargeting Enumeration

Lesson TwoLesson Two

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2001 CCS Sampled Postcodes2001 CCS Sampled Postcodes

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2001 Targeting Enumeration 12001 Targeting Enumeration 1• Hard-to-Count in 2001:

1991 Census data used to define the areas was out-dated.

The combining of HtC areas 1 and 2 reduced the usefulness of having 3 categories.

The selection of HtC areas for the CCS seemed to miss areas we would designate HtC.

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2001 Targeting Enumeration 22001 Targeting Enumeration 2• Problem HtC people:The most difficult group, missing in both 1991

and 2001, were young men in deprived inner city housing estates and HMOs.

Particularly from Caribbean, white and mixed ethnicity in these areas.

These young men consciously avoided the Census and the CCS.

They make no distinction between national and local government and avoid both.

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2011 Targeting Enumeration 12011 Targeting Enumeration 1• Problem HtC people:

We have the same problems trying to contact them as enumerators do.

We need to target foreign nationals, students, immigrants (legal and illegal), asylum seekers and visitor switchers in hostels, shared houses and HMOs.

HMOs can’t be identified by counting bells or letter boxes.

The Electoral Register (ER), though not perfect, is probably better at identifying HMOs.

Recruiting enumerators from these communities could also help.

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2011 Targeting Enumeration 22011 Targeting Enumeration 2• Identifying HtC Areas:• LAs can identify HtC areas through the

systematic collection of information on small areas. Council Tax can provide information on turnover

rates, second and vacant homes, all student houses and County Court Judgements;

Housing can provide data on HMOs, ASBOs and hard-to-let dwellings;

Manchester Benefits Service can provide data on welfare benefits;

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2011 Targeting Enumeration 32011 Targeting Enumeration 3• Cont….Crime and Disorder Team can provide data on

crimes such as robbery by police beat;Education Department can provide data on

truancies and languages;Social Services can provide data on communal

establishments and meals on wheels;Frontline staff can provide knowledge of an

area anecdotally, e.g.: election canvassers; area housing officers; social workers; street cleaners and bin men.

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2011 Targeting Enumeration 42011 Targeting Enumeration 4• HtC areas:

Post out and post back will not work in areas where avoiders tend to live.

They will still need enumeration in person.And still there will be avoiders.A more prominent threat of prosecution actually

enforced might encourage them. Imputation will still be necessary.As will adjustments to the MYE.

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Field ManagementField Management

Lesson ThreeLesson Three

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Field Management 1Field Management 1• Recruitment of field staff for HtC:

ONS take the lead in setting guidelines for nationally consistent recruitment through LAs.

LA can recruit Census managers, supervisors and enumerators, using the same methods used to recruit election staff for polling day and canvassers for ER.

Use council staff, and direct recruitment of people from community groups.

LAs are best placed to recruit staff that know the area and fit the same profile as people who live there, especially in relation to race, creed and language.

Field staff should be recruited earlier than in 2001, better training and paid incentives to find addresses and people.

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Field Management 2Field Management 2• Coverage of HtC:

Enumerators delivering forms in HtC areas to be given maps as well as address lists and rewarded for every address and household they find not on their list.

Increasing the response rate from the HtC areas should not depend solely on the enumerator’s commitment to an area.

Enumerating the worst HtC areas should not be left to an individual enumerator, who might not like to admit fear of going out alone at night, should work in pairs or group blitzing an area together.

Enumeration of communal establishments might achieve better results if covered by enumerators rather than by post-out.

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Field Management 3Field Management 3• Enumeration of HtC:

It is important that enumerators keep good records preferably electronically.

Recording addresses as derelict or demolished must always be done and checked by supervisors.

Some dwellings may look derelict when they are not. A complete record of residential addresses, whether

occupied, vacant, or communal should be made.Dummy records should be collected for all types of non-

response, not just residential occupied or vacant dwellings.

Dummy records should be collected for non-residential commercial, demolished, derelict and non-existent addresses so every address is identified with an appropriate record.

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Field Management 4Field Management 4• Help Centres for HtC:

Many non-English speaking people are unlikely to contact call centres.

