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Finnish Experiences in Technology Foresight
Eija Ahola, Tekes
l Technology foresight within the Finnish innovation systeml “Embedded foresight”: integration of evaluation, assessment
and foresightl Tekes perspective: technology strategy and technology
programmesl Technology foresight for innovations within industrial
clusters: project cases
The Third Generation Foresight and Prioritization in Science and Technology Policy27.-28 February 2003, Japan
Tekes
Sitra
Key actors of the Finnish innovation system
Finnish IndustryInvestment Ltd
Business AngelsInvestors
Companies
Research institutes
Universities
Academy of Finland
The Science andTechnology Policy
Council
Ministry of Education
AssociationsInventions
Private investmentsin innovation
Technology Centres
Centres of Expertise
Polytechnics
Regional TE-Centres
Regional Councils
Finnvera
FinproEU structural fundsfor innovation
Ministry of Trade and IndustryOther ministries
Investments in different sectorslike environment, health and traffic
National public investment ininnovation and know-how
Key actorsof the Finnish
innovation system
Key actorsof the Finnish
innovation system
Invest in Finland
Million euros
Innovation systemResources and funding in 2000
Pub
licP
riva
te
Basic research Applied research Business R&D
Business developmentMarketingInternationalisation
R&D at companies3,100
BusinessAngels
380
Finnvera320 (50)
Tekes2.400
VTT210 (60)
Universities790 (350)
Ministries, TE-Centres and sectoral research 290 (210)
Academy of Finland 160
Tekes380
From abroad120
Venture CapitalistsPrivate 350Tesi 45 (80)Sitra 100 (2)
Finpro60 (30)
Found. Innov.5
Technology foresight within the innovation system
Ministry ofEducation
Academy ofFinland
“science watch for programme strategy”
Universities
Ministry of Trade and Industry
“TF-coordination”
Regional TE-Centres“regional development”
Other ministriesand theirinstitutes
“resource strategy”
Sitra“structural challenges”
Science andTechnology
PolicyCouncil
PARLIAMENT: Committee for the future
VTT“research strategy”
GOVERNMENT
Tekes“technology strategy, programme strategy”
IndustrialAssociations
”R&D and educationpolicies”
“Embedded foresight”: integrating evaluation, technology assessment and technology foresight
Ruud Smits: Technology assessment and user oriented impact evaluation, EU DG Research and Tekes –workshop on Impact evaluation, 1999 Helsinki
operational strategic conceptual
supp
lysu
pply
/dem
and
dem
and
TA
FOREVA
2
1
3
4
“Embedded foresight”: integrating evaluation, technology assessment and technology foresight
National technology foresight networks, cooperation and coordination: l Parliamentary Committee for the Future has established an
expert-network to support their goals and projects; TAl Ministry of Trade and Industry has established several
networks within TF; between ministries, between MTI, Tekes, VTT and Academy of Finland, network of TF experts
l The two key processes of Tekes (competitive selection of funding, technology programmes) rely on technology strategy which is based on technology foresight
l Industrial cluster strategy is typically made within a technology foresight project
l Evaluation of technology programmes include integration of TF and TA into evaluations
l (“embedded” and integrated approach is still conceptual; methodologies, methods and processes need to be developed)
TECHOLOGY & INNOVATION POLICY PERFORMANCE
TF
AB
SOR
TIO
N C
APA
CIT
Y
SOCIAL & HUMAN CAPITAL in TF
TF
RE
SEA
RC
H C
APA
CIT
Y
Assessment of technology foresight within the Finnish innovation system
- dispersed IS- individual goals- little experience and expertise in TF
- increasing- cooperation- “policy towards innovations”
- emerging research field- small groups, dispersed- little links with technologyexperts and policy
- foreign TF reports- technology push-based- projects - industrial clusters
The Finnish Parliament Committee for the future Regional technology foresight activities The key role of Tekes in the innovation system
Benefits and challenges of Finnish technology foresight practices
Strengthsl Exploitation orientation l Effective; minimum effort, resources and organisationl Ongoing objective-oriented and strategic processl Directly implemented on technology policy level l Based on expertise and technology pushl Problem-orientation, strongly focused, on-demand
Challenges:l New knowledge creation?l Systematic analysis and data coverage?l Cooperation on national level, common visions?l New markets and new ideas for technology and innovations?l Broader views; consumers, citizens?
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY COUNCIL OF FINLAND, 12.12.2002SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY REVIEW
KNOWLEDGE, INNOVATION AND INTERNATIONALISATION
“ After an in-depth investigation of the national organisation of foresight and relevant needs, it is evident that it is time to proceed to more extensive and concrete projects.
