flucast - android application to forecast flu
Post on 15-Jul-2015
100 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
FluCastRisk assessment and Forecast of
seasonal flu in real time
YIXIN HU, SANDEEP SHANTHARAM AND LASIFU TA
Data Sciences & Analytics Group, Computational & Statistical Analytics Division, National Security Directorate
PNNL-SA-104651
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Why Flu?
Infectious respiratory disease causing Seasonal Epidemic
$71-167 billion per year spent on “Flu” in the U.S.
Transmission rate between humans is high
Keywords of flu symptoms are expressed on Social Media
Rich and Varied data sources for disease analysis
August 6, 2014 2
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Need for Mobile App
Target Customers
- Epidemiologists – primary
- Transport / School / Company Officials – secondary
Customer Needs
- Decrease time to action
- Enhance collaboration
- Access to varied data sources
- Targeted flu news
- Mobile analytics app
August 6, 2014 3
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Flu Forecast – Approach
Prediction with data from historical flu cases, weather and social media.
ARIMA Model for flu prediction with Time-Series data.
Forecasting three weeks ahead of CDC.
Estimated flu cases with accuracy about 90%
August 6, 2014 5
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Flu Forecast – Implementation
Automated data retrieval from CDC and Programmatically access
weather and twitter data from NOAA and Twitter
Flask web framework for backend REST API with Mongo Database
suited for time series data
Jquery Mobile to build the HTML5 App
PhoneGap framework for transformation
August 6, 2014 7
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Data Sharing – Approach
Information Sharing and Collaboration between Epidemiologists
Sharing data within a group of trusted individuals
Communication between the analysts over E-mail
Sharing public domain information to Social Network
August 6, 2014 11
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Data Sharing – Implementation
Sharing the screenshot of the active window and data in tabular form
Information sharing through the phone’s email application
Ability to create groups with the contacts on the analyst’s phone
Sharing public level data to Social Networks like Facebook, Twitter
August 6, 2014 12
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Flu Stream – Approach
News stream from RSS feeds of flu related websites like CDC and WHO
Twitter real-time stream with geo-location for tweets related to Flu
Stay updated with the news from the RSS and Twitter in real time
Share the News article and Tweets to Social Network
August 6, 2014 15
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Flu Stream – Implementation
Flu Stream is updated every hour for both RSS and Twitter Stream
Items in News stream and Twitter stream are geotagged to allow analysts
identify the location associated
Geotagging by the list of keywords based on states and usage of natural
language processing to tokenize the keywords
Sharing to all third party apps with the phones in-built share function
August 6, 2014 16
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Outbreak Alert – Approach
Real-time monitoring of Twitter stream for the flu symptom mentions
Exponential Smoothing Model used in calculating the threshold value
Push Notification to the analyst, for possible outbreaks on a daily basis
August 6, 2014 20
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Outbreak Alert – Implementation
Live data stream from twitter allows for real-time analysis
Tweets are automatically geotagged as the data is streamed
Push notification to the analyst based on the twitter mentions being
higher than threshold value for high risk
Push Notification to the device with related information gathered from
twitter for Outbreak Conditions
August 6, 2014 22
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Future Direction
July 22, 2014 26
Option for robust prediction models
Offline access to the app
Subtyping Flu
Data source from multiple social networks
Better Twitter Data Analysis
Analyst reporting
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Acknowledgement
August 6, 2014 27
Technical Staff
Harisson, Joshua J
Dowling, Chase P
Henry, Michael J
Franklin, Lyndsey R
Lancaster, Mary
Managerial Staff
Spence, Christine N
Noonan, Christine F
Cowley, Wendy E
Corley, Courtney D
Didier, Brett T
top related