fix what matters
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Fix What MattersEd Bellis & Michael Roytman
Nice To Meet You
• CoFounder Risk I/O
About Us
Risk I/O
• Former CISO Orbitz• Contributing Author: Beautiful Security• CSO Magazine/Online Writer
• Data-Driven Vulnerability Intelligence Platform• DataWeek 2012 Top Security Innovator• 3 Startups to Watch - Information Week
• InfoSec Island Blogger
• 16 Hot Startups - eWeek
Ed Bellis
• Naive Grad Student• Still Plays With Legos• Barely Passed Regression Analysis
• Once Jailbroke His iPhone 3G• Has Coolest Job In InfoSec
Michael Roytman
Starting From Scratch
“It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories,
instead of theories to suit facts.”
-Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, 1887
Starting From Scratch
Starting From Scratch
Academia!• GScholar!• JSTOR!• IEEE!• ProQuest!
InfoSec Blogs!• CSIOs!• Pen Testers!• Threat Reports!• SOTI/DBIR!!
Twitter!• Thought Leaders (you
know who you are)!• BlackHats!• Vuln Researchers!
Primary Sources!• MITRE!• OSVDB!• NIST CVSS
Committee(s)!• Internal Message
Boards for ^!Text
CISOs
Data Fundamentalism
Don’t Ignore What a Vulnerability Is: Creation Bias
(http://blog.risk.io/2013/04/data-fundamentalism/)
Jerico/Sushidude @ BlackHat
(https://www.blackhat.com/us-13/briefings.html#Martin)
Luca Allodi - CVSS DDOS
(http://disi.unitn.it/~allodi/allodi-12-badgers.pdf):
Data Fundamentalism - What’s The Big Deal?
”Since 2006 Vulnerabilities have declined by 26 percent.” (http://csrc.nist.gov/groups/SNS/rbac/documents/vulnerability-trends10.pdf)
“The total number of vulnerabilities in 2013 is up 16 percent so far when compared to what we saw in the same time period in 2012. ”
(http://www.symantec.com/content/en/us/enterprise/other_resources/b-intelligence_report_06-2013.en-us.pdf)
What’s Good?
Bad For Vulnerability Statistics:
NVD, OSVDB, ExploitDB, CVSS, Patches, Microsoft Reports, etc, et al, and so on.
Good For Vulnerability Statistics:
Vulnerabilities.
What’s Good?
What’s Good?
What’s Good?
What’s Good?
What’s Good?
What’s Good?
Counterterrorism
Known Groups
Surveillance
Threat Intel, Analysts
Targets, Layouts
Past Incidents, Close Calls
What’s Good?
Uh, Sports?
Opposing Teams, Specific Players
Gameplay
Scouting Reports, Gametape
Roster, Player Skills
Learning from Losing
InfoSec?
Defend Like You’ve Done It Before
Groups, Motivations
Exploits
Vulnerability Definitions
Asset Topology, Actual Vulns on System
Learning from Breaches
Work With What You’ve Got:
Akamai, Safenet
ExploitDB, Metasploit
NVD, MITRE
Add Some Spice
Show Me The Money
23,000,000 Vulnerabilities!
Across 1,000,000 Assets!
Representing 9,500 Companies!
Using 22 Unique Scanners!
Whatchu Know About Dat?(a)
Duplication
Vulnerability Density
Remediation
Duplication
0
225,000
450,000
675,000
900,000
1,125,000
1,350,000
1,575,000
1,800,000
2,025,000
2,250,000
2 or more scanners 3 or more 4 or more 5 or more 6 or more
Duplication - Lessons From a CISO
We Have: F(Number of Scanners) => Number of Duplicate Vulnerabilities
We Want: F(Number of Scanners) => Vulnerability Coverage
Make Decisions At The Margins!
<---------Good Luck!
0
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Density
Type of Asset ~Count
Hostname 20,000
Netbios 1000
IP Address 200,000
File 10,000
Url 5,000
Hostname
Netbios
IP
File
Url
0 22.5 45.0 67.5 90.0
CVSS And Remediation Metrics
0
375.0
750.0
1125.0
1500.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Average Time To Close By Severity Oldest Vulnerability By Severity
CVSS And Remediation - Lessons From A CISO
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Remediation/Lack Thereof, by CVSS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
NVD Distribution by CVSS
The Kicker - Live Breach Data
1,500,000 !Vulnerabilities Related to Live Breaches Recorded!
June, July 2013 !
CVSS And Remediation - Nope
0
1750.0
3500.0
5250.0
7000.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Oldest Breached Vulnerability By Severity
CVSS - A VERY General Guide For Remediation - Yep
0
37500.0
75000.0
112500.0
150000.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Open Vulns With Breaches Occuring By Severity
The One Billion Dollar Question
Probability(You Will Be Breached On A Particular Open Vulnerability)?
1.98%=(Open Vulnerabilities | Breaches Occurred On Their CVE)/(Total Open Vulnerabilities)
I Love It When You Call Me Big Data
RANDOM VULN
CVSS 10
CVSS 9
CVSS 8
CVSS 6
CVSS 7
CVSS 5
CVSS 4
Has Patch
0 0.01000 0.02000 0.03000 0.04000
Probability A Vulnerability Having Property X Has Observed Breaches
Enter The Security Mendoza Line
Wouldn’t it be nice if we had something that helped us divide who we considered “Amateur” and who we considered “Professional”?
http://riskmanagementinsight.com/riskanalysis/?p=294
Josh Corman expandsthe Security Mendoza Line
“Compute power grows at the rate of doubling about every 2
years”
“Casual attacker power grows at the rate of Metasploit”
http://blog.cognitivedissidents.com/2011/11/01/intro-to-hdmoores-law/
Alex Hutton comes up with Security Mendoza Line
I Love It When You Call Me Big Data
Random Vuln
CVSS 10
Exploit DB
Metasploit
MSP+EDB
0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
Probability A Vulnerability Having Property X Has Observed Breaches
Be Better Than The Gap
I Love It When You Call Me Big Data
Spray and Pray => 2%
CVSS 10 => 4%
Metasploit + ExploitDB => 30%
Thank You
Follow UsBlog: http://blog.risk.ioTwitter: @mroytman
@ebellis@riskio
We’re Hiring! http://www.risk.io/jobs
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