from cci to cds – how to provide satellite ecvs · c3s general assembly | warsaw ... (cci)...

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From CCI to CDS –how to provide satellite ECVs –the rationale and strategy

Susanne Mecklenburg, Head of ESA Climate Office

C3S General Assembly | Warsaw | 31 October 2019

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ESA Climate Office

Focal point for climate activities in ESA

Implement the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Programme

Working on international level with EU, ECMWF/ C3S and CAMS, EUMETSAT, UNFCCC, IPCC, GCOS, CEOS, WCRP, WMO, Future Eart SCO etc

Observer at IPCC/UNFCCC

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PwC

As a reminder: Climate activities under ESA/EOEP-5(in addition/complementing CCI activities)

• Develop and implement satellite missions

• Provide EO data for climate relevant variables

• Earth Science for Society • Earth System Science

• Regional Initiative

• SDG Indicators

• EO for Resilient Society

• Platforms & AI

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EO is the European Citizens’ Priority in Space

“In the eyes of Europeans, the primary area of progression for space activitieswould be to foster a better understanding of what is happening on Earth,particularly regarding the climate”

Q: In the future, do you believe that priority should be given or not to spaceactivities that allow us to ... ?

TOP 5 Priorities:

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Essential Climate Variables – revisited • An ECV is a physical, chemical or biological

variable or a group of linked variables thatcritically contributes to the characterization ofEarth’ s climate.

• GCOS currently specifies 54 ECVs.

• ECV datasets provide the empirical evidenceneeded to understand and predict the evolutionof climate, to guide mitigation andadaptation measures, to assess risks andenable attribution of climate events tounderlying causes, and to underpin climateservices. They are required to support thework of the UNFCCC and the IPCC.

• ECVs need to be

• Relevant• Feasible• Cost effective

• GCOS revised implementation plan in 2022

ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official UseFor DATA: http://cci.esa.int/data

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Chapter 1 Framing, context methodsChapter 2 Changing state of the climate systemChapter 3 Human influence on the climate systemChapter 4 future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term informationChapter 5 Global carbon and other biogeochemical cycles and feedbacksChapter 6 Short-lived climate forcersChapter 7 The Earth’s energy budget, climate feedbacks, and climate sensitivityChapter 8 Water cycle changesChapter 9 Ocean cryosphere, and sea level changeChapter 10 Linking global to regional climateChapter 11 Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climateChapter 12 Climate change information for regional impact and for risk assessment

2021

Summary for policy makersTechnical summary

....the best available science.

← CCI

ESA is now observer to IPCC

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ESA’s CCI for IPCC

178

100+

22

133 4.2

640 2815

13

450

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IPCC Special Report: Oceans & Cryosphere“The best available scientific knowledge to empower governments and communities".~50 ESA’s Climate Change Initiative papers cited CCI scientists contributing directly to the reportIncludes results from several CCI projects

Projected Sea Level Rise until 2300

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CMUG Climate Models

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ESA CCI Research C3S Operations

ESA continues to provide R&D for ECVs from CCI/+ that progressed into C3S

In future: work on feedback cycle!

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AN EXAMPLE

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Greenhouse Gases

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Ongoing CCI R&D benefitting C3S products: GHG

Operationally GHG CCIproduct generated &extended (XGHG & IASIproducts)

Target

Algorithms & corresponding satelliteECV timeseries:

Main products: XCO2 & XCH4 fromSCIAMACHY & GOSAT

Additional products:• mid tropospheric columns: AIRS &

ACE-FTS CO2, IASI CO2 & CH4

• stratos. profiles: MIPAS CH4,SCIAMACHY solar occultation CO2and CH4

Algorithm dev. & extending ECVtimeseries:

XCO2 from OCO-2, TanSat &GOSAT-2

XCH4 retrieval dev. from S5P &GOSAT-2

Product generation, validation,user assessment

Cooperation with CCI+ ECVprojects (incl. CSWG, DEWG, …)

ESA’s Climate Change Initiative GHG project continuing to ● extend time series ● develop algorithm ● update merged products ●

Precursor R&D On-going production New R&D

CCI CCI+

C3S

Improving C3S products & services

Work on feedback cycle!

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Satellites15 in operation

25 under development

12 in preparation

A successful Track-RecordESA-Developed Earth Observation Missions

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Copernicus – European Excellence

Land und Ozean

Landflächen-überwachung

Ozean – Land –Umwelt - Klima Atmosphäre Atmosphäre

Atmosphäre Ozean - Klima

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April 2018: ’NO2 Dots’ over Siberia - KNMI NO2 Emissions of compressor stations along the Urengoj pipeline

Copyright: Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2018-2019) / processed by KNMI

S5p/TROPOMI - Connecting the DotsNO2 Emissions from Compressor Stations a-long a pipeline

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Operational EO – Copernicus 4.0

CRISTAL – Polar Ice & Snow Topography

CIMR – Passive Microwave Radiometer

Anthropogenic CO2 Mon. Mission

CHIME – Hyperspectral Imaging Mission

L-band SAR Mission

Land Surface Temperature Mission

Causes of Climate Change(imaging spectrometer)

Agriculture & Water Productivity(high res surface temperature)

Effects ofClimate Change

Food Security, Soil, Minerals, Biodiversity (hyperspectral imaging)

Sea: Surface Temp. & Ice Concentration (passive microwave radiation)

Vegetation & Ground Motion & Moisture(L Band SAR)

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Candidate Copernicus Expansion MissionEnd-to-end System requirements to monitor CO2

1. Detection of emitting hot spots such as megacities or power plants.

2. Monitoring the hot spot emissions to assess emission reductions/increase of the activities.

3. Assessing emission changes against local reduction targets to monitor impacts of the NDCs.

4. Assessing the national emissions and changes in 5-year time steps to estimate the global stock take.

Acc

ura

cy

Sp

ace

& T

ime

km & daily scales

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What comes next • International agreements & initiatives

• 2021 Sixth Assessment Report AR6• 2023 1st Global Stocktake

• New strategies, requirements and recommendations• 2019 WCRP publishes Strategic Plan 2019-2028• 2020 CEOS WG Climate collates ECV and FCDR inventories, performs a ECV gap analysis

versus GCOS requirements, updates Space Agencies’ response to GCOS requirements anddelivers a coordinated action plan to CEOS/CGMS agencies to plug the gaps

• 2020 Report from GHG Task Force/CEOS led by WG Climate with contributions from CEOSACVC and WGCV

• Jan 2022 GCOS revised implementation plan

• New programme proposals for ECV / climate research players• 2020 EUMETSAT SAFs renewal• 2021 new proposal for C3S• 2022 ESA CCI+ follow on proposal

• ….

What we need to know

Answering the questions

How we could address it

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Thanks for your attention!

Susanne Mecklenburgsusanne.Mecklenburg@esa.int