Their English may not be good, they may feel peripheral to British society, they may fear authority, and an HMO may only have one payphone.

LAs can open up local form completion centres in schools, libraries and other council offices in the worst HtC areas and areas with high proportions of ethnic minorities.

LA staff and volunteers from community and religious groups can be trained to assist respondents to fill in the forms and even collect and post them.

This could be done through concentrated publicity in these areas, directed at groups of people who do not consciously try to avoid the Census.

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Community LiaisonCommunity Liaison

Lesson FourLesson Four

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Community Liaison 1Community Liaison 1

• In 2011, LAs should invest their expertise, local knowledge and staff resources, as it is in their own interest to do so.2011 Census Working Group.The chair of the CWG will be the CLO.The CLO will be a person of authority. The secretary of the CWG will assist the

CLO and be a Census expert.

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Community Liaison 2Community Liaison 2• 2011 Census Working Group will cover:

Research and statistics: Census questions, geography, outputs, disclosure control; evaluation;

Address list: residential property data, address database, new build, demolitions, vacancies, second homes, communal establishments;

Targeting enumeration: administrative data, frontline experience;

Data Collection: fieldwork, recruitment, networks, community groups;

Publicity: Manchester People, local press and media, advertising.

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Community Liaison 3Community Liaison 3• 2011 CWG can draw on expertise:

Chief Executives: Elections Office; Crime and Disorder Team; Youth Offending Team, Service Improvement & Inclusion Team; Translation and Interpretation; Voluntary Sector and Grants; Area Co-ordination; Property; Press Office; M4 Print; Regeneration Programmes; Planning Development Control, Planning Strategy and Building Control;

Children, Families and Social Care: Early Years & Play; Youth Service; Family support; Social Work; Health & Social Care (elderly); Adult Division; Manchester Advice; Asylum Seekers & Refugees; Mental Health; Disabilities; and Care Establishments;

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Community Liaison 4Community Liaison 4• Cont…..

Corporate Services: Benefits & Council Tax; Valuation & Property;

Education: Young People’s Council; Diversity & Inclusion; Children’s Centres; Nurseries; Schools; Research & Statistics; and Adult Education;

Environment & Operational Services: Refuse Collection & Street Cleaning;

Housing: Estate Management; Sheltered Housing Wardens; Neighbourhood Wardens; Local Services Teams; On Call Advisers; Tenant Participation; Supported Housing; Private Sector; Rent Recovery; Information & Research; and Homelessness;

Libraries: Local Groups; and Community services.

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Community Liaison 5Community Liaison 5• Publicity internal:

Publicity needs to highlight how the Census results relate to the services that the public receive.

As well as services they may not receive such as education and meals-on-wheels.

LAs can circulate ONS flyers and publicity material to voluntary, community and charitable organisations.

Through libraries, schools, and other council offices and council run community and children’s centres.

Through Council & RSL housing staff regularly visiting housing estates.

To all council staff (MCC employs about 26 thousand people).

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Community Liaison 6Community Liaison 6• Publicity external:

LA Press Office to the local media and through council websites and publications.

Local community radio stations and many ethnic minority newspapers, and religious organisations can do a lot to convince ethnic minority people about the importance of Census information.

Simple plain English Guidance Notes should be provided for local Councillors, schoolteachers, religious groups/priests, community workers and front line workers on how to promote the benefits of the Census.

ONS/LAs can provide speakers trained in the methodology and importance of the Census to talk to any organisation that requests a speaker.

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Community Liaison 7Community Liaison 7• External Partners:

Local voluntary, community and charitable groups;

Local business organisations/Chamber of Commerce;

GM Police and prison;NHS Health Authority/PCT (through the MJHU);Universities and educational establishments;Religious groups and places of worship;Local press.

To the Sublime……….?To the Sublime……….?

wait and see

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Thank You to:

• ONS:– Staff too numerous to mention and papers:– Consultation on 2011 Census: a proposed design for

England and Wales (ONS October 2003). – Working in Partnership with local Authorities on the 2011

Census. (ONS Advisory Group Paper CLIP (04) 01 November 2004).

• CCSR @ Manchester University:– Ludi Simpson and Ed Fieldhouse for invaluable advice.