four dystopias for the future of education

Dystopias and how to avoid them

Penn StateWorld Campus

-September

2014

Part 2: scenariosStories about futures Event and response Creativity

Roles and times Emergent practices

and patterns

Dystopia ahead

What’s a dystopia?

Start with utopia: Thomas More, 1516 (eu- + u-)

Very grim worlds

Very grim worlds

Extrapolations of current trends

Criticisms of the present (i.e., 1948)

Total systems

Very grim worlds

Even grimmer worlds

Even grimmer worlds Never a happy

ending Rebellions are

quashed

Scenarios to consider

1. Silos stand tall2. Cyberpunk world3. Gilded Age 2.04. Bubble bursts

1. Silos stand tall

Closed information architecture

ContentTeaching

ResearchSource software

Features

Global conversations fragment

Filter bubbles for all

On campus Information prices high Faculty trained to stacks + separation

IT “ “ “ Academic content scarce in the non-OECD world

On campus

Tech support by silo Powerful LMS Library as licensing agent, inter-silo guide

Some good things

Content industries preserved

High quality content “ “ technologies Less malware

Internet has always been a series of walled gardens

The Web is commercial They identified with stacks by age 15

II: Cyberpunk world

Tech saturated Chaotic

Cyberpunk world Hyperglobalized Networked, distributed technology is ubiquitous

Surveillance is the norm, both corporate and governmental

Cyberpunk world States destabilized Companies have increased regulatory capture + policy influence

Subversion by technology Continuous future shock

Cyberpunk world Labor: chaotic, disorganized, sometimes approaching forced

Unemployment high, due to…

On campus

Privatized tuition “ campus support Business + STEM programs + Homeland Security big

On campus

Micropayments for campus transactions

Business metrics Greater military presence

Information literacy vital

Identified with company by age 15

½ of social network is not same nation

Heavy tech training by middle school

III: Gilded Age 2.0

New age of inequality, led by the 1% and their 1%

Stability

Gilded Age 2.0

Alfreds

Gilded Age 2.0 Consumption made conspicuous by digital media

Labor in service, as Alfreds

Automation widespread

Gilded Age 2.0

Gerontocracy in practical politics

Underemployed pacified by funding, media

Gilded Age campus Faculty 99% adjunct (neofeudal campus)

Focus on rich students Student debt > mortgages

Gilded Age campus

F2f for the 1% Distance learning for middle class

MOOCs for everyone else

Gilded Age campus Elite schools offer liberal arts

education Lack of visible tech = mark of

status BA= mark of service quality Leading majors: finance,

human resources, poli sci

Follow 1% displays closely

Contributed to sharing economy by age 10

“Middle class” is as historical as the Crusades

IV. The bubble bursts

Perfect storm

Demographic decline Accelerated prices + sunk costs

Low public funding

Alternatives rising

Education’s reputation declines

Homeschooling boom Informal learning on par w/formal

Corporate/gov. research

Enrollment collapse

http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/files/TermEnrollmentReport-Spring2013.pdf

How does this impact campuses?

Fewer, less crowded campuses

Very international student body, for now

Low-cost programs ($10K BA)

How does this impact campuses?

Less research published

Tenure a rarity Information support largely outsourced

Vocational tech classes are widespread in K-12

Apprenticeships are accepted in career paths

Colleges have always been transnational

Scenarios to consider

1. Silos stand tall2. Cyberpunk world3. Gilded Age 2.04. Bubble bursts

How do we avoid these fates?

Part 3. Ways out

Use social media

Expand involvement with open*

•Own your data

Politics

Lobby politically for massive increase in government funding

Organize on adjuncts Fight for broader

economic policies

Campus

Futures thinking Teach privacy concepts, practices, and technologies

Nurture public intellectuals

Your turn

The bloghttp://bryanalexander.org

The Twitterhttp://twitter.com/BryanAlexander

The emailbryan.alexander@gmail.com

The bear

Image credits

Wikipedia http://lotrlockedwhovian.tumblr.com/post/

91110915848/i-want-this-at-work https://www.flickr.com/photos/urlukket/6485398549 https://www.flickr.com/photos/vblibrary/5537660712 https://

www.flickr.com/photos/jonny2love/4016385671 http://

www.openculture.com/2008/06/george_orwells_1984_download_free_audio_book_version.html

https://www.alfredclub.com/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/pagedooley/35588740

01/in/photostream/