Finland has the prerequisites for a national foresight exercise.Network-building and the monitoring of foresight methods and needs are not enough to keep up interest in the futures outlook among researchers, business enterprises and other players and to encourage them to contribute to foresight.”
http://www.minedu.fi/tiede_ja_teknologianeuvosto/eng/publications/Review_2003.html
Selective project funding
Technology programmes
Activation for innovation
Development of the innovationenvironment
International
technological
cooperation
and inter-
nationalisation
of companies
These key functions of Tekes provide for technology foresight:
1. Sources of visions, goals and demand for technologies2. Operative measures to implement technology strategy3. Cooperation and links within the innovation system (domestic and international, companies, universities,
CROs, ministries, other actors in the innovation system )
These key functions of Tekes provide for technology foresight:
1. Sources of visions, goals and demand for technologies2. Operative measures to implement technology strategy3. Cooperation and links within the innovation system (domestic and international, companies, universities,
CROs, ministries, other actors in the innovation system )
Tekes, the National Technology AgencyThe main public financer for applied and industrial R&D
Tekes, the National Technology AgencyThe main public financer for applied and industrial R&D
Tekesvision & strategy
Technology strategy
- critical technologies- core competences
CompaniesUniversities,
Researchinstitutes
Industrialassociations
Regional strategies/regional technology strategies
Trends on market
Technological trends
Global megatrends
Values and goalsof the society
Societal foresightstudies
The Academy of Finland
VTT
MTI
International contacts:
- IFTF, NISTEP, EU, IAF, Social Sciences etc.
International contacts:
IPTS etc.
Tekes Technology Strategy process
Growth of global markets
Finnish share of global markets IncreasingDecreasing
Slow
Fast
Real Estate and Construction
Real Estate and Construction
Informationand Communications
Informationand Communications
MetalMetal
ForestForest
Chemicaland Bio
Chemicaland Bio
EnergyEnergy
WelfareWelfare
FoodFood
EnvironmentEnvironment
Dynamics of Finnish Industrial ClustersTechnology and competence are sources of renewalTechnology and competence are sources of renewal
The future is in knowledge and competenceTechnology strategy – a review of choices
http://www.tekes.fi/eng/publications/index.html
Market drivers and technology drivers
Business competence in the networked economy
Development of industrial clusters: competitiveness and renewal of existing industries,
birth and growth of new businessesWelfare in line with sustainable development
Intelligent products, processes and systems
Sustainable development
Welfare
Knowledge-intensive services
Information and communications
technology
Bio-technology
Materialtechnology
General trends:
globalisation, knowledge and competence, digital era, networked economy, sustainable development, social
development, technological trends
Information and communications technology
Material technologyBiotechnology
Key Areas of Industrial Renewal and Welfare-promotion
Sustainable development
l future energy solutionsl environmental technologieslecological effectiveness
and low-emission processesl life-cycle solutions
Knowledge-intensiveservices
l knowledge-intensive business services
l product-integrated servicesl new technology-related services
Intelligent products,processes and systemsl adaptive and intelligent
products, materials and systemsl navigation and identification
l virtual models
Welfarel information and communications
technology for health carel functional foods
l targeted pharmaceuticalsand diagnosticsl healthy and safe living environment
Business competencein the networked economyl networks with new valuel cluster cooperationl fast commercialisation
of ideasldigital economy
Potential applications
Tekes Technology Programmes - the main tool to implement technology strategy
on technology policy level
l extensive programmes initiated by Tekesand consisting of numerous projects
l focused on a key technology sectorl implemented in cooperation by companies
and research unitsl 43 on-going programmes in 2002 with
a total extent of 1.5 billion eurosl Tekes participates in five programmes
started by the Academy of Finlandl c. half of Tekes funding goes through
technology programmesl Tekes usually finances half of programme
costsl annually 2000 company and 800 research unit
participations
TotalclusterTotal
cluster
Communication equipmentCommunication equipment
Instrumentation and automationInstrumentation and automation
Content businessContent business
Communication servicesCommunication services
Electrotechnicalproducts
Electrotechnicalproducts
Software businessSoftware business
FunctionalfoodsFunctionalfoods
BasicfoodsBasicfoods
TotalclusterTotal
cluster
Growth ofglobal markets
Finnish share of global markets IncreasingDecreasing
Slow
Fast
Forest chemicalsForest chemicals
MachineryMachineryHarvestingand logistics
Harvestingand logistics
Pulp and paperPulp and paper
Wood productsWood products
Total clusterTotal
cluster
ICT cluster Forest cluster
Food cluster
Technology foresight studies for cluster dynamics
Cluster-based technology foresights: - three cases of micro-level technology foresight
New R&D programme strategyWider exploring of R&D results
ICT aided embedded in-house: internet-survey, internet-voting, workshops, scoring; programme participants
- Evaluation ofprogramme, relevance of research and impacts on clustering
Forest, pulp and paperSystem analysis at the University of Technology
New innovation processesNew ideas for industrial and CROstrategy
Expert study: mediaholes, weak signals, scenarios, technology screening
- Potentialinnovations- Possibilities for Finland
Media and communicationsVTT Mediatech
New ideas forindustrial andtechnology strategyWider networks
Mix: interviews, workshops, international benchmarking; over 100 participants from many sectors
- Potential technologies- Innovation processes
Food clusterGaia Group
Main “systemic” results (impacts)
MethodologyGoals of the project
Industrial cluster
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