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From Physical Processes to Sustainability Science – Progresses of Monsoon Asia

Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS)

Ailikun MAIRS IPO

Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

CLIVAR AAMP12 meeting, 13-14 Sep., Nanjing, China

Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study

The vision of MAIRS is “To significantly advance understanding of the interactions

between the human-natural components of the overall environment in the monsoon Asian

region, and implications for the global earth system, in order to support strategies for

sustainable development. “

Promote new researches in global change sciences Initiate new research projects nationally and internationally Provide broad platform to show the visibility of Asian climate change research Coordinate integrated studies among different institutes and stakeholders Capacity building on observations, analysis and modeling.

MAIRS in the Region

MAIRS Research Themes

1. Rapid urbanization in coastal region 2.Vulnerable dryland 3.Multiple stresses in high mountain 4.Modeling and observation

What are the major drivers for change and variability?

What are the vulnerabilities of communities and ecosystems?

What are the options for responding to those vulnerabilities?

Key Questions for Themes

1, MAIRS Urban Themes

UN Population Report 2007

Urbanization and Industrialization: By 2008, more than half of human live in cities

China Urbanization: Current and Future 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Population 1307.56 1360.00 1440.00 1470.00 1470.00 1440.00Urbanization rate 43% 49% 63% 70% 74% 79%Urban Population 562.12 666.40 907.20 1029.00 1087.80 1137.60Person per Household 2.96 2.88 2.80 2.75 2.70 2.65Urban Household 189.91 221.94 288.00 336.76 364.78 380.38Rural Population 745.44 693.60 532.80 441.00 382.20 302.40Person per Household 4.08 3.80 3.50 3.40 3.20 3.00Rural Household 182.71 189.68 181.03 159.97 151.59 144.00As the prediction, the total population in China will not change very much from 2010 to 2040, but the urbanization rate will be increased from 50% to 74%, and to 79% in 2050. It means there will be 1.1 billion people living in the urban areas.

Urban Research Agenda

Tokyo Bay

Aerosol-climate interaction

Urbanization, Land cover change and local/regional water cycle

Mega-city risk assessment and disaster management (flood, drought, heat wave et. al)

Surface temperature difference

between two 7ys centered at 1987 and 1997

Adachi and Kimura (2009,ICUC)

Direct hind cast Pseudo Climate Change using only early 7ys analysis Observation

Climate change

Land use change

Contribution of land use change

Urbanization-caused SAT trend detected with Spatial Anomaly (The SA at a station is defined as a departure from the regional average

over an 80x 80 domain centered at the station)

(1979-2008)

Yang 2012

UHI is more significant in summer in

YRD

UHI is more significant in

winter in BTH

Model Configuration Model prototype WRF V3.1.1

Governing equations Nonhydrostatic

Grids and resolution 401x401, 3km Vertical Layers

(top) 35 sigma layers (50hPa)

Cumulus convection None

Explicit moisture WSM-5

PBL YSU

Radiation RRTM/Dudhia

Land Surface NOAH LSM (UCM)

Driving Data JRA MAM 20km Analysis Simulation Period : May 21 – Sep 01 ( 2001-2007) Nov 21 – Mar 01 ( 2001-2007)

Soil temperature and moisture initiated with HRLDAS output, no anthropogenic heating!

WRF-UCM and Experiments

URBAN

No-URBAN

Climate effect of urbanization is defined as the difference between two parellel experiments: Urban – NoUrban

Interaction between UHI circulation & Sea Breeze (JJA) in YRD

Tang JP, 2011

Precipitation change in YRD: Urban - NoUrban (JJA)

Rainy days (>0.1mm/d) Days with light rain (0.1-10mm/d)

Tang JP, 2011

Rainfall intensity

Precipitation change in YRD: Urban - NoUrban (JJA)

The urbanization in Yangtze River Delta region tends to increase the daily rainfall intensity which might result in increasing of heavy rainfall

in YRD

Tang JP, 2011

Beijing, 21 July 2012 Beijing, 23 June 2011

Urban flood

1.Temperature Increase 1oC, the frequency of heavy rain increase 50-100% (Shaw Liu et al., GRL, 2009)

2.Higher temperature lead to faster chemical reaction rates, higher emission and water vapor, and consequently higher concentration of O3 (Millstein and Harley, 2009).

