folie 1 financing concentrating solar power - subsidy or investment? franz trieb stuttgart,...
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Folie 1
Financing Concentrating Solar Power -Subsidy or Investment?
Franz Trieb
Stuttgart, 15.06.2010
Folie 2
A Strategy for CSP Finance
Folie 3DLR 2009
Challenge 1: Investment replaces fuel consumption
fuel
Power BlockElectricityPower
Block
Solar Field1
Solar Field1
Investment ($/kW): 4700 8000 11300 14600Capacity Factor : 25% 45% 65% 85%
Storage1
Solar Field2
Storage1
Solar Field2
Solar Field3
Storage2
Solar Field3
Storage2
Solar Field4
Storage3
Solar Field4
Storage3
fuel
Power BlockElectricityPower
Block
Solar Field1
Solar Field1
Investment ($/kW): 4700 8000 11300 14600Capacity Factor : 25% 45% 65% 85%
Storage1
Solar Field2
Storage1
Solar Field2
Solar Field3
Storage2
Solar Field3
Storage2
Solar Field4
Storage3
Solar Field4
Storage3
fuel
Power BlockElectricityPower
Block
Solar Field1
Solar Field1
Investment ($/kW): 4700 8000 11300 14600Capacity Factor : 25% 45% 65% 85%
Storage1
Solar Field2
Storage1
Solar Field2
Solar Field3
Storage2
Solar Field3
Storage2
Solar Field3
Storage2
Solar Field3
Storage2
Solar Field4
Storage3
Solar Field4
Storage3
Solar Field4
Storage3
Solar Field4
Storage3
Solar Field4
Storage3
Solar Field4
Storage3
Fuel
Folie 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Year
The
rmal
Ene
rgy
Uni
t C
ost
[$/M
Wh]
.
Crude Oil Price
Natural Gas Price
Coal Price
www.oilnergy.com
Challenge 2: Known immediate cost but unknown future savings
Folie 5
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
00:0
008
:00
16:0
022
:00
04:0
012
:00
16:0
000
:00
time
Win
d P
ow
er
(MW
)
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
50000
:00
08:0
016
:00
22:0
004
:00
12:0
016
:00
00:0
0
time
Intr
a-D
ay,
La
st P
rice
($
/MW
h)
Challenge 3: Fix Cost but Non-Fix Revenue
German power market during the first week-end of October 2009
Folie 6
Challenge 4: Initial Cost Levels above Market Price
Ragwitz 2009
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300
Wind offshoreWind onshore
Tide & WaveSolar thermal electricity
PhotovoltaicsHydro small-scale
Hydro large-scaleGeothermal electricity
Biowaste(Solid) Biomass
(Solid) Biomass co-firingBiogas
[$/MWh]
500 - 2000
Folie 7
1. Long-term investment (20-40 years) not only for the power plants but also for their „fuels“.
2. Unknown future savings compared to volatile and unpredictable conventional fuel prices.
3. Known long-term cost but unknown long-term revenues if electricity output is fluctuating and sold at spot markets.
4. Additional cost of early plants cannot be recovered under conventional market conditions and less if competitors are subsidized.
Pioneers are punished by market forces because markets are adapted to conventional power schemes.
Investment Challenges
Folie 8
Base Load Capacity MW 4000Base Load Annual Electricity GWh/a 30000Base Load Fuel Cost (Coal + NG + HFO) $/MWh 15.0
Medium Load Capacity MW 2500Medium Load Annual Electricity GWh/a 10000Medium Load Fuel Cost (Coal + Fuel #2) $/MWh 35.0
Peak Load Capacity MW 1000Peak Load Annual Electricity GWh/a 2000Peak Load Fuel Cost (Diesel + Fuel #2) $/MWh 60.0
Cost Escalation of Fossil Fuels %/a 1.5%Specific Power Block Investment (B+M) $/kW 1200Specific Power Block Investment (Peak) $/kW 400Project Rate of Return % of Inv./a 10.0%O&M Rate % of Inv./a 2.5%Fuel Efficiency Base & Medium Load % 35.0%Fuel Efficiency Peak Load % 30.0%
Reference LCOE of CSP in 2010 $/kWh 0.280Reference Direct Normal Irradiance kWh/m²/y 2400CSP Progress Ratio % 88.0%Exchange Rate $/€ 1.19
Model Case Power Park:
Folie 9
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Hour of Year [h]
Po
wer
[M
W]
Folie 10
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
LC
OE
($ 2
01
0/k
Wh
)
Peak Load LCOE
Medium Load LCOE
Base Load LCOE
Average LCOE
Model Case Cost Structure
Folie 11
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Req
uir
ed C
SP
Tar
iff
($2
01
0/k
Wh
)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
Glo
bal
In
stal
led
Cap
acit
y (M
W)
.
1000 824639000
95000
240000
417500
595000
772500
950000
CSP Required Tariff Model
Folie 12
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
LC
OE
($ 2
01
0/k
Wh
)
LCOE of CSP at DNI2400 kWh/m²/a
Average LCOEwithout CSP
B
Break Even with Average Cost
Folie 13
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
LC
OE
($ 2
01
0/k
Wh
)
LCOE of CSP at DNI2400 kWh/m²/a
Peak Load LCOE
Medium Load LCOE
Base Load LCOE
Average LCOEwithout CSP
B
B1
B2
B3
Break Even with differentload segments
Folie 14
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Lo
cal
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
(MW
) .
Peak CSP Capacity
Medium CSP Capacity
Base CSP Capacity
Peak Fuel Capacity
Medium Fuel Capacity
Base Fuel Capacity
Case 1: 100% Substitutionin peak and medium load segment by CSP
Folie 15
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.12
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
LC
OE
($ 2
01
0/k
Wh
)
Average LCOEwithout CSP
Average LCOE withCSP
Average LCOE withPeak CSP
a
b
c
Case 1: 100% Substitutionin peak and medium load segment by CSP
Folie 16
Calculation of Annual Solar Sharein the Initial Phase
Folie 17
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Hour of Year [h]
Po
wer
[M
W]
Peak LoadMedium LoadBase Load
1st Step: The Load Curve is devided into Peak, Medium and Base Load
Folie 18
In higher time resolution it looks like this for a summer week
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
5100 5120 5140 5160 5180 5200
Hour of Year [h]
Po
wer
[M
W]
Peak LoadMedium LoadBase Load
Folie 19
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hour of Day
Lo
ad
(M
W)
Peak Load
Medium Load
Base Load
Solar
Peak Load
Folie 20
2nd Step: The peak segment is separated and then, the lower part is covered by CSP (solar or hybrid), while the upper part (residual capacity) is covered by conventional peaking plants
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Hour of Year [h]
Po
wer
[M
W]
Peak LoadPeak SolarPeak Hybrid
Folie 21
In higher time resolution it looks like this for a summer week
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
5100 5120 5140 5160 5180 5200
Hour of Year [h]
Po
wer
[M
W]
Peak LoadPeak SolarPeak HybridPeak Residual
Folie 22
3rd Step: Medium Load is separated and the lower part covered by CSP
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Hour of Year [h]
Po
wer
[M
W]
Medium LoadMedium SolarMedium Hybrid
Folie 23
In higher time resolution it looks like this for a summer week
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
5100 5120 5140 5160 5180 5200
Hour of Year [h]
Po
wer
[M
W]
Medium LoadMedium SolarMedium HybridMedium Residual
Folie 24
4th Step: Base Load is separated and the lower part covered by CSP
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Hour of Year [h]
Po
wer
[M
W]
Base LoadBase SolarBase Hybrid
Folie 25
In higher time resolution it looks like this for a summer week
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5100 5120 5140 5160 5180 5200
Hour of Year [h]
Po
wer
[M
W]
Base LoadBase SolarBase HybridBase Residual
Folie 26
Load Segment Peak Load Medium Load Base Load TotalInstalled Capacity (MW) 1285 2455 4000 7740Electricity Production (GWh/a) 1925 10004 30095 42024CSP Capacity (MW) 600 1700 3200 5500CSP Solar Multiple 1 2 3.5 --CSP Storage (h) 6 8 18 --CSP Solar Share (GWh/a) 1159 6574 21313 29046CSP Fuel Share (GWh/a) 537 3124 6560 10221Residual Capacity (MW) 685 755 800 2240Residual Electricity (GWh/a) 230 306 2222 2758Solar Share 60% 66% 71% 69%
Calculation of Annual Solar Share Summary
Folie 27
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Lo
cal
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
(MW
) .
Peak CSP Capacity
Medium CSP Capacity
Base CSP Capacity
Peak Fuel Capacity
Medium Fuel Capacity
Base Fuel Capacity
Folie 28
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.12
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
LC
OE
($ 2
01
0/k
Wh
)
Average LCOEwithout CSP
Average LCOE withCSP
Average LCOE withPeak CSP
a
b
c
Case 2: Partial Substitutionof Fuel by CSP
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