forecasting tricks for vail, co (march 12, 2013)

Forecasting tricks for the Vail Valley

Meteorologist Joel Gratz

Photo: Connor Walberg, ActionPhotoSchool.com

Worst Year Best Year

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Ouray

Aspen

Ouray

Pueblo

Durango

Alamosa

Boulder

Gunnison

Fort Collins

Grand Junction

Colorado Springs

Glenwood Springs

Steamboat Springs

Arkansas

South Platte

Gunnison

Upper Colorado Headwaters

Yampa and White

Upper Rio Grande

San Miguel, Dolores,

Animas and San Juan

Laramie and North Platte

75

69

78

76

85

79

81

78

Denver

"#$76

"#$25

ColoradoSNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal

"#$70

0 20 40 60 80 10010Miles

Provisional Data Subject to Revision

Current Snow WaterEquivalent (SWE)Basin-wide Percentof 1981-2010 Median

unavailable *

<50%

50 - 69%

70 - 89%

90 - 109%

110 - 129%

130 - 149%

>=150%

Mar 11, 2013

* Data unavailable at time of posting or measurement is not representative at this time of year

Prepared by the USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center Portland, Oregon http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/gis/Based on data from http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reports/Science contact: Jim.Marron@por.usda.gov 503 414 3047

The snow water equivalent percent of normal represents the currentsnow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on the first reading of the day (typically 00:00).

Average

Lastyear

Thisyear

VailJanuary 31, 2013

VailJanuary 31, 2013

VailJanuary 31, 2013

My calling since age 5...

Joel Gratz, Aspen Highlands, CO, 2010. Photo: Ted MahonJoel Gratz, Blue Mountain, PA, 1986. Photo: Steve Gratz

CopperOctober 31, 2012

CMH GalenaBritish Columbia

December 29, 2012

THANK YOU!!!!!

December 2007 28 person email list

2008-2009 500 person email list

2009-2010 245,000 pageviews

2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews

2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews

2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

THANK YOU!!!!!

December 2007 28 person email list

2008-2009 500 person email list

2009-2010 245,000 pageviews

2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews

2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews

2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

THANK YOU!!!!!

December 2007 28 person email list

2008-2009 500 person email list

2009-2010 245,000 pageviews

2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews

2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews

2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

THANK YOU!!!!!

December 2007 28 person email list

2008-2009 500 person email list

2009-2010 245,000 pageviews

2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews

2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews

2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

THANK YOU!!!!!

December 2007 28 person email list

2008-2009 500 person email list

2009-2010 245,000 pageviews

2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews

2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews

2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

THANK YOU!!!!!

December 2007 28 person email list

2008-2009 500 person email list

2009-2010 245,000 pageviews

2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews

2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews

2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

THANK YOU!!!!!

December 2007 28 person email list

2008-2009 500 person email list

2009-2010 245,000 pageviews

2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews

2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews

2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

THANK YOU!!!!!

December 2007 28 person email list

2008-2009 500 person email list

2009-2010 245,000 pageviews

2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews

2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews

2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

THANK YOU!!!!!

How this presentation will help you:

1) Learn snow forecasting tricks for the Vail Valley

How this presentation will help you:

1) Learn snow forecasting tricks for the Vail Valley

How this presentation will help you:

2) Understand how tointerpret the current

weather situation

Joel Gratz | Meadow Mountain, CO | 2009-03-11Joel Gratz | Meadow Mountain, CO | 2009-03-11

Is Colorado the tougheststate to forecast?

La Nina storm tracks

Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder

El Nino storm tracks

Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder

Normal Water Temperatures

La Nada storm tracks

Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high

1

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high

1 2

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high

1 2 3

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high

“Weather happens” when moist air gets high.

“Weather happens” when moist air gets high.

“Weather happens” when moist air gets high.

“Weather happens” when moist air gets high.

“Weather happens” when moist air gets high.

Where’s the moisture?

Where’s the moisture?

Lots of moisture(ocean source)

Where’s the moisture?

Lots of moisture(ocean source)

OK moisture(ocean + plants)

Where’s the moisture?

Lots of moisture(ocean source)

Less moisture(land source)

OK moisture(ocean + plants)

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high

1

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high

1 2

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high

1 2 3

Five ways to get high

Five ways to get high

C is for convection.

Five ways to get high

C is for convection.

L is for low pressure.

Five ways to get high

C is for convection.

L is for low pressure.

O is for orographic.

Five ways to get high

C is for convection.

L is for low pressure.

O is for orographic.

U is for undercut.

Five ways to get high

C is for convection.

L is for low pressure.

O is for orographic.

U is for undercut.

D is for dynamic.

Pleaaasssseeeee Remember

orographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographics

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Park Range

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Park Range

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Park Range

Flattops

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Park Range

Flattops

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

N&SSan Juans

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

N&SSan Juans

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Sangre deChristo

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Sangre deChristo

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Sangre deChristo

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans

Sawatch

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Sangre deChristo

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans

Sawatch

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Sangre deChristo

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans

Sawatch

Ten Mile &Mosquito

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Sangre deChristo

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans

Sawatch

Ten Mile &Mosquito

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Sangre deChristo

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans

Sawatch

Gore

Ten Mile &Mosquito

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Sangre deChristo

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans

Sawatch

Gore

Ten Mile &Mosquito

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Indian Peaks / RMNP

Sangre deChristo

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans

Sawatch

Gore

Ten Mile &Mosquito

The best (upslope) wind direction

Wolf Creek

Silverton

Telluride

Powderhorn

Crested Butte

Aspen

VailSummit Co.

Steamboat RMNP

Vail: Northwest winds

Vail: Northwest winds

Vail

Vail: Northwest winds

BeaverCreek

Vail

Vail: Northwest winds

BeaverCreek

Vail

Gore Range

Vail: Northwest winds

BeaverCreek

Vail

Gore Range

VailPass

Vail: Northwest winds

BeaverCreek

Vail

Gore Range

VailPass

Vail: Northwest winds

BeaverCreek

Vail

Gore Range

VailPass

Beaver Creek: West winds

Vail

Gore Range

VailPass

BeaverCreek

Beaver Creek: West winds

Vail

Gore Range

VailPass

BeaverCreek

Snow to liquid ratio

Snow to liquid ratio

10” snow = 1” liquid --> heavy snow

Snow to liquid ratio

10” snow = 1” liquid --> heavy snow

15” snow = 1” liquid --> average

Snow to liquid ratio

10” snow = 1” liquid --> heavy snow

15” snow = 1” liquid --> average

20” snow = 1” liquid --> blower pow

VailJanuary 31, 2013

Moi

stur

e in

the

air

Temperature >> colder

10F 0F

http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/primer/primer.htm

20” snow = 1” liquid --> blower pow

20” snow = 1” liquid --> blower pow

• Lots of moisture

20” snow = 1” liquid --> blower pow

• Lots of moisture

• Mountain top temperatures between about 0-10F

20” snow = 1” liquid --> blower pow

• Lots of moisture

• Mountain top temperatures between about 0-10F

• Not too much wind

Radar

Radar

Radar

Jamming the Radar

Beam is blocked by the first mountain and can’t “see” to the second mountain.

0.5 deg

Overshooting the snow

If the radar is too far away, the beam can overshoot the snow

12,000 ft

15,000 ft

20,000 ftVail

Overshooting the snow

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

Denver Airport

PuebloGrandMesa

Overshooting the snow

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

Steamboat

Overshooting the snow

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

RMNP

Steamboat

Overshooting the snow

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

RMNP

Steamboat

Summit Co.

Overshooting the snow

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

RMNP

Steamboat

Vail

Summit Co.

Overshooting the snow

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

RMNP

Steamboat

Aspen

Vail

Summit Co.

Overshooting the snow

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

RMNP

Steamboat

Aspen

Vail

Summit Co.

Crested Butte

Overshooting the snow

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

RMNP

Steamboat

Telluride

Aspen

Vail

Summit Co.

Crested Butte

Overshooting the snow

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

RMNP

Steamboat

Telluride

Wolf Creek

Aspen

Vail

Summit Co.

Crested Butte

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

Surface Observations

Webcams!

March 11, 2013 8pm

Webcams!

March 11, 2013 9pm

Webcams!

March 11, 2013 10pm

What’s the forecast?

To the internet!

Favorite Sites

Twisterdata.com

Meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html

Avalanche.state.co.us/index.php

Joel Gratz

joel@opensnow.com