2, MAIRS Dryland Themes

Change of Ann. Precipitation in China, 1960-2005

China climate change in last 50 years

Change of Ann. Temperature in China, 1960-2005

northern China southern china

Precipitation 50-800mm 800-2000mm

Cultivated land 65% 35%

Water resources 19% 81%

GDP 45% 55%

By Tianbao ZHAO, 2010 Since 65% agricultural land is in northern China, drought issue is more important for policy maker and scientific research than other

Change of observed soil moisture in Xinjiang (by J Wen, 2009)

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

乌兰乌苏年平均土壤湿度深度－时间演变图

-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80

5

10

20

30

深

度

(cm)

The soil moisture observation (0-40cm) shows, most of stations are drying from surface to deeper levels from 1990’s

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

阿勒泰年平均土壤湿度深度－时间演变

0

5

10

20

30

深

度

(cm)

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

莎车年平均湿度深度-时间演变

-14-13-12-11-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

5

10

20

30

深

度

(cm)

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

伊犁年平均土壤湿度深度 时间演变

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80

5

10

20

30

深

度

(cm)

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

吐鲁番年平均土壤湿度深度－时间演变

-9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 50

5

10

20

30

深

度

(cm)

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

诺木洪年平均土壤湿度深度-时间演变

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.50

5

10

20

30

深

度

(cm)

1991

1993

1995

1993

2000

1994

Dryland Research Agenda

global warming impacts to water resource and ecosystem services in dryland Asia Assessment of vulnerability of human-environmental system to climate changes in the region Feasible resilient adaptation strategies to off-set risks of climate impacts

70°E 80°E 90°E 100°E 110°E 120°E 130°E 140°E30°N

35°N

40°N

45°N

50°N

55°N

1

23

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1314

1516

Dryland Task Team on joint observations

(22 stations in 2011)

Main Observing Agenda

1) Atmosphere boundary Layer

2) Land surface processes (including the surface water/energy/carbon flux, soil T/M/heat flux)

3) Dust Aerosol (2 stations)

4) Ecosystem (4 stations)

5) Remote sensing products on land cover details

Drought Impact on Rangeland Herders in Inner Mongolia

- Study by Xiaoyi Wang, CASS - Pastoral village of 80 households - 10,000 livestock - Decade-long drought & rising temperature affected pasture & water availability - Herders' incomes significantly reduced - But there are social factors

Social Factors interacting with Drought Impacts

Xiaoyi Wang, CASS

New Dryland Projects

- CDKN project on “Climate Compatible Development in Dryland Systems of Mongolia and Surrounding Asian Systems”, D. Ojima, K. Gavin and Chuluun, 2012-2014 - MOST international project “Disaster and risk management in Mongolian Plateau”, Heqing HUANG, 2012-2015 - APN CAPaBLE: Capacity Building to Study and Address Climate Change-induced Extremes in Northern Asia (MAIRS-NEESPI joint activity)

3, Regional Modeling

ADMIP: Asian Dryland land surface Modeling Inter-comparison

To evaluate and improve land surface models (LSMs, energy and water) & terrestrial ecosystem model (TEMs, carbon) through offline model inter-comparison using data obtained at

Asian dryland, towards better reproduction and prediction of land

surface state using improved models, and necessary capacity building.

PI: Jun Asanuma from Tsukuba University 17 models from Japan, China, US, Korea

SWup

LWup

SWup and LWup differences among model results is 10 - 30 W/m2.

Kazuaki Yorozu, Kyoto University

RMIP Simulation Design

Integration Domain: (45-165E, 0-45N) Resolution: 60KM (for whole area, downscaling to 30KM in some key areas) Participating Countries: China, Japan, Korea, Australia, US Regional Models: 6 models in RMIP II, and 9 models in RMIP III Simulation Periods: 1978-2000 for control, 2038-2070 for projection, A 2-year spin-up time is applied to both control and projection runs

Shuyu Wang, Nanjing University

RMIP: Regional modeling inter-

comparison in Asia

Shuyu Wang, Nanjing University

RMIP Activities

- Regional projections for 2040-2070 with uncertainties - Data sharing - Development of integrated assessment tool for urban policy and planning (UrbanCLIM – Yinpeng Li) - High-resolution precipitation events - High-resolution urban projection (APN, NSFC) - High-resolution mountain projection (ICIMOD) - Link with WCRP/CORDEX

Opportunity for Collaboration Between CLIVAR/AAMP and MAIRS

• How to understand the uncertainty of coupled climate models? especially the future ENSO/monsoon change?

• How to explain the uncertainty of climate models to the scientists from other fields (hydrology, ecosystem, agriculture et al.) and other end users

• How to transfer this kind of knowledge gap to local/national policy makers and publics

• Other opportunities?