freedom around the globe (since 1776): march? crawl? retreat? zig zag? a. illarionov, cato...

FREEDOM AROUND FREEDOM AROUND THE GLOBE (SINCE 1776):THE GLOBE (SINCE 1776):

MARCH? CRAWL? RETREAT? ZIG ZAG?MARCH? CRAWL? RETREAT? ZIG ZAG?

A. Illarionov,A. Illarionov,

Cato Institute, WashingtonCato Institute, Washington,, USA USA

Institute of Economic Analysis, Moscow, RussiaInstitute of Economic Analysis, Moscow, Russia

Cato University,Cato University,

Rancho Bernardo Inn, July 21, 2008Rancho Bernardo Inn, July 21, 2008

© © Cato Institute, IEACato Institute, IEA

www.cato.orgwww.cato.org, , www.cato.ruwww.cato.ru, , www.iea.ruwww.iea.ru

© IEA

Milton Friedman at the MPS meeting, 1984:Milton Friedman at the MPS meeting, 1984:

”Are we freer today than 50 years ago?””Are we freer today than 50 years ago?”

His answer:His answer:

”Probably, not””Probably, not”

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Size of Government as % of GDP in the USA, 1789-2007.Size of Government as % of GDP in the USA, 1789-2007.

Source: IEA calculations.

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Some other VI and FA Questions:Some other VI and FA Questions:

1. Which countries are more or less free?1. Which countries are more or less free?

2. Are we becoming more free?2. Are we becoming more free?

3. What is better: to have a Free or a Non Free society? 3. What is better: to have a Free or a Non Free society?

Why does one need Freedom?Why does one need Freedom?

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- Freedom can be compared over time and space.Freedom can be compared over time and space.

- Freedom can be measured.- Freedom can be measured.

- Measurement can be both direct and indirect.- Measurement can be both direct and indirect.

- Object of measurement – level of freedom in a - Object of measurement – level of freedom in a

society (nation).society (nation).

- Freedom is a very complex and very - Freedom is a very complex and very

multidimensional matter. There are many freedoms – multidimensional matter. There are many freedoms –

individual, civil, economic, political, etc.individual, civil, economic, political, etc.

Freedom Index Project:Freedom Index Project:

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It is the condition in which an individual has the It is the condition in which an individual has the

ability to act according to his/her own will, not ability to act according to his/her own will, not

inflicting harm to other individuals.inflicting harm to other individuals.

Also applicable to other subjects, i.e. states.Also applicable to other subjects, i.e. states.

Very general definition of Freedom:Very general definition of Freedom:

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- Positive FreedomPositive Freedom – self-mastery, or the capacity to – self-mastery, or the capacity to

determine oneself, to be in control of one's destiny; determine oneself, to be in control of one's destiny;

it is freedom to (act, develop one’s potential).it is freedom to (act, develop one’s potential).

- - Negative FreedomNegative Freedom – absence of constraints on, or – absence of constraints on, or

interference with, agents' possible action. It is interference with, agents' possible action. It is

freedom from (threat, coercion, oppression, freedom from (threat, coercion, oppression,

violence, aggression).violence, aggression).

Isaiah Berlin, Two Concepts of Liberty, 1958:Isaiah Berlin, Two Concepts of Liberty, 1958:

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1. Subject – an individual, a group of individuals, a state.1. Subject – an individual, a group of individuals, a state.

2. Free will – based on one’s wish, experience, knowledge.2. Free will – based on one’s wish, experience, knowledge.

3. Ability to act – physical, technical/technological, economic. 3. Ability to act – physical, technical/technological, economic.

4. Absence of constraints – legal, regulatory, cultural.4. Absence of constraints – legal, regulatory, cultural.

5. Act – voluntary transfer of rights (exchange, charity, taxation, 5. Act – voluntary transfer of rights (exchange, charity, taxation,

tribute).tribute).

6. No harm to others – secured by (rule of) law, institutions, culture.6. No harm to others – secured by (rule of) law, institutions, culture.

7. Extent (share) in the society of subjects with legal rights to free 7. Extent (share) in the society of subjects with legal rights to free

action. Legal equality among subjects, especially gender equality. action. Legal equality among subjects, especially gender equality.

Components of Freedom:Components of Freedom:

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1. Which country is more free?1. Which country is more free?

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Economic Freedom of the World, 2005.Economic Freedom of the World, 2005.

Source: Fraser Institute.

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Political Rights in the World, 2007.Political Rights in the World, 2007.

Source: Freedom House.

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Civil Liberties in the World, 2007.Civil Liberties in the World, 2007.

Source: Freedom House.

© IEA

2. Are we becoming more free?2. Are we becoming more free?

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2.1. Abilities.2.1. Abilities.

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Life expectancy at birth, total, Life expectancy at birth, total, 1960-2005, 172 countries.1960-2005, 172 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

© IEA

Immunization, measles (% of children ages 12-23 months), Immunization, measles (% of children ages 12-23 months), 1992-2005, 180 countries.1992-2005, 180 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

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Improved sanitation facilitiesImproved sanitation facilities(% of population with access), 127 countries.(% of population with access), 127 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

© IEA

Death rate per 1000 population, 1960-2005,Death rate per 1000 population, 1960-2005,175 countries.175 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

© IEA

2.2. Education and Knowledge.2.2. Education and Knowledge.

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Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above), Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above), 1990-2006, 91 countries.1990-2006, 91 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

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2.3. Technical/Technological Opportunity.2.3. Technical/Technological Opportunity.

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Electric power consumption (kWh per capita),Electric power consumption (kWh per capita),1971-2004, 129 countries.1971-2004, 129 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

© IEA

Motor-vehicle rate (per 1000 people),1980-2002, 110 countries.

Source: IEA calculations.

© IEA

Air passengers carried per 1000 population, 1970-2005, 88 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

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Fixed line and mobile phone subscribersFixed line and mobile phone subscribers(per 1000 population),(per 1000 population), 19719755-200-20055, , 9494 countries. countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

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International voice traffic (minutes per person), International voice traffic (minutes per person), 1994-2003, 95 countries. 1994-2003, 95 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

© IEA

Personal computers (per 1000 population),Personal computers (per 1000 population), 1988-2004, 41 countries. 1988-2004, 41 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

© IEA

Internet users (per 1000 population),Internet users (per 1000 population), 2000-2005, 153 countries. 2000-2005, 153 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

© IEA

2.4. Economic Opportunity.2.4. Economic Opportunity.

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GDP per capita in the World, 1870−2007.

Source: IEA calculations based on A. Maddison’s data.

© IEA

A Real Hockey Stick:GDP per capita in the World, 1−2007.

Source: IEA calculations based on A. Maddison’s data.

© IEA

2.5. Economic Freedom.2.5. Economic Freedom.

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Highest marginal tax rate, individual rate (%),Highest marginal tax rate, individual rate (%), 7474 countries. countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

© IEA

Highest marginal tax rate, corporate rate (%),Highest marginal tax rate, corporate rate (%), 81 countries. 81 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

© IEA

Annual Inflation, 1971-2007, 173 countries.Annual Inflation, 1971-2007, 173 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on IMF data.

© IEA

Size of Government as % of GDP in the World, 1950-2006.Size of Government as % of GDP in the World, 1950-2006.

Source: IEA calculations.

© IEA

Size of Private Sector in the World, 1950-2006.Size of Private Sector in the World, 1950-2006.

Source: IEA calculations.

© IEA

World’s Economic Freedom Index, 1970-2005.World’s Economic Freedom Index, 1970-2005.

Source: IEA calculations from Economic Freedom Network.

© IEA

International migration stock as % of population,1960-2005, 183 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

© IEA

2.6. Political and Civil Freedoms.2.6. Political and Civil Freedoms.

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Number of independent states, 1801-200Number of independent states, 1801-20088..

Source: IEA calculations.

© IEA

Number of Democracies Number of Democracies (nations scoring 8 or higher on the Polity IV scale)(nations scoring 8 or higher on the Polity IV scale),,

18001800−200−2004.4.

Source: Polity Data series.

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World’s Political Rights Index, 1972-2007.World’s Political Rights Index, 1972-2007.

Source: IEA calculations from Freedom House.

© IEA

World’s Civil LibertiesWorld’s Civil Liberties Index, 1972-2007.Index, 1972-2007.

Source: IEA calculations from Freedom House.

© IEA

World’s Freedom of PressWorld’s Freedom of Press Index, 1994-2008.Index, 1994-2008.

Source: IEA calculations from Freedom House.

© IEA

2.7. Gender Equality.2.7. Gender Equality.

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Life expectancy at birth, female as % of male,Life expectancy at birth, female as % of male,172 countries.172 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

© IEA

Literacy rate, adult female as % of male (15 years+), 1990-2006, 91 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

© IEA

Labor force, female (% of total labor force)Labor force, female (% of total labor force)as % of population, 1980-2005, 181 countries.as % of population, 1980-2005, 181 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

© IEA

Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament (%), 130 countries.

Source: IEA calculations based on World Development Indicators 2007.

© IEA

2.8. Freedom from Crime.2.8. Freedom from Crime.

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Homicide Rates per 100,000 Population in OECD,Homicide Rates per 100,000 Population in OECD, 1976-2006. 1976-2006.

Source: IEA calculations.

© IEA

Homicide Rate per 100,000 population, 1970-2002, 54 countries.

Source: IEA calculations.

© IEA

3. Why does one need Freedom?3. Why does one need Freedom?

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GDP per capita in Free, Partly Free, GDP per capita in Free, Partly Free, and Non Free countries,and Non Free countries, 2007. 2007.

Source: IEA calculations based on Freedom House, IMF, World Bank data.

© IEA

GDP per capita growth in Free, Partly Free, GDP per capita growth in Free, Partly Free, and Non Free countries, and Non Free countries, 1972-2007.1972-2007.

Source: IEA calculations based on Freedom House, IMF, World Bank data.

© IEA

Life Expectancy at birth, male, in Free, Partly Free, Life Expectancy at birth, male, in Free, Partly Free, Non Free countries,Non Free countries, 2007. 2007.

Source: IEA calculations based on Freedom House, IMF, World Bank data.

© IEA

GDP per capita in 3 Arab countries (Egypt, IraqGDP per capita in 3 Arab countries (Egypt, Iraq, , MoroccoMorocco)) as as % of the Western Europe, % of the Western Europe, 110000–200600–2006..

Source: IEA calculations based on A. Maddison’s data, 2007.