forestry adaptation england
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London Calling
Species Diversification and Choice
John WeirAdviser for Woodland creation and resilience
John.weir@forestry.gsi.gov.ukwww.forestry.gov.uk/climatechangeengland
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF2
Policy and strategy, etc, etc, etc
Climate change action plan
A strategy for the Forestry Commission estate in England
1st August 2011
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF3
An age of innocence
• Sycamore, Scots pine brought to England and Beech was moved north. 8,500 years ago an island
• Romans brought us sweet chestnut from Turkey and rabbits and fallow deer for food.
• Napoleonic wars brought a huge new Oak resource from Europe
• The Victorian plant hunters brought us a wealth of trees from around the world, and the grey squirrel
• The Forestry Commission used the trees available
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The Age of Stupid
•
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Our forests todayConifer Species Today
Scots Pine
Corsican Pine
Sitka Spruce
Douglas Fir
Larch (EL, HL, JL)
Other Conifer
Oak26%
Beech 10%
Sycamore8%
Ash16%
Birch12%
Poplar2%
Sweet chestnut2%
Elm0%
Other Broadleaves11%
Mixed Broadleaves13%
Data SourcWoodland -d t 1998
• 5 conifer species account for 88% of the total
• 5 broadleaved species account for over 72% of the total
• 10 tree species account for 80% of our woodland!!!!
Broadleaved species today
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF6
Pests and diseases
Chalara on Ash!!!
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF7
What are we doing??
Telegraph.co.uk-7 Mar 2013The deer population has exploded since the 1960s
Deer cull essential to protect woodlands: studyAFP-6 Mar 2013LONDON —
Half of the country's deer population needs to be culled to preserve woodlands and birdlife, said a scientific study published on ...
cull70,000 road kills per year
AlexRoe
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF8
Warnings of things to come
• 1970s Dutch Elm disease
• 1976 The big drought
• 1987 10 years felling programme lost overnight
1975 John Weir stared work with the Forestry Commission (37 years)
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Climate Change
Source: UK Meteorological Office
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1961-90
Forest of Dean Today
Coleford
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Forest of Dean by 2050
2050s High
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Forest of Dean 2080
2080s High
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Risk to woodlands on the Public Forest Estate
By the 2080s, a risk of 65% of the PFE being classed as ‘unsuitable’ in the absence of
adaptation – or 35% decline in productivity
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feet per day
The rate of change……..
Our trees are having a pretty tough time of it and it can only get more challenging.
To do nothing is to leave no options for future generations, so what do we know to allow us to
take actions?
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF15
Climate Change Strategy England
• Adopt the principle of anticipatory adaptation. This offers the highest potential gains for forest resilience, and the benefits they provide.
• Take an approach that is ‘not risk averse’.
• Global emissions are currently tracking close to some of the more extreme emissions scenarios that have been published, so it is prudent to consider the 2050 high scenario when planning for the future.
• Diversification is the theme!!!!
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF16
What does the past tell us?
DEAN
between wars WW2
1946 1949 1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's
Grand Total
Species Douglas fir DF 25 11 3 87 386 152 81 36 46 846European larch EL 81 33 36 69 82 18 9 7 7 390European silver fir ESF 2 1 3Grand fir GF 21 27 4 52Japanese red cedar JCR 1 1Lawsons cypress LC 4 4 2 21 26 58Leyland cypress LEC 1 1 1 3Maritime pine MAP Oriental spruce MCP 3 2 5Mountain pine MOP Noble fir NF 2 6 1 9Serbian spruce OMS 5 1 6Ponderosa pine PDP 1 1Raoul RAN 4 5 1 10Monteray pine RAP Red alder RAR Western red cedar RC 5 1 24 125 54 2 1 218Red Oak ROK 1 12 1 1 15Roble RON 1 3 4Coast redwood RSQ 5 3 3 1 12Sweet chestnut SC 44 10 6 40 41 45 32 45 48 340Weymouth pine WEP 1 2 4Western hemlock WH 3 1 2 41 88 2 1 138Wellingtonia WSQ 1 1 3 XB 8 8 6 26 11 4 6 3 1 107 XC 2 2 22 XF 1 1 2
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The ‘READ’ report species
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SpruceSerbian spruce: Picea ormorika Oriental spruce: Picea orientalis
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After Larch: a deciduous conifer?
Dawn redwood: Metasequoia glyptostroboides
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF20
RedwoodsCoast redwood: Sequoia sempervirens Wellingtonia: Sequoiadendron
giganteum
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF21
Crytomeria: Japanese cedarJapanese cedar: Cryptomeria japonica Japanese cedar: Cryptomeria japonica
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF22
CedarsAtlas cedar: Cerdus atlanticaCedar of lebanon: Cedrus libaniHimalayan cedar: Cedrus diodara
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF23
Western red Cedar: Thuja plicata Leyland cyprus: Cupressus x leylandii
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Pines post DothistromaMacedonian pine: Pinus peuce Weymouth pine: Pinus strobus
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European Fir’sEuropean silver fir: Abies alba Greek fir: Abies cephalonica
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Old favourites!Western hemlock: Tsuga heterophylla Douglas-fir: Pseudotsuga menziesii
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Lesser-used nativesSmall-leafed lime: Tilia cordata Hornbeam: Carpinus betula
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF28
Near Native – but whenDowny birch: Quercus pubescens Narrow-leafed ash: Fraxinus angustifolia
Oriental beech: Fagus orientalis Common walnut: Juglans regia
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF29
A few more...Red alder: Alnus rubra Italian alder: Alnus viridis
Robinia: Robinia pseudoacacia Black Walnut: Juglans nigra
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A few more... Eucalypts: E. gunii; nitens; glaucescens; dalrympleana
Tulip tree/yellow poplar: Liriodendron tulipifera
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF31
2 or 3 Degrees of Latitude 5?
35
02
3 degree
5 degree
For the south of the country…
Very Important for our native broadleaf species
Best to use improved stock whenever possible (FTT). The French are foresters
Grown here?
Think biosecurity!
Think forest hygiene!
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF32
Native distributions
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Native distributionsDouglas fir
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Tree Breeding, native and exotic
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Expert advice and support
• We need to create an urgency for foresters to act
• We must get the right tree, in the right place for the right reason.
• We need to remove the excuses to not take action
• We are trying to lead by example on our own land
• We are making our knowledge available to all
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF36
Guidance
•FCE’s climate change resourcewww.forestry.gov.uk/climatechangeenglandwww.forestry.gov.uk/climatechangeengland
•Forest researchwww.forestry.gov.uk/fr/climatechangewww.forestry.gov.uk/fr/climatechange
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Providing the evidence
Decision Support Advice, reducing the risk
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Guidance on adapting species choice: Ecological Site Classification (ESC)
ESC is a knowledge-based model; productivity distribution data are used to inform decisions;
ESC was developed to support the UK forestry industry in commercial species selection;
Rising CO2 levels are not accounted for.
Detailed species information, including provenance guidance, provided
www.eforestry.gov.uk/forestdss
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF39
Data Input
Grid reference gives elevation aspect etc. Good soils or vegetation data gives growing medium and rooting depth etc. Uses meterological data to 100m. Climate Change data on 5km squares so not so accurate. Rubbish in, rubbish out.
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Suitability Today
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Climate Change
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF42
Native Woodland Type
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF43
Simple messages • Woodland design and contingency planning
• understand climate change projections• create fire, windstorm and flood contingency plans• monitor and review
• Bring existing woodlands into management• manage deer, squirrels and invasive species• thin to encourage regeneration• enrichment planting to diversify species
• Adapt choice of planting material• diversity of species – including ‘minor species’• genetic diversity and more southerly origins• species capable of withstanding hotter, drier climate
• Transform to ‘continuous cover forestry’• Landscape approaches
• link woodlands in the landscape• enlarge existing woodlands
www.forestry.gov.uk/climatechangeengland
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF44
Some things we can do??
Use the knowledge to make ‘anticipatory decisions’,
‘do not be risk averse’,
accept ‘2050 high scenario’ is very probable and that we have an urgency as today is 2013, well into this uncertain future
07/04/2014 CIF/ICF45
• Thank